Lab notes · week 42 of 2026 · this week, rewritten every night
Lab notes: the week of Oct 12 – 18, 2026
The lab has run 292,326 tests over 2 nights so far this week, the latest on Oct 13. 647 of them were ideas it had never tested before. 224 findings held after the latest night: proven coin drivers and series, surviving trading rules and kinds of event that move the odds. 4 were proven for the first time. 1 that had been proven stopped holding. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Tests run
292,326
over 2 nights
New ideas
647
tested for the first time
Holding
224
after the latest night
First proven
4
this week
Stopped holding
1
proven before, not now
§ 01 · Night by night2 nights
Night by night
as of · the lab's ledger, kept by each stage itself
tests run that night, the latest litblue under a day: findings holding after it· no run that night
| Night | Coin drivers | Series | Trading rules | Odds movers | Scoreboard | All tests | New ideas | Stopped holding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136,424 207 held | 5,934 1 held | 3,338 8 survived | 145 7 held | 120 16 held | 145,961 | 236 | 2 | |
| 136,818 210 held | 5,944 1 held | 3,338 7 survived | 145 6 held | 120 16 held | 146,365 | 411 | 7 |
So far, the ledger held 1,104,459 tests over 8 nights since Oct 6, 2026, 148,147 different ideas among them.
Source: the lab's ledger, every idea each stage tested, night by night · stored
§ 02 · First proven4 new
First proven this week
as of · coin drivers and whole-market findings
4 findings passed the bar for the first time this week: proven at a night's end and not proven when the week began.
- PROVEN DORA When it rose three times its usual daily move, DORA ended lower the next day more often than on any day 14 cases · no clear edge out of sample · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN DOCK When it traded five times its usual volume, DOCK ended lower the next day more often than on any day 48 cases · no clear edge out of sample · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN XPRT When a big spot ETF outflow day came, XPRT ended lower the next day more often than on any day 15 cases · no clear edge out of sample · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN MDT When it rose 5% or more while Bitcoin fell 2% or more, MDT ended lower the next day more often than on any day 15 cases · no clear edge out of sample · first proven · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
§ 03 · Stopped holding1 stopped
Stopped holding
as of · proven when the week began, not past the bar now
1 finding that had been proven no longer passed the bar after the latest night. A finding that stops holding stays in the record; it no longer counts toward a coin's odds.
-
STOPPED
OGN
OGN, a week after it traded five times its usual volume proven when the week began, not past the bar now · what moves OGN
§ 04 · Fired this week10 fired
Proven drivers that fired
as of · the event happened this week, so its window opened
10 times this week, the event behind a proven driver happened. What followed is counted in that driver's own record.
-
PROVEN
XRP
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, XRP ended higher the next day more often than on any day
288 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
IOTA
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, IOTA ended higher the next day more often than on any day
271 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
HBAR
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, HBAR ended higher the next day more often than on any day
220 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
ETC
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, ETC ended higher the next day more often than on any day
274 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN HBAR
When the 100 biggest altcoins fell 4% on average in a day, HBAR ended higher the next day more often than on any day
339 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
ADA
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, ADA ended higher the next day more often than on any day
281 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
ATOM
When its sector fell 5% on average in a day, ATOM ended higher the next day more often than on any day
232 cases · earned out of sample: right 56% of 1,538 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
-
PROVEN
GTC
When it rose three times its usual daily move, GTC ended lower the next day more often than on any day
15 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN WNCG When the 100 biggest altcoins fell 4% on average in a day, WNCG ended lower the next day more often than on any day 131 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
- PROVEN TRA When the 100 biggest altcoins fell 4% on average in a day, TRA ended lower the next day more often than on any day 131 cases · no clear edge out of sample · happened · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · its own pageShare on Xcopy link
§ 05 · The trading rules
The trading rules
as of · the nightly strategy search and its book
On its latest night of the week (Oct 13, 2026), the strategy search tested 3,338 versions of its trading rules; 7 passed both cuts.
7 rules in the book still pass; 0 entered it this week and 2 faded. Every rule that ever passed stays in the book with its paper record.
What the search keeps, and the closest misses it threw away →
§ 06 · How to read them
How to read these notes
as of · the bars each lab holds a finding to
A test is one idea checked against its history on one night: a coin after one kind of event over one horizon, a collected series against Bitcoin, Ether, the altcoins or its own coin, a whole trading rule, a kind of event moving the odds or against ordinary days.
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but thousands tested at once need far more, which is what the cuts below are for.
A coin driver or a series finding is proven when it passes a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, rests on 12 cases or more and holds in both halves of its history. Likely ones pass a looser bar, at about the rate pure chance would give: leads to watch, not facts. A trading rule must pass a 5% false-discovery cut over every test at once on the older 60% of the history, then a luck test of 1.645 or more on the same side on the newer 40% it was not chosen on, every case counted.
This week is still running: its numbers are rewritten every night and stored for the last time the first night after Oct 18, 2026.
§ 07 · More
More research
as of
Every week: week 42 · week 41