Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

The Mayer Multiple today: Bitcoin against its 200-day average, and what came after

Bitcoin closed at $81,682 on Oct 14, 1.13 times the average of its last 200 closes ($72,285): a Mayer Multiple of 1.13, over its average. On the 781 days since 2014 it was under 0.80, Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +5.6% over the next 90 days on average; on the 54 days at 2.40 or more (the line Mayer called too hot), −12.8%; after every day, +19.9%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): Bitcoin spent long stretches in each, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

1.13

over its average

200-day average

$72,285

Bitcoin closed $81,682

Under 0.80

+5.6%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

2.40 or more

−12.8%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's multiple

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes, Jul 19, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's close divided by the average of its last 200 closes: 1.00 sits on the average, 0.50 at half of it, 2.00 at twice it. Its maker, Trace Mayer, found in 2014 that buying under 2.4 had done best over the long run, and 2.4 has since been read as the line where Bitcoin runs too hot; the far low end, under 0.8, has come in the deep bear markets. Here every day from the 200th close on our record is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, held 30, 90 or 180 days.

Oct 14, 2026: 1.13, over its average. Bitcoin closed at $81,682 against a 200-day average of $72,285.

the multiple (a log scale)overheated, 2.40 and overfar under its average, under 0.80

Put the multiple on your site

Two lines anywhere in a page show today's reading and its last year, updated daily, with the link back here (more):

<div data-patternplus="index:mayer"></div>
<script src="https://pattern.plus/embed.js" async></script>

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next 90 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Multiple	Days	Stretches	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days
far under under 0.80	781	19	+2.2%	+5.6%	+23.8%
under 0.80 to 0.99	1,084	35	+1.1%	+7.9%	+15.3%
over 1.00 to 1.49	1,940	30	+6.0%	+23.5%	+66.2%
well over 1.50 to 2.39	582	15	+17.8%	+52.0%	+86.1%
overheated 2.40 or more	54	6	−1.0%	−12.8%	−26.9%
every day	4,441	—	+5.6%	+19.9%	+48.6%

Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Multiple	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days
under 0.80	−4.1% t −1.1	−17.4% t −1.4	−30.2% t −0.9
0.80 to 0.99	−6.0% t −1.9	−15.7% t −1.5	−43.0% t −1.9
1.00 to 1.49	+0.7% t 0.2	+6.3% t 0.5	+31.7% t 1.1
1.50 to 2.39	+14.0% t 1.9	+37.0% t 1.4	+43.4% t 0.7
2.40 or more	−6.7% t −0.5	too few	too few

Far under its average (under 0.80) came on 781 days in 19 separate stretches, the last on Jun 30, 2026. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 90 days 43% of the time (−4.5% in the middle case, +5.6% on average): −17.4% against the other days, −19.1% in the older half of the days and −17.0% in the newer. A luck test of −1.4, not past the bar of 3.0: 13 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Every day from the 200th close is a buy at that day's close: its average takes that close and the 199 before it, nothing after. Neighbouring days share most of their 30, 90 or 180 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold, which takes out the years Bitcoin simply rose. The averages on this page use every day. With 13 tests (five bands, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: 0.80, 1.00, 1.50 and Mayer's 2.40. The multiple is made of Bitcoin's own price, so its far ends come in a few long stretches (a bear market, a mania): hundreds of days can be a handful of holds that share no day. Moves are Bitcoin's, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 90 days against the other days: under 0.80 −17% · 2.40 or more 0%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026