The crowd vs the past

The crowd is Polymarket's last price for Yes, read once a night from its public data; markets with under $1,000 traded are left out. The question is read word for word: above or below a price on a day, between two prices on a day, or reaching or dipping to a price by a day. A question it cannot read, or about two coins at once, is left out.

History takes the coin's daily closes, highs and lows over the last five years. For a market ending in N days it looks at every past N-day window: would it have ended above the price, or touched it along the way, starting from today's price? Each past move is scaled by how much the coin moves now against how much it moved then (the last 30 days' daily moves, the ratio kept between a third and three times), so a calm market is not judged by a wild year. The unscaled share is in each cell's hover, with the number of windows.

Daily highs and lows catch most touches but not a spike inside a minute, and Polymarket settles many questions on one exchange's minute candle at a set hour: history's number is an estimate for the same question, not the market's own rule. Neither number is advice; both are dated.