What's the best time of day to buy Bitcoin? Every hour since 2017, tested
Over 3,218 days since Dec 22, 2017, Bitcoin's average day rose +0.11%, hour by hour: the best hour 21:00 UTC (+0.039% on average), the worst 23:00 UTC (−0.022%). Past the bar: the late US hours (21:00-24:00 UTC), +0.053% a day; 21:00 UTC, +0.039%. The late hours by halves of the days: +0.070% a day in the older half, +0.036% in the newer - it has shrunk; either way smaller than the trading costs of a round trip: a note on when to buy, not a trade. Past patterns, not financial advice.
as of · Binance's hourly candles, Dec 22, 2017 to Oct 15, 2026
"Buy in Asia, sell in New York", "Bitcoin dumps at the US open": traders swear by the clock. Here every hour of every day since Dec 22, 2017 is measured: Bitcoin's move from the close of one hour to the close of the next on Binance, averaged for each hour of the day in UTC - 77,118 hours in all. An hour whose average is clear of luck stands out in the chart.
the average move in that hour (solid: past the bar)under the bars: the four sessions
Every hour's numbers, both coins
Hour (UTC)
Bitcoin
Ether
00:00 UTC
+0.014% t 1.0
+0.010% t 0.5
01:00 UTC
−0.013% t −1.0
−0.022% t −1.1
02:00 UTC
−0.021% t −1.7
−0.022% t −1.4
03:00 UTC
−0.017% t −1.5
−0.002% t −0.1
04:00 UTC
−0.006% t −0.6
+0.022% t 1.7
05:00 UTC
+0.012% t 1.1
+0.019% t 1.4
06:00 UTC
+0.017% t 1.6
−0.010% t −0.7
07:00 UTC
−0.000% t −0.0
+0.006% t 0.4
08:00 UTC
+0.003% t 0.3
−0.002% t −0.1
09:00 UTC
−0.008% t −0.6
+0.007% t 0.5
10:00 UTC
−0.005% t −0.4
0.000% t 0.0
11:00 UTC
+0.027% t 2.4
+0.022% t 1.5
12:00 UTC
+0.009% t 0.7
+0.003% t 0.1
13:00 UTC
+0.016% t 1.1
−0.011% t −0.5
14:00 UTC
−0.018% t −1.1
−0.018% t −0.8
15:00 UTC
+0.024% t 1.6
+0.014% t 0.7
16:00 UTC
+0.005% t 0.3
−0.001% t −0.1
17:00 UTC
−0.004% t −0.3
−0.003% t −0.2
18:00 UTC
+0.004% t 0.3
+0.002% t 0.1
19:00 UTC
+0.012% t 1.0
−0.002% t −0.1
20:00 UTC
+0.011% t 0.8
+0.010% t 0.6
21:00 UTC
+0.039% t 3.1 ✓
+0.046% t 2.6
22:00 UTC
+0.036% t 2.8
+0.030% t 1.8
23:00 UTC
−0.022% t −1.6
−0.013% t −0.8
§ 02 · Sessions
The four sessions
as of · a day's hours added, each session
Session
Bitcoin, a day
Older half / newer
Years the same way
Ether, a day
Asian hours 00:00-08:00 UTC
−0.016% t −0.5
−0.034% / +0.001%
5 of 9
−0.001% t −0.0
European hours 08:00-13:00 UTC
+0.028% t 1.0
+0.011% / +0.044%
6 of 9
+0.028% t 0.8
US hours 13:00-21:00 UTC
+0.048% t 1.3
+0.087% / +0.010%
6 of 9
−0.009% t −0.2
late US hours 21:00-24:00 UTC
+0.053% t 2.5 ✓
+0.070% / +0.036%
7 of 9
+0.063% t 2.2
A session's day is the sum of its hours' moves, counted only on days with every hour of it on file. Bitcoin's average day, all 24 hours: +0.11%; Ether's +0.08% (its hours from Feb 12, 2021).
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each hour of the day is one number a day, so the days are the evidence: an hour's average with its luck test over the days, its older and newer half of the days apart, and its calendar years with 200 days or more. With 24 hours to choose from, an hour needs a luck test of 3.08 or more (5% over all 24, either way), a session 2.5 (over four), both halves of the days on its side and two thirds of the years. These rules were set before the first number was read, in our hour lab's first run on Oct 12, 2026.
Prices are Binance's spot market in Tether. Moves are before trading costs: a buyer who must buy anyway can pick the hour, but a few hundredths of a percent a day is far below what a round trip costs, so none of this is a trade on its own. Hours are UTC all year: 21:00-24:00 UTC is 4 to 7 pm in New York in winter and 5 to 8 pm in summer.
§ 04 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Bitcoin's late US hours (21:00-24:00 UTC): +0.05% a day · past the bar: Bitcoin 21:00 UTC; Bitcoin late US hours