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Does an oversold RSI bounce? Bitcoin's RSI and the top 100 coins', tested

Bitcoin's 14-day RSI stood at 47 on Oct 14: neither oversold nor overbought; its last fall under 30 was on Jun 2, 2026, its last rise over 70 on Sep 21, 2026. After its 55 falls under 30 since 2014, Bitcoin did +3.2% over the next 30 days on average; after every day, +5.3%. Among the 100 most traded coins, a fall under 30 was followed by −0.7% against the market over the next 7 days (3,126 times), a rise over 70 by +1.3%. No turn is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves agreeing). Past patterns, not financial advice.

Bitcoin's RSI

47

14 days, Oct 14

After a fall under 30

−0.7%

the top coins against the market, 7 days

After a rise over 70

+1.3%

the top coins against the market, 7 days

First written · 1 revision

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§ 01 · Bitcoin

Bitcoin's RSI

as of · Bitcoin's daily closes, Jan 15, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

The relative strength index (J. Welles Wilder, 1978) sets a coin's average gain over its last 14 closes against its average loss, on a scale of 0 to 100. Under 30 it is called "oversold" and read as a bounce to come; over 70, "overbought", and read as a drop to come. Here the turn is the day the RSI falls under 30 (or rises over 70), and each turn is a buy of the coin at that day's close, nothing read before it.

Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin's RSI is 47: neither oversold nor overbought; its last fall under 30 came on Jun 2, 2026, its last rise over 70 on Sep 21, 2026.

Bitcoin's 14-day RSI from Oct 15, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026: between 15 and 86, 22 days under 30 and 16 over 70; today 47Bitcoin's 14-day RSI, the last year70 overbought30 oversoldNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctOct 21, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherOct 28, 2025 · RSI 50 · neitherNov 4, 2025 · RSI 32 · neitherNov 11, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherNov 18, 2025 · RSI 31 · neitherNov 25, 2025 · RSI 31 · neitherDec 2, 2025 · RSI 45 · neitherDec 9, 2025 · RSI 50 · neitherDec 16, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherDec 23, 2025 · RSI 43 · neitherDec 30, 2025 · RSI 48 · neitherJan 6, 2026 · RSI 65 · neitherJan 13, 2026 · RSI 67 · neitherJan 20, 2026 · RSI 40 · neitherJan 27, 2026 · RSI 45 · neitherFeb 3, 2026 · RSI 26 · oversoldFeb 10, 2026 · RSI 32 · neitherFeb 17, 2026 · RSI 34 · neitherFeb 24, 2026 · RSI 31 · neitherMar 3, 2026 · RSI 46 · neitherMar 10, 2026 · RSI 51 · neitherMar 17, 2026 · RSI 59 · neitherMar 24, 2026 · RSI 51 · neitherMar 31, 2026 · RSI 47 · neitherApr 7, 2026 · RSI 59 · neitherApr 14, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherApr 21, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherApr 28, 2026 · RSI 56 · neitherMay 5, 2026 · RSI 68 · neitherMay 12, 2026 · RSI 60 · neitherMay 19, 2026 · RSI 45 · neitherMay 26, 2026 · RSI 43 · neitherJun 2, 2026 · RSI 22 · oversoldJun 9, 2026 · RSI 24 · oversoldJun 16, 2026 · RSI 42 · neitherJun 23, 2026 · RSI 37 · neitherJun 30, 2026 · RSI 30 · neitherJul 7, 2026 · RSI 50 · neitherJul 14, 2026 · RSI 56 · neitherJul 21, 2026 · RSI 62 · neitherJul 28, 2026 · RSI 48 · neitherAug 4, 2026 · RSI 50 · neitherAug 11, 2026 · RSI 46 · neitherAug 18, 2026 · RSI 55 · neitherAug 25, 2026 · RSI 80 · overboughtSep 1, 2026 · RSI 66 · neitherSep 8, 2026 · RSI 60 · neitherSep 15, 2026 · RSI 48 · neitherSep 22, 2026 · RSI 72 · overboughtSep 29, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherOct 6, 2026 · RSI 63 · neitherOct 13, 2026 · RSI 52 · neitherOct 14, 2026 · RSI 47 · neither47Bitcoin's 14-day RSI from Oct 15, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026: between 15 and 86, 22 days under 30 and 16 over 70; today 47Bitcoin's 14-day RSI, the last year70 overbought30 oversoldJanAprJulOctOct 21, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherOct 28, 2025 · RSI 50 · neitherNov 4, 2025 · RSI 32 · neitherNov 11, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherNov 18, 2025 · RSI 31 · neitherNov 25, 2025 · RSI 31 · neitherDec 2, 2025 · RSI 45 · neitherDec 9, 2025 · RSI 50 · neitherDec 16, 2025 · RSI 41 · neitherDec 23, 2025 · RSI 43 · neitherDec 30, 2025 · RSI 48 · neitherJan 6, 2026 · RSI 65 · neitherJan 13, 2026 · RSI 67 · neitherJan 20, 2026 · RSI 40 · neitherJan 27, 2026 · RSI 45 · neitherFeb 3, 2026 · RSI 26 · oversoldFeb 10, 2026 · RSI 32 · neitherFeb 17, 2026 · RSI 34 · neitherFeb 24, 2026 · RSI 31 · neitherMar 3, 2026 · RSI 46 · neitherMar 10, 2026 · RSI 51 · neitherMar 17, 2026 · RSI 59 · neitherMar 24, 2026 · RSI 51 · neitherMar 31, 2026 · RSI 47 · neitherApr 7, 2026 · RSI 59 · neitherApr 14, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherApr 21, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherApr 28, 2026 · RSI 56 · neitherMay 5, 2026 · RSI 68 · neitherMay 12, 2026 · RSI 60 · neitherMay 19, 2026 · RSI 45 · neitherMay 26, 2026 · RSI 43 · neitherJun 2, 2026 · RSI 22 · oversoldJun 9, 2026 · RSI 24 · oversoldJun 16, 2026 · RSI 42 · neitherJun 23, 2026 · RSI 37 · neitherJun 30, 2026 · RSI 30 · neitherJul 7, 2026 · RSI 50 · neitherJul 14, 2026 · RSI 56 · neitherJul 21, 2026 · RSI 62 · neitherJul 28, 2026 · RSI 48 · neitherAug 4, 2026 · RSI 50 · neitherAug 11, 2026 · RSI 46 · neitherAug 18, 2026 · RSI 55 · neitherAug 25, 2026 · RSI 80 · overboughtSep 1, 2026 · RSI 66 · neitherSep 8, 2026 · RSI 60 · neitherSep 15, 2026 · RSI 48 · neitherSep 22, 2026 · RSI 72 · overboughtSep 29, 2026 · RSI 61 · neitherOct 6, 2026 · RSI 63 · neitherOct 13, 2026 · RSI 52 · neitherOct 14, 2026 · RSI 47 · neither47

Bitcoin's RSI, a reading a day (the last year)

Bitcoin's next 30 days after each fall under 30: the oversold turn of 2014-02-13 +5.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-02-20 +0.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-03-27 −3.4%; the oversold turn of 2014-03-30 −2.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-04-02 +3.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-04-10 +25.4%; the oversold turn of 2014-07-30 −9.7%; the oversold turn of 2014-08-13 −13.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-08-17 −7.0%; the oversold turn of 2014-09-17 −15.1%; the oversold turn of 2014-09-28 −4.9%; the oversold turn of 2014-10-03 −9.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-12-18 −36.1%; the oversold turn of 2015-01-04 −13.6%; the oversold turn of 2015-01-13 −1.8%; the oversold turn of 2015-04-14 +9.9%; the oversold turn of 2015-08-18 +3.3%; the oversold turn of 2015-08-23 +0.7%; the oversold turn of 2016-01-15 +12.5%; the oversold turn of 2016-08-02 +5.8%; the oversold turn of 2017-07-15 +118.5%; the oversold turn of 2018-02-05 +42.8%; the oversold turn of 2018-06-12 −4.3%; the oversold turn of 2018-11-14 −45.6%; the oversold turn of 2018-11-30 −5.9%; the oversold turn of 2018-12-03 −0.7%; the oversold turn of 2018-12-05 +0.6%; the oversold turn of 2019-09-24 −12.7%; the oversold turn of 2019-10-03 +13.0%; the oversold turn of 2019-10-24 −1.4%; the oversold turn of 2019-11-21 −6.5%; the oversold turn of 2019-12-17 +31.6%; the oversold turn of 2020-03-12 +43.3%; the oversold turn of 2021-05-17 −11.9%; the oversold turn of 2021-05-21 −4.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-07 +2.0%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-21 +5.3%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-26 +6.5%; the oversold turn of 2022-05-09 +0.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-06-13 −10.0%; the oversold turn of 2022-07-01 +20.8%; the oversold turn of 2022-08-28 −2.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-09-06 +6.2%; the oversold turn of 2022-11-09 +7.6%; the oversold turn of 2023-03-09 +37.2%; the oversold turn of 2023-08-17 −0.2%; the oversold turn of 2024-06-24 +8.4%; the oversold turn of 2024-07-04 +6.4%; the oversold turn of 2024-08-05 +7.3%; the oversold turn of 2025-02-25 −1.6%; the oversold turn of 2025-11-17 −6.5%; the oversold turn of 2025-11-19 −3.7%; the oversold turn of 2026-01-31 −12.6%; the oversold turn of 2026-02-12 +7.5%; the oversold turn of 2026-06-02 −7.8%; every day +5.3%Bitcoin's next 30 days after each fall under 30Oversold turn, Feb 13, 2014 · Bitcoin +5.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $604.112014Oversold turn, Feb 20, 2014 · Bitcoin +0.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $561.86Oversold turn, Mar 27, 2014 · Bitcoin −3.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $475.00Oversold turn, Mar 30, 2014 · Bitcoin −2.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $460.00Oversold turn, Apr 2, 2014 · Bitcoin +3.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $439.00Oversold turn, Apr 10, 2014 · Bitcoin +25.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $363.12Oversold turn, Jul 30, 2014 · Bitcoin −9.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $563.84Oversold turn, Aug 13, 2014 · Bitcoin −13.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $548.81Oversold turn, Aug 17, 2014 · Bitcoin −7.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $496.86Oversold turn, Sep 17, 2014 · Bitcoin −15.1% over the next 30 days · bought at $452.09Oversold turn, Sep 28, 2014 · Bitcoin −4.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $375.35Oversold turn, Oct 3, 2014 · Bitcoin −9.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $358.74Oversold turn, Dec 18, 2014 · Bitcoin −36.1% over the next 30 days · bought at $312.67Oversold turn, Jan 4, 2015 · Bitcoin −13.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $264.002015Oversold turn, Jan 13, 2015 · Bitcoin −1.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $227.00Oversold turn, Apr 14, 2015 · Bitcoin +9.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $215.80Oversold turn, Aug 18, 2015 · Bitcoin +3.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $224.80Oversold turn, Aug 23, 2015 · Bitcoin +0.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $228.89Oversold turn, Jan 15, 2016 · Bitcoin +12.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $360.002016Oversold turn, Aug 2, 2016 · Bitcoin +5.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $540.00Oversold turn, Jul 15, 2017 · Bitcoin +118.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $1,971Oversold turn, Feb 5, 2018 · Bitcoin +42.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,9402018Oversold turn, Jun 12, 2018 · Bitcoin −4.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,530Oversold turn, Nov 14, 2018 · Bitcoin −45.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $5,922Oversold turn, Nov 30, 2018 · Bitcoin −5.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $4,041Oversold turn, Dec 3, 2018 · Bitcoin −0.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $3,884Oversold turn, Dec 5, 2018 · Bitcoin +0.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $3,770Oversold turn, Sep 24, 2019 · Bitcoin −12.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $8,4932019Oversold turn, Oct 3, 2019 · Bitcoin +13.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $8,224Oversold turn, Oct 24, 2019 · Bitcoin −1.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $7,412Oversold turn, Nov 21, 2019 · Bitcoin −6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $7,628Oversold turn, Dec 17, 2019 · Bitcoin +31.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,624Oversold turn, Mar 12, 2020 · Bitcoin +43.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $4,8002020Oversold turn, May 17, 2021 · Bitcoin −11.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $43,538Oversold turn, May 21, 2021 · Bitcoin −4.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $37,252Oversold turn, Jan 7, 2022 · Bitcoin +2.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $41,5662022Oversold turn, Jan 21, 2022 · Bitcoin +5.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $36,445Oversold turn, Jan 26, 2022 · Bitcoin +6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $36,809Oversold turn, May 9, 2022 · Bitcoin +0.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $30,076Oversold turn, Jun 13, 2022 · Bitcoin −10.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $22,487Oversold turn, Jul 1, 2022 · Bitcoin +20.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $19,280Oversold turn, Aug 28, 2022 · Bitcoin −2.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $19,556Oversold turn, Sep 6, 2022 · Bitcoin +6.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $18,791Oversold turn, Nov 9, 2022 · Bitcoin +7.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $15,923Oversold turn, Mar 9, 2023 · Bitcoin +37.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $20,3622023Oversold turn, Aug 17, 2023 · Bitcoin −0.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $26,623Oversold turn, Jun 24, 2024 · Bitcoin +8.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $60,293Oversold turn, Jul 4, 2024 · Bitcoin +6.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $57,050Oversold turn, Aug 5, 2024 · Bitcoin +7.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $54,019Oversold turn, Feb 25, 2025 · Bitcoin −1.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $88,6802025Oversold turn, Nov 17, 2025 · Bitcoin −6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $92,215Oversold turn, Nov 19, 2025 · Bitcoin −3.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $91,555Oversold turn, Jan 31, 2026 · Bitcoin −12.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $78,7412026Oversold turn, Feb 12, 2026 · Bitcoin +7.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $66,272Oversold turn, Jun 2, 2026 · Bitcoin −7.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $66,761every day +5.3%Bitcoin's next 30 days after each fall under 30: the oversold turn of 2014-02-13 +5.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-02-20 +0.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-03-27 −3.4%; the oversold turn of 2014-03-30 −2.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-04-02 +3.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-04-10 +25.4%; the oversold turn of 2014-07-30 −9.7%; the oversold turn of 2014-08-13 −13.5%; the oversold turn of 2014-08-17 −7.0%; the oversold turn of 2014-09-17 −15.1%; the oversold turn of 2014-09-28 −4.9%; the oversold turn of 2014-10-03 −9.6%; the oversold turn of 2014-12-18 −36.1%; the oversold turn of 2015-01-04 −13.6%; the oversold turn of 2015-01-13 −1.8%; the oversold turn of 2015-04-14 +9.9%; the oversold turn of 2015-08-18 +3.3%; the oversold turn of 2015-08-23 +0.7%; the oversold turn of 2016-01-15 +12.5%; the oversold turn of 2016-08-02 +5.8%; the oversold turn of 2017-07-15 +118.5%; the oversold turn of 2018-02-05 +42.8%; the oversold turn of 2018-06-12 −4.3%; the oversold turn of 2018-11-14 −45.6%; the oversold turn of 2018-11-30 −5.9%; the oversold turn of 2018-12-03 −0.7%; the oversold turn of 2018-12-05 +0.6%; the oversold turn of 2019-09-24 −12.7%; the oversold turn of 2019-10-03 +13.0%; the oversold turn of 2019-10-24 −1.4%; the oversold turn of 2019-11-21 −6.5%; the oversold turn of 2019-12-17 +31.6%; the oversold turn of 2020-03-12 +43.3%; the oversold turn of 2021-05-17 −11.9%; the oversold turn of 2021-05-21 −4.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-07 +2.0%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-21 +5.3%; the oversold turn of 2022-01-26 +6.5%; the oversold turn of 2022-05-09 +0.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-06-13 −10.0%; the oversold turn of 2022-07-01 +20.8%; the oversold turn of 2022-08-28 −2.4%; the oversold turn of 2022-09-06 +6.2%; the oversold turn of 2022-11-09 +7.6%; the oversold turn of 2023-03-09 +37.2%; the oversold turn of 2023-08-17 −0.2%; the oversold turn of 2024-06-24 +8.4%; the oversold turn of 2024-07-04 +6.4%; the oversold turn of 2024-08-05 +7.3%; the oversold turn of 2025-02-25 −1.6%; the oversold turn of 2025-11-17 −6.5%; the oversold turn of 2025-11-19 −3.7%; the oversold turn of 2026-01-31 −12.6%; the oversold turn of 2026-02-12 +7.5%; the oversold turn of 2026-06-02 −7.8%; every day +5.3%Bitcoin's next 30 days after each fall under 30Oversold turn, Feb 13, 2014 · Bitcoin +5.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $604.112014Oversold turn, Feb 20, 2014 · Bitcoin +0.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $561.86Oversold turn, Mar 27, 2014 · Bitcoin −3.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $475.00Oversold turn, Mar 30, 2014 · Bitcoin −2.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $460.00Oversold turn, Apr 2, 2014 · Bitcoin +3.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $439.00Oversold turn, Apr 10, 2014 · Bitcoin +25.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $363.12Oversold turn, Jul 30, 2014 · Bitcoin −9.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $563.84Oversold turn, Aug 13, 2014 · Bitcoin −13.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $548.81Oversold turn, Aug 17, 2014 · Bitcoin −7.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $496.86Oversold turn, Sep 17, 2014 · Bitcoin −15.1% over the next 30 days · bought at $452.09Oversold turn, Sep 28, 2014 · Bitcoin −4.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $375.35Oversold turn, Oct 3, 2014 · Bitcoin −9.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $358.74Oversold turn, Dec 18, 2014 · Bitcoin −36.1% over the next 30 days · bought at $312.67Oversold turn, Jan 4, 2015 · Bitcoin −13.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $264.002015Oversold turn, Jan 13, 2015 · Bitcoin −1.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $227.00Oversold turn, Apr 14, 2015 · Bitcoin +9.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $215.80Oversold turn, Aug 18, 2015 · Bitcoin +3.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $224.80Oversold turn, Aug 23, 2015 · Bitcoin +0.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $228.89Oversold turn, Jan 15, 2016 · Bitcoin +12.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $360.00Oversold turn, Aug 2, 2016 · Bitcoin +5.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $540.00Oversold turn, Jul 15, 2017 · Bitcoin +118.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $1,9712017Oversold turn, Feb 5, 2018 · Bitcoin +42.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,940Oversold turn, Jun 12, 2018 · Bitcoin −4.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,530Oversold turn, Nov 14, 2018 · Bitcoin −45.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $5,922Oversold turn, Nov 30, 2018 · Bitcoin −5.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $4,041Oversold turn, Dec 3, 2018 · Bitcoin −0.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $3,884Oversold turn, Dec 5, 2018 · Bitcoin +0.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $3,770Oversold turn, Sep 24, 2019 · Bitcoin −12.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $8,4932019Oversold turn, Oct 3, 2019 · Bitcoin +13.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $8,224Oversold turn, Oct 24, 2019 · Bitcoin −1.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $7,412Oversold turn, Nov 21, 2019 · Bitcoin −6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $7,628Oversold turn, Dec 17, 2019 · Bitcoin +31.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $6,624Oversold turn, Mar 12, 2020 · Bitcoin +43.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $4,800Oversold turn, May 17, 2021 · Bitcoin −11.9% over the next 30 days · bought at $43,538Oversold turn, May 21, 2021 · Bitcoin −4.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $37,252Oversold turn, Jan 7, 2022 · Bitcoin +2.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $41,5662022Oversold turn, Jan 21, 2022 · Bitcoin +5.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $36,445Oversold turn, Jan 26, 2022 · Bitcoin +6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $36,809Oversold turn, May 9, 2022 · Bitcoin +0.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $30,076Oversold turn, Jun 13, 2022 · Bitcoin −10.0% over the next 30 days · bought at $22,487Oversold turn, Jul 1, 2022 · Bitcoin +20.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $19,280Oversold turn, Aug 28, 2022 · Bitcoin −2.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $19,556Oversold turn, Sep 6, 2022 · Bitcoin +6.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $18,791Oversold turn, Nov 9, 2022 · Bitcoin +7.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $15,923Oversold turn, Mar 9, 2023 · Bitcoin +37.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $20,3622023Oversold turn, Aug 17, 2023 · Bitcoin −0.2% over the next 30 days · bought at $26,623Oversold turn, Jun 24, 2024 · Bitcoin +8.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $60,293Oversold turn, Jul 4, 2024 · Bitcoin +6.4% over the next 30 days · bought at $57,050Oversold turn, Aug 5, 2024 · Bitcoin +7.3% over the next 30 days · bought at $54,019Oversold turn, Feb 25, 2025 · Bitcoin −1.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $88,680Oversold turn, Nov 17, 2025 · Bitcoin −6.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $92,215Oversold turn, Nov 19, 2025 · Bitcoin −3.7% over the next 30 days · bought at $91,555Oversold turn, Jan 31, 2026 · Bitcoin −12.6% over the next 30 days · bought at $78,7412026Oversold turn, Feb 12, 2026 · Bitcoin +7.5% over the next 30 days · bought at $66,272Oversold turn, Jun 2, 2026 · Bitcoin −7.8% over the next 30 days · bought at $66,761every day +5.3%
Under 30RSIBitcoinNext 7 daysNext 30 daysNext 90 days
Jun 2, 202622$66,761 −7.5%−7.8%+17.7%
Feb 12, 202629$66,272 +1.1%+7.5%+19.7%
Jan 31, 202625$78,741 −12.0%−12.6%−0.6%
Nov 19, 202529$91,555 −1.2%−3.7%−26.3%
Nov 17, 202529$92,215 −4.2%−6.5%−25.4%
Feb 25, 202530$88,680 −1.6%−1.6%+23.4%
Aug 5, 202427$54,019 +9.9%+7.3%+27.3%
Jul 4, 202429$57,050 +0.5%+6.4%+6.3%
Jun 24, 202426$60,293 +4.3%+8.4%+5.4%
Aug 17, 202321$26,623 −1.7%−0.2%+42.2%
Mar 9, 202329$20,362 +22.8%+37.2%+29.4%
Nov 9, 202224$15,923 +4.6%+7.6%+46.0%
every daysince Jan 15, 2014—+1.1%+5.3%+18.8%
Bitcoin afterNext 7 daysNext 30 days
a fall under 30 +2.3% vs +1.1%
55 turns · t 0.8
+3.2% vs +5.3%
55 turns · t −0.6
a rise over 70 +3.5% vs +1.1%
113 turns · t 2.4
+10.8% vs +5.2%
112 turns · t 1.9

The list holds the newest 12 of Bitcoin's 55 falls under 30 (the chart has every one). Each kind of turn against all of Bitcoin's other days over the same hold, the luck test under it (✓ past the bar of 3.0, both halves of the days agreeing).

§ 02 · Coins

The top coins' RSI

as of · the 100 most traded coins each day

The same turns on each day's 100 most traded coins (stablecoins left out): 3,134 falls under 30 and 4,163 rises over 70. Each coin's move after its turn, less the market's over the same days (the equal-weight move of the most traded coins), so a falling market does not make every bounce look bad. The coins that turned on the same day count as one day.

AfterNext 7 daysNext 30 days
a fall under 30 −0.7% against the market
3,126 turns on 732 days · t −1.6
−2.1% against the market
3,121 turns on 729 days · t −2.3
a rise over 70 +1.3% against the market
4,131 turns on 1,273 days · t 1.6
+1.2% against the market
4,031 turns on 1,252 days · t 0.7

No turn is clear of luck among the top coins (a luck test of 3.0 with both halves of the days agreeing).

§ 03 · Newest

The newest turns

as of · the top coins, newest first

CoinTurnDateSince
SKHYoversoldOct 13, 2026−9.2% to Oct 14, 2026
STXoverboughtOct 12, 2026+3.3% to Oct 14, 2026
PLUMEoverboughtOct 11, 2026−12.9% to Oct 14, 2026
TIAoverboughtOct 10, 2026−8.2% to Oct 14, 2026
CHIPoverboughtOct 10, 2026−24.8% to Oct 14, 2026
STRKoverboughtOct 9, 2026+5.3% to Oct 14, 2026
JSToverboughtOct 9, 2026−0.7% to Oct 14, 2026
RAYoverboughtOct 7, 2026−23.8% to Oct 14, 2026

A coin's newest turn only. The move since is the coin's own, not against the market: a list, not a tip.

§ 04 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

The RSI takes the turn day's close and the ones before it, never one after: Wilder's own sums, the first average gain and loss the plain mean of 14 changes, each later one smoothed (the newest change weighing one 14th), and a missing close starts it over. Bitcoin's turns are set against all of its other days over the same hold, each calendar day weighing in by how many holds cover it, so a turn counts as the holds that share no day. The top coins' turns are each set against the market over the same days, each day with turns one observation, its luck test allowing for the days the holds share. With 8 tests in all, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the history on its side.

The RSI's length (14), its lines (30 and 70, Wilder's own) and the holds were set before any number here was read. Moves before trading costs and funding.

§ 05 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

  1. the top coins against the market over 7 days: after a fall under 30 −0.7% · after a rise over 70 +1.3% · Bitcoin's turns: 55 under 30, 113 over 70

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More research

as of