Mayer Multiple
Within luck1.13× its 200-day average ($81,682 against $72,285) · over its average
Bitcoin did +23.5% over the next 90 days after the 1,913 past days like it, against +17.1% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Research · re-read every night on our own data
Bitcoin indicators today, tested
27 indicators people quote about Bitcoin, each read on the newest close and tested on our own history: after readings like today's, the next 90 days ran ahead of the other days on 12 and behind them on 13; none is past the luck bar. Each line comes from a standing study's own numbers: what Bitcoin did after past days like today's, against the other days. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Updated 12 ran ahead13 behind0 past the bar
Bitcoin's own price
200-week moving average
Within luck1.23× its 200-week average of $66,520 · less than 1.5 times it
Bitcoin did +23.8% over the next 90 days after the 727 past days like it, against +10.0% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
2-year MA multiplier
Within luck0.92× its 2-year average of $89,097 · under its 2-year average
Bitcoin did +22.2% over the next 90 days after the 973 past days like it, against +22.4% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
MVRV (the realised price)
Within luck1.53× its realised price of $53,426 (MVRV) · 1.5 to 2.5 times it
Bitcoin did +10.4% over the next 90 days after the 790 past days like it, against +16.2% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Puell Multiple
Within luck1.04: a day's new coins worth $37.22M against their 365-day average of $35.78M · 1 to 2 times the year's average
Bitcoin did +20.1% over the next 90 days after the 1,888 past days like it, against +23.2% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
The power law
Within luck0.66× its power-law line of $123,662 · half to 1 times the line
Bitcoin did +26.6% over the next 90 days after the 1,348 past days like it, against +3.4% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Fall from the 90-day high
Within luck−5.7% from its 90-day high ($86,620) · a dip
Bitcoin did +23.3% over the next 90 days after the 1,245 past days like it, against +17.9% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Golden cross / death cross
Within luck50-day average over the 200-day; a golden cross on Sep 8, 2026 · golden cross within 90 days
Bitcoin did +21.4% over the next 90 days after the 10 past days like it, against +19.9% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
RSI
14-day RSI 47 · between 30 and 70
The study tests RSI's ends only: under 30 and over 70.
The study →as of
Volatility
Within luck30-day volatility calmer than 61% of its past year · usual
Bitcoin did +19.8% over the next 90 days after the 1,523 past days like it, against +22.4% after the other days, within luck.
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The four-year cycle
Day 907 after the halving, −34% from this cycle's peak
On the same day after their halvings, the 2016 cycle was −80% and the 2020 cycle was −69% from its peak.
The study →as of
Pi Cycle Top
Within luckThe 111-day average 53% under twice the 350-day (0.94× the 350-day) · under its 350-day average
Bitcoin did +12.6% over the next 90 days after the 1,411 past days like it, against +26.2% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
The crowd and the traders
Fear & Greed Index
Within luckFear & Greed 53 · neutral
Bitcoin did +19.6% over the next 90 days after the 493 past days like it, against +12.9% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Funding rate
Within luckFunding −0.5% a year on Binance · normal
Bitcoin did +14.2% over the next 90 days after the 1,778 past days like it, against +16.6% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Wikipedia readers
Within luckWikipedia readers 1.09× the year's usual · usual
Bitcoin did +23.7% over the next 90 days after the 1,715 past days like it, against +21.1% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Kimchi premium
Within luckKorean premium +0.6% · usual
Bitcoin did +13.4% over the next 90 days after the 1,715 past days like it, against +16.4% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Coinbase premium
Within luckCoinbase premium ranked 64 of 100 on its year · over its usual
Bitcoin did +9.3% over the next 90 days after the 640 past days like it, against +4.3% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Hedge funds on CME
Within luckHedge funds net short 32% of CME open interest · the year's least short
Bitcoin did +12.9% over the next 90 days after the 405 past days like it, against +17.4% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Hash ribbons
Within luckNo miner capitulation; the last recovery began Aug 28, 2026 · recovery within 90 days
Bitcoin did +9.7% over the next 90 days after the 35 past days like it, against +19.4% after the other days, within luck.
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Money and markets
VIX
A leadVIX 15.3 · normal
Bitcoin did +6.9% over the next 90 days after the 1,504 past days like it, against +24.3% after the other days, a lead not past the bar.
The study →as of
The Nasdaq
Within luckThe Nasdaq −3.3% from its high · near its high
Bitcoin did +22.3% over the next 90 days after the 2,778 past days like it, against +18.2% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
The dollar
Within luckThe dollar index +2.9% over 30 days · rising
Bitcoin did +8.0% over the next 90 days after the 931 past days like it, against +21.9% after the other days, within luck.
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Money supply (M2)
Within luckUS M2 +5.7% over a year · growing as usual
Bitcoin did +35.1% over the next 90 days after the 1,418 past days like it, against +15.5% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Fed net liquidity
Within luckThe Fed's net liquidity +0.2% over 4 weeks · adding
Bitcoin did +20.7% over the next 90 days after the 1,447 past days like it, against +18.2% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Stablecoin supply
Within luckStablecoin supply +0.9% over 30 days · flat
Bitcoin did +3.9% over the next 90 days after the 847 past days like it, against +16.9% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
Altcoins and Ether
Altcoin season index
Within luckAltcoin season index 64 · neither
the altcoins against Bitcoin did −3.5% over the next 90 days after the 1,612 past days like it, against +1.8% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
ETH/BTC
Within luckETH/BTC 1.00× its 200-day average · over its average
Ether against Bitcoin did +0.9% over the next 90 days after the 844 past days like it, against +0.8% after the other days, within luck.
The study →as of
How to read it
Every night each study puts Bitcoin's newest close into one of its bands - the Mayer Multiple's "over its average", Fear & Greed's "greed" - and looks back at every past day in the same band: what Bitcoin did over the next 90 days from there (30 for RSI's ends), against what it did after all the other days.
- Past the bar: the gap passed the study's luck test, strict enough for every test it runs at once, with the older and the newer half of the history agreeing.
- A lead: a luck test past 1.96 but not past that bar.
- Within luck: the gap is small next to how much the stretches in that band vary. Most lines read this way, most days.
- Too few to test: the band's past days come in too few separate stretches.
Days next to each other share most of a 90-day hold, so a band's thousand days can be a handful of separate episodes: the luck test counts them as that. Before trading costs and funding.