Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Is Uptober real? Bitcoin and Ether month by month

Bitcoin rose in 9 of the 12 Octobers on our record since 2014, +16.3% on average (the middle one +12.8%); across all 153 months it rose 54% of the time. For a coin that lands up 54% of the time, 9 or more of 12 comes up 12% of the time; with twelve months to pick from, one of them looks this good 79% of the time. Ether rose in 6 of its 9 Octobers. The 100 most traded altcoins beat Bitcoin in 1 of 8 Octobers. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Octobers up

9 of 12

Bitcoin, since 2014

October's average

+16.3%

Bitcoin

Any month up

54%

of 153 months

By luck

79%

a month this good, of 12

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Bitcoin

Bitcoin, month by month

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes, Jan 1, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

Each cell is one calendar month's move: the close on its last day against the close the month began from, for every month with at least 25 days on our record. Green rose, red fell, the deeper the bigger; the last row is each month's average over the years. The month still running is outlined.

Month	Years	Up	Average	Middle	Best	Worst	By luck
January	13	6	−0.4%	−0.2%	+40% 2023	−32% 2015	38%
February	13	9	+6.9%	+11.1%	+44% 2024	−31% 2014	21%
March	13	6	−0.9%	−2.1%	+30% 2021	−33% 2018	38%
April	13	8	+9.4%	+8.1%	+34% 2020	−17% 2022	41%
May	13	7	+10.6%	+9.6%	+70% 2017	−35% 2021	59%
June	13	7	+0.2%	+2.1%	+27% 2019	−37% 2022	59%
July	13	9	+7.3%	+8.0%	+24% 2020	−9% 2014	21%
August	13	4	+0.5%	−8.5%	+65% 2017	−19% 2015	8%
September	13	6	−2.3%	−3.1%	+7% 2024	−18% 2014	38%
October	12	9	+16.3%	+12.8%	+48% 2017	−14% 2014	12%
November	12	7	+7.1%	+7.7%	+52% 2017	−37% 2018	51%
December	12	5	+7.2%	−3.0%	+47% 2020	−19% 2021	28%

October 2026 so far (14 days): Bitcoin −2.3%, not counted until the month is over.

Across all 153 months Bitcoin rose 54% of the time. "By luck" is how often a coin that lands up that often would give a month's count of up years, or a better one: for October's 9 of 12, 12%. With twelve months to choose from, at least one looks that good 79% of the time, so "Uptober" is what luck alone would hand us most years.

§ 02 · May to October

May to October

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's months, each year's two halves

"Sell in May and go away" is the stock market's oldest calendar saying: the six months from May to October lag the six from November to April. Here each year's two halves for Bitcoin, each the months' moves compounded: May to October of that year, then that November to the next April.

Over 12 years Bitcoin did +46% from May to October on average and +44% from November to April; the winter half beat the summer in 7 of 12 years. A luck test of 0.0 over the years, not past the bar of 3.0: 12 pairs of halves are a short record, and a few bull runs decide the averages.

Year	May to October	November to April	The better half
2025–26	+16%	−30%	May to October
2024–25	+16%	+34%	November to April
2023–24	+18%	+75%	November to April
2022–23	−46%	+43%	November to April
2021–22	+6%	−39%	May to October
2020–21	+60%	+318%	November to April
2019–20	+72%	−6%	May to October
2018–19	−31%	−16%	November to April
2017–18	+379%	+43%	May to October
2016–17	+55%	+94%	November to April
2015–16	+31%	+45%	November to April
2014–15	−25%	−30%	May to October

§ 03 · Ether

Ether, month by month

as of Oct 15, 2026 · our daily closes

Month	Years	Up	Average	Middle	Best	Worst	By luck
January	9	5	+15.4%	+0.1%	+78% 2021	−27% 2022	58%
February	9	6	+4.0%	+8.1%	+46% 2024	−32% 2025	32%
March	9	6	−3.3%	+7.2%	+35% 2021	−54% 2018	32%
April	9	6	+17.6%	+7.2%	+70% 2018	−17% 2024	32%
May	9	5	+9.7%	+0.2%	+66% 2019	−29% 2022	58%
June	9	2	−11.6%	−8.6%	+9% 2019	−45% 2022	6%
July	9	5	+16.5%	+11.2%	+57% 2022	−25% 2019	58%
August	9	4	+1.6%	−7.4%	+35% 2021	−35% 2018	42%
September	10	4	−6.8%	−9.1%	+9% 2026	−21% 2017	30%
October	9	6	+5.9%	+0.7%	+43% 2021	−15% 2018	32%
November	9	5	+7.6%	+8.0%	+60% 2020	−43% 2018	58%
December	9	4	+7.2%	−0.7%	+72% 2017	−21% 2021	42%

October 2026 so far (14 days): Ether −9.8%, not counted until the month is over.

§ 04 · Altcoins

The altcoins against Bitcoin

as of Oct 15, 2026 · the 100 most traded coins after Bitcoin

An equal stake in each of the 100 most traded coins other than Bitcoin, picked again every day, against holding Bitcoin over the same days. Up here means the altcoins beat Bitcoin that month.

Month	Years	Up	Average	Middle	Best	Worst	By luck
January	8	2	+1.1%	−5.4%	+63% 2021	−30% 2025	34%
February	8	5	+3.7%	+4.8%	+28% 2021	−15% 2025	16%
March	8	4	+4.8%	+2.9%	+51% 2021	−22% 2023	38%
April	8	3	−6.1%	−6.0%	+31% 2021	−26% 2024	62%
May	8	3	−1.9%	−2.9%	+18% 2020	−19% 2022	62%
June	9	3	−10.4%	−18.2%	+12% 2020	−24% 2019	51%
July	9	4	−4.5%	−2.2%	+13% 2020	−24% 2018	49%
August	9	3	+3.2%	−3.9%	+47% 2020	−18% 2019	51%
September	9	4	−0.7%	−2.4%	+19% 2026	−27% 2020	49%
October	8	1	−14.5%	−10.1%	+1% 2019	−39% 2020	12%
November	8	5	+4.3%	+5.2%	+16% 2021	−11% 2018	16%
December	8	2	−8.0%	−10.5%	+18% 2023	−30% 2020	34%

October 2026 so far (14 days): the altcoins −5.5% against Bitcoin, not counted until the month is over.

In October the altcoins beat Bitcoin in 1 of 8 years (−10.1% in the middle one): whatever October does for Bitcoin, it has not done it for the rest of the market.

§ 05 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

13 years of Bitcoin's closes give each calendar month at most 13 readings (Ether's fewer): too few for any month to stand out from chance on its own, which is why this page shows a count beside the share of all months that rose rather than a verdict. "By luck" treats each year as a coin that lands up as often as all the months did, and gives how often that coin would match the month's count of up years or do better; for a month that rose less often than that, how often it would do as badly or worse.

Our record holds today's coins: altcoins that later vanished may be missing from the basket's early years, which would make them look better against Bitcoin, never worse. Moves are before trading costs and funding.

§ 06 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026The altcoins against Bitcoin: October up 1 of 8, −14.5% on average · Bitcoin: October up 9 of 12, +16.3% on average · Ether: October up 6 of 9, +5.9% on average

§ 07 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026