Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Does the Pi Cycle Top indicator call Bitcoin's top? Every firing and every cycle, tested

On Oct 14, 2026, Bitcoin's 111-day average ($72,282) stood 53% under twice its 350-day average ($154,294): the line it crosses when the Pi Cycle Top fires. Since 2014 it fired 2 times: Dec 17, 2017, 1 day after the peak of the 2016 cycle; Apr 12, 2021, 210 days before the peak of the 2020 cycle. It fired within 30 days of the cycle's peak in 1 of the 3 halving cycles it can be read on; the 2020 cycle peaked on Nov 8, 2021, 210 days from its nearest firing; the 2024 cycle peaked on Oct 6, 2025 without it firing. No band of the two averages is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing). Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

0.94×

the 111-day over the 350-day average

To the line

53% under

the line: twice the 350-day

Fired

times since 2014

Peaks called

1 of 3

within 30 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Firings2 since 2014

Every firing

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes, Dec 16, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026

The Pi Cycle Top is Philip Swift's indicator: it fires the day the average of Bitcoin's last 111 closes moves over twice the average of its last 350 (350 over 111 is 3.15, close to pi), and it is known for having come within days of Bitcoin's cycle tops. Here it is read on every daily close we hold, each firing with what Bitcoin did after it, and each halving cycle with the days from its nearest firing to its peak.

Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin closed at $81,682. Its 111-day average stood at $72,282, 53% under the line of twice its 350-day average ($154,294); it last fired on Apr 12, 2021.

Bitcoin (a log scale)its 111-day averagetwice its 350-day averagea firingeach cycle's peak

Fired	Close	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next 365 days	Highest close, next year	Lowest close, next year	The cycle's peak
Dec 17, 2017	$18,860	−42.2%	−58.5%	−66.1%	−81.4%	−0% Dec 18, 2017	−83% Dec 15, 2018	1 day after the peak of the 2016 cycle
Apr 12, 2021	$59,860	−17.1%	−42.8%	−8.2%	−33.1%	+13% Nov 8, 2021	−50% Jul 20, 2021	210 days before the peak of the 2020 cycle

Each move is from the firing day's close; the highest and the lowest close are those of the 365 days after it, against that close. A move not yet a year old shows a dash.

§ 02 · The cycles1 of 3 called

Every cycle

as of Oct 15, 2026 · each halving to the next, the peak as on the four-year cycle page

The cycle	The peak	Firings	The nearest	Within 30 days?
2016 cycle Jul 9, 2016	$19,103 Dec 16, 2017	1	Dec 17, 2017 1 day after the peak	Yes
2020 cycle May 11, 2020	$67,526 Nov 8, 2021	1	Apr 12, 2021 210 days before the peak	No
2024 cycle Apr 20, 2024 - today	$124,659 Oct 6, 2025	0	—	No

A cycle's peak is its highest close in the two years after its halving, as on the four-year cycle page; a cycle is counted once that window has passed and on Bitcoin's closes from Jan 1, 2014 (Bitstamp's to Aug 16, 2017, ours after). The indicator calls a peak here when it fires 30 days or fewer from it, before or after: a month, where the saying claims days. It did in 1 of 3.

§ 03 · After it

What came after the lines

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from each close

A firing comes a few times a decade, too few for a luck test. Every close has a reading, though: its 111-day average over its 350-day one - under 1, 1 to 1.5 times, 1.5 to 2 times, and 2 or more, where the indicator has fired - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that close, held 90 days, 180 days or a year, against all the other days.

Bitcoin's average next yearevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

111-day over 350-day	Days	Stretches	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
Under it under 1.00×	1,411	5	+12.6%	+36.0%	+125.9%
Just over it 1.00 to 1.49×	2,264	7	+24.9%	+59.3%	+191.3%
Well over it 1.50 to 1.99×	460	5	+44.2%	+78.7%	+19.4%
Past the line 2.00 or more×	96	2	−30.3%	−32.9%	−61.0%
every day	4,231	—	+21.7%	+51.9%	+145.0%

Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

111-day over 350-day	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
under 1.00×	−13.6% t −1.0	−23.3% t −0.7	−27.7% t −0.2
1.00 to 1.49×	+7.0% t 0.5	+16.3% t 0.5	+103.1% t 0.9
1.50 to 1.99×	+25.3% t 0.7	+30.2% t 0.4	−142.1% t −1.1
2.00 or more×	too few	too few	too few

Just short of the line (1.50 to 1.99 times the 350-day average) came on 460 days in 5 separate stretches, the last on Jul 8, 2021. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 365 days 50% of the time (+0.5% in the middle case, +19.4% on average): −142.1% against the other days, −221.4% in the older half of the days and −87.9% in the newer. A luck test of −1.1, not past the bar of 3.0: 3 holds that share no day, and a few long stretches decide the average.

§ 04 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Both averages take whole windows of daily closes up to that day (111 and 350 of them, none missing), nothing after, so every reading is one that could have been known that night. The indicator fires the first day the 111-day average closes over twice the 350-day after a day under it. Neighbouring days share most of their 90, 180 or 365 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day. With 9 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The firings and the cycles are counted, not tested: a halving comes every four years, so the cycles on file are the whole record and no test can tell two or three cases from chance. The averages need almost a year of closes, so the first readings come Dec 16, 2014; Bitcoin's 2013 tops, which the indicator is also known for, come before the closes we hold. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 05 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026fired on Dec 17, 2017; Apr 12, 2021 · within 30 days of the cycle's peak in 1 of 3 cycles

§ 06 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026