§ 01 · Halves
The two halves
Oct 15, 2026 · every lunar month, Jan 31, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026
"Bitcoin rises into the full moon and falls after it", some traders say; others swear by the opposite, and stock markets have their own lunar study (returns around new moons beat those around full moons, Dichev and Janes, 2003). Here each lunar month since Jan 31, 2014 is cut in two at the full moon - Bitcoin's move from our first close after the new moon to our first close after the full moon, and on to the first after the next new moon - and the two halves are set against each other, month by month.
Oct 14, 2026: the moon is 4 days old (waxing crescent); since our first close after the new moon, Oct 11, 2026, Bitcoin has moved −2.5%. The next full moon: Oct 26, 2026; the next new moon: Nov 9, 2026.
Each of 157 lunar months since 2014: Bitcoin's move from the new moon to the full moon less its move from the full moon to the next new moon; 83 months the first half did better Each lunar month: new moon to full moon, less full moon to new The moon of Jan 31, 2014 · New to full moon (to Feb 14): −16.7% · Full to new moon (to Mar 1): −15.2% 2014 The moon of Mar 1, 2014 · New to full moon (to Mar 16): +11.9% · Full to new moon (to Mar 31): −28.4% The moon of Mar 31, 2014 · New to full moon (to Apr 14): +0.8% · Full to new moon (to Apr 29): −2.3% The moon of Apr 29, 2014 · New to full moon (to May 14): −0.4% · Full to new moon (to May 29): +28.3% The moon of May 29, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jun 12): −0.6% · Full to new moon (to Jun 27): +5.4% The moon of Jun 27, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jul 12): +6.4% · Full to new moon (to Jul 27): −7.5% The moon of Jul 27, 2014 · New to full moon (to Aug 11): −2.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 25): −12.2% The moon of Aug 25, 2014 · New to full moon (to Sep 9): −6.1% · Full to new moon (to Sep 24): −10.5% The moon of Sep 24, 2014 · New to full moon (to Oct 9): −14.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 23): −1.9% The moon of Oct 23, 2014 · New to full moon (to Nov 7): −4.2% · Full to new moon (to Nov 22): +3.2% The moon of Nov 22, 2014 · New to full moon (to Dec 7): +6.8% · Full to new moon (to Dec 21): −15.2% The moon of Dec 21, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jan 5): −13.5% · Full to new moon (to Jan 20): −23.9% The moon of Jan 20, 2015 · New to full moon (to Feb 4): +7.8% · Full to new moon (to Feb 18): +4.6% 2015 The moon of Feb 18, 2015 · New to full moon (to Mar 5): +15.0% · Full to new moon (to Mar 20): −4.1% The moon of Mar 20, 2015 · New to full moon (to Apr 4): −3.2% · Full to new moon (to Apr 19): −12.3% The moon of Apr 19, 2015 · New to full moon (to May 3): +7.4% · Full to new moon (to May 18): −2.6% The moon of May 18, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jun 2): −3.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 17): +10.0% The moon of Jun 17, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jul 1): +4.0% · Full to new moon (to Jul 16): +7.9% The moon of Jul 16, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jul 31): +2.3% · Full to new moon (to Aug 15): −8.0% The moon of Aug 15, 2015 · New to full moon (to Aug 29): −11.8% · Full to new moon (to Sep 13): −0.4% The moon of Sep 13, 2015 · New to full moon (to Sep 28): +4.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 13): +4.4% The moon of Oct 13, 2015 · New to full moon (to Oct 27): +18.3% · Full to new moon (to Nov 11): +4.9% The moon of Nov 11, 2015 · New to full moon (to Nov 26): +14.0% · Full to new moon (to Dec 11): +28.3% The moon of Dec 11, 2015 · New to full moon (to Dec 26): −7.9% · Full to new moon (to Jan 9): +7.5% The moon of Jan 9, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jan 24): −10.4% · Full to new moon (to Feb 8): −7.8% 2016 The moon of Feb 8, 2016 · New to full moon (to Feb 23): +13.0% · Full to new moon (to Mar 8): −1.8% The moon of Mar 8, 2016 · New to full moon (to Mar 23): +1.4% · Full to new moon (to Apr 7): +0.6% The moon of Apr 7, 2016 · New to full moon (to Apr 22): +6.6% · Full to new moon (to May 6): +2.4% The moon of May 6, 2016 · New to full moon (to May 21): −3.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 5): +29.5% The moon of Jun 5, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jun 20): +27.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 4): −6.9% The moon of Jul 4, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jul 19): −1.0% · Full to new moon (to Aug 3): −16.3% The moon of Aug 3, 2016 · New to full moon (to Aug 18): +1.4% · Full to new moon (to Sep 2): +0.1% The moon of Sep 2, 2016 · New to full moon (to Sep 16): +5.9% · Full to new moon (to Oct 1): +1.2% The moon of Oct 1, 2016 · New to full moon (to Oct 16): +4.2% · Full to new moon (to Oct 31): +9.1% The moon of Oct 31, 2016 · New to full moon (to Nov 14): +1.0% · Full to new moon (to Nov 29): +3.8% The moon of Nov 29, 2016 · New to full moon (to Dec 14): +6.3% · Full to new moon (to Dec 29): +24.8% The moon of Dec 29, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jan 12): −16.7% · Full to new moon (to Jan 27): +13.7% The moon of Jan 27, 2017 · New to full moon (to Feb 11): +10.3% · Full to new moon (to Feb 26): +16.5% 2017 The moon of Feb 26, 2017 · New to full moon (to Mar 13): +5.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 27): −16.3% The moon of Mar 27, 2017 · New to full moon (to Apr 11): +17.2% · Full to new moon (to Apr 26): +5.7% The moon of Apr 26, 2017 · New to full moon (to May 11): +42.0% · Full to new moon (to May 25): +25.4% The moon of May 25, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jun 9): +23.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 24): −9.4% The moon of Jun 24, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jul 9): −2.2% · Full to new moon (to Jul 23): +9.9% The moon of Jul 23, 2017 · New to full moon (to Aug 7): +23.2% · Full to new moon (to Aug 22): +19.3% The moon of Aug 22, 2017 · New to full moon (to Sep 6): +14.4% · Full to new moon (to Sep 20): −15.6% The moon of Sep 20, 2017 · New to full moon (to Oct 5): +10.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 20): +40.0% The moon of Oct 20, 2017 · New to full moon (to Nov 4): +22.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 19): +9.3% The moon of Nov 19, 2017 · New to full moon (to Dec 3): +38.9% · Full to new moon (to Dec 18): +68.9% The moon of Dec 18, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jan 2): −22.2% · Full to new moon (to Jan 17): −25.1% The moon of Jan 17, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jan 31): −6.4% · Full to new moon (to Feb 15): −2.8% 2018 The moon of Feb 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to Mar 2): +10.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 17): −29.1% The moon of Mar 17, 2018 · New to full moon (to Mar 31): −11.5% · Full to new moon (to Apr 15): +20.7% The moon of Apr 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to Apr 30): +10.7% · Full to new moon (to May 15): −8.5% The moon of May 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to May 29): −11.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 13): −15.7% The moon of Jun 13, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jun 28): −7.0% · Full to new moon (to Jul 13): +6.2% The moon of Jul 13, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jul 28): +32.4% · Full to new moon (to Aug 11): −24.2% The moon of Aug 11, 2018 · New to full moon (to Aug 26): +7.5% · Full to new moon (to Sep 10): −5.8% The moon of Sep 10, 2018 · New to full moon (to Sep 25): +2.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 9): +3.2% The moon of Oct 9, 2018 · New to full moon (to Oct 24): −1.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 8): −1.3% The moon of Nov 8, 2018 · New to full moon (to Nov 23): −31.8% · Full to new moon (to Dec 7): −23.0% The moon of Dec 7, 2018 · New to full moon (to Dec 22): +16.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 6): +1.0% The moon of Jan 6, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jan 21): −11.6% · Full to new moon (to Feb 4): −1.8% 2019 The moon of Feb 4, 2019 · New to full moon (to Feb 19): +12.8% · Full to new moon (to Mar 6): −1.2% The moon of Mar 6, 2019 · New to full moon (to Mar 21): +3.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 5): +25.7% The moon of Apr 5, 2019 · New to full moon (to Apr 19): +5.1% · Full to new moon (to May 4): +10.9% The moon of May 4, 2019 · New to full moon (to May 19): +39.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 3): −0.4% The moon of Jun 3, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jun 17): +14.8% · Full to new moon (to Jul 2): +16.4% The moon of Jul 2, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jul 17): −10.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 1): +7.3% The moon of Aug 1, 2019 · New to full moon (to Aug 15): −0.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 30): −6.9% The moon of Aug 30, 2019 · New to full moon (to Sep 14): +7.8% · Full to new moon (to Sep 29): −22.2% The moon of Sep 29, 2019 · New to full moon (to Oct 13): +2.9% · Full to new moon (to Oct 28): +11.2% The moon of Oct 28, 2019 · New to full moon (to Nov 12): −4.2% · Full to new moon (to Nov 27): −14.9% The moon of Nov 27, 2019 · New to full moon (to Dec 12): −4.1% · Full to new moon (to Dec 26): +0.1% The moon of Dec 26, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jan 10): +13.8% · Full to new moon (to Jan 25): +1.8% The moon of Jan 25, 2020 · New to full moon (to Feb 9): +21.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 23): −2.1% 2020 The moon of Feb 23, 2020 · New to full moon (to Mar 9): −20.2% · Full to new moon (to Mar 24): −14.9% The moon of Mar 24, 2020 · New to full moon (to Apr 8): +9.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 22): −3.2% The moon of Apr 22, 2020 · New to full moon (to May 7): +40.2% · Full to new moon (to May 22): −8.2% The moon of May 22, 2020 · New to full moon (to Jun 6): +5.4% · Full to new moon (to Jun 20): −3.2% The moon of Jun 20, 2020 · New to full moon (to Jul 5): −3.1% · Full to new moon (to Jul 20): +1.0% The moon of Jul 20, 2020 · New to full moon (to Aug 4): +22.2% · Full to new moon (to Aug 19): +5.0% The moon of Aug 19, 2020 · New to full moon (to Sep 2): −3.1% · Full to new moon (to Sep 17): −3.9% The moon of Sep 17, 2020 · New to full moon (to Oct 2): −3.4% · Full to new moon (to Oct 17): +7.5% The moon of Oct 17, 2020 · New to full moon (to Oct 31): +21.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 15): +15.7% The moon of Nov 15, 2020 · New to full moon (to Nov 30): +23.4% · Full to new moon (to Dec 15): −1.4% The moon of Dec 15, 2020 · New to full moon (to Dec 29): +41.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 13): +36.5% The moon of Jan 13, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jan 28): −10.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 12): +41.7% 2021 The moon of Feb 12, 2021 · New to full moon (to Feb 27): −2.5% · Full to new moon (to Mar 13): +32.7% The moon of Mar 13, 2021 · New to full moon (to Mar 28): −8.8% · Full to new moon (to Apr 12): +7.3% The moon of Apr 12, 2021 · New to full moon (to Apr 27): −8.1% · Full to new moon (to May 11): +3.0% The moon of May 11, 2021 · New to full moon (to May 26): −30.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 10): −6.5% The moon of Jun 10, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jun 25): −13.9% · Full to new moon (to Jul 9): +7.1% The moon of Jul 9, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jul 24): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Aug 8): +27.8% The moon of Aug 8, 2021 · New to full moon (to Aug 23): +13.0% · Full to new moon (to Sep 6): +6.4% The moon of Sep 6, 2021 · New to full moon (to Sep 21): −22.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 6): +35.8% The moon of Oct 6, 2021 · New to full moon (to Oct 21): +12.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 5): −2.0% The moon of Nov 5, 2021 · New to full moon (to Nov 19): −4.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 4): −15.3% The moon of Dec 4, 2021 · New to full moon (to Dec 19): −5.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 3): −0.5% The moon of Jan 3, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jan 17): −9.1% · Full to new moon (to Feb 1): −8.3% 2022 The moon of Feb 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to Feb 16): +13.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 3): −3.2% The moon of Mar 3, 2022 · New to full moon (to Mar 17): −3.6% · Full to new moon (to Apr 1): +13.1% The moon of Apr 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to Apr 16): −12.8% · Full to new moon (to May 1): −4.7% The moon of May 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to May 15): −18.6% · Full to new moon (to May 30): +1.3% The moon of May 30, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jun 14): −30.2% · Full to new moon (to Jun 29): −9.1% The moon of Jun 29, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jul 14): +2.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 28): +15.8% The moon of Jul 28, 2022 · New to full moon (to Aug 12): +2.4% · Full to new moon (to Aug 27): −17.9% The moon of Aug 27, 2022 · New to full moon (to Sep 11): +8.9% · Full to new moon (to Sep 25): −13.8% The moon of Sep 25, 2022 · New to full moon (to Oct 10): +1.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 25): +5.0% The moon of Oct 25, 2022 · New to full moon (to Nov 9): −20.7% · Full to new moon (to Nov 23): +4.3% The moon of Nov 23, 2022 · New to full moon (to Dec 8): +3.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 23): −2.6% The moon of Dec 23, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jan 7): +1.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 21): +34.5% The moon of Jan 21, 2023 · New to full moon (to Feb 5): +0.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 20): +8.3% 2023 The moon of Feb 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to Mar 7): −10.6% · Full to new moon (to Mar 22): +22.8% The moon of Mar 22, 2023 · New to full moon (to Apr 5): +3.4% · Full to new moon (to Apr 20): +0.3% The moon of Apr 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to May 5): +4.5% · Full to new moon (to May 20): −8.1% The moon of May 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to Jun 3): −0.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 18): −2.7% The moon of Jun 18, 2023 · New to full moon (to Jul 3): +18.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 18): −4.2% The moon of Jul 18, 2023 · New to full moon (to Aug 1): −0.5% · Full to new moon (to Aug 16): −3.3% The moon of Aug 16, 2023 · New to full moon (to Aug 31): −9.7% · Full to new moon (to Sep 15): +2.5% The moon of Sep 15, 2023 · New to full moon (to Sep 29): +1.2% · Full to new moon (to Oct 14): −0.2% The moon of Oct 14, 2023 · New to full moon (to Oct 29): +28.6% · Full to new moon (to Nov 13): +5.6% The moon of Nov 13, 2023 · New to full moon (to Nov 28): +3.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 12): +9.7% The moon of Dec 12, 2023 · New to full moon (to Dec 27): +4.7% · Full to new moon (to Jan 11): +6.7% The moon of Jan 11, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jan 26): −9.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 9): +12.7% 2024 The moon of Feb 9, 2024 · New to full moon (to Feb 24): +9.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 10): +33.7% The moon of Mar 10, 2024 · New to full moon (to Mar 25): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Apr 8): +2.5% The moon of Apr 8, 2024 · New to full moon (to Apr 23): −7.3% · Full to new moon (to May 8): −7.9% The moon of May 8, 2024 · New to full moon (to May 23): +11.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 6): +4.2% The moon of Jun 6, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jun 21): −9.4% · Full to new moon (to Jul 6): −9.2% The moon of Jul 6, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jul 21): +17.1% · Full to new moon (to Aug 5): −20.8% The moon of Aug 5, 2024 · New to full moon (to Aug 19): +10.0% · Full to new moon (to Sep 3): −3.3% The moon of Sep 3, 2024 · New to full moon (to Sep 18): +7.4% · Full to new moon (to Oct 3): −1.6% The moon of Oct 3, 2024 · New to full moon (to Oct 17): +11.0% · Full to new moon (to Nov 1): +3.1% The moon of Nov 1, 2024 · New to full moon (to Nov 16): +30.3% · Full to new moon (to Dec 1): +7.3% The moon of Dec 1, 2024 · New to full moon (to Dec 15): +7.5% · Full to new moon (to Dec 30): −11.2% The moon of Dec 30, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jan 14): +4.1% · Full to new moon (to Jan 29): +7.4% The moon of Jan 29, 2025 · New to full moon (to Feb 13): −6.9% · Full to new moon (to Feb 27): −12.3% 2025 The moon of Feb 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to Mar 14): −0.9% · Full to new moon (to Mar 29): −1.6% The moon of Mar 29, 2025 · New to full moon (to Apr 13): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Apr 27): +11.9% The moon of Apr 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to May 12): +9.6% · Full to new moon (to May 27): +6.0% The moon of May 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jun 11): −0.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 25): −1.2% The moon of Jun 25, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jul 10): +8.1% · Full to new moon (to Jul 25): +1.4% The moon of Jul 25, 2025 · New to full moon (to Aug 9): −1.0% · Full to new moon (to Aug 23): −0.9% The moon of Aug 23, 2025 · New to full moon (to Sep 7): −3.7% · Full to new moon (to Sep 22): +1.4% The moon of Sep 22, 2025 · New to full moon (to Oct 7): +7.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 22): −11.3% The moon of Oct 22, 2025 · New to full moon (to Nov 5): −3.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 20): −16.6% The moon of Nov 20, 2025 · New to full moon (to Dec 5): +3.1% · Full to new moon (to Dec 20): −1.1% The moon of Dec 20, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jan 3): +2.6% · Full to new moon (to Jan 18): +3.4% The moon of Jan 18, 2026 · New to full moon (to Feb 2): −15.9% · Full to new moon (to Feb 17): −14.3% 2026 The moon of Feb 17, 2026 · New to full moon (to Mar 3): +1.2% · Full to new moon (to Mar 18): +4.3% The moon of Mar 18, 2026 · New to full moon (to Apr 2): −6.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 17): +15.2% The moon of Apr 17, 2026 · New to full moon (to May 1): +1.5% · Full to new moon (to May 16): −0.1% The moon of May 16, 2026 · New to full moon (to May 31): −5.7% · Full to new moon (to Jun 15): −10.0% The moon of Jun 15, 2026 · New to full moon (to Jun 30): −11.6% · Full to new moon (to Jul 14): +10.9% The moon of Jul 14, 2026 · New to full moon (to Jul 29): −1.6% · Full to new moon (to Aug 13): −0.8% The moon of Aug 13, 2026 · New to full moon (to Aug 28): +22.6% · Full to new moon (to Sep 11): −0.8% The moon of Sep 11, 2026 · New to full moon (to Sep 26): +9.3% · Full to new moon (to Oct 11): −0.8% Each of 157 lunar months since 2014: Bitcoin's move from the new moon to the full moon less its move from the full moon to the next new moon; 83 months the first half did better Each month: new to full moon, less full to new The moon of Jan 31, 2014 · New to full moon (to Feb 14): −16.7% · Full to new moon (to Mar 1): −15.2% 2014 The moon of Mar 1, 2014 · New to full moon (to Mar 16): +11.9% · Full to new moon (to Mar 31): −28.4% The moon of Mar 31, 2014 · New to full moon (to Apr 14): +0.8% · Full to new moon (to Apr 29): −2.3% The moon of Apr 29, 2014 · New to full moon (to May 14): −0.4% · Full to new moon (to May 29): +28.3% The moon of May 29, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jun 12): −0.6% · Full to new moon (to Jun 27): +5.4% The moon of Jun 27, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jul 12): +6.4% · Full to new moon (to Jul 27): −7.5% The moon of Jul 27, 2014 · New to full moon (to Aug 11): −2.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 25): −12.2% The moon of Aug 25, 2014 · New to full moon (to Sep 9): −6.1% · Full to new moon (to Sep 24): −10.5% The moon of Sep 24, 2014 · New to full moon (to Oct 9): −14.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 23): −1.9% The moon of Oct 23, 2014 · New to full moon (to Nov 7): −4.2% · Full to new moon (to Nov 22): +3.2% The moon of Nov 22, 2014 · New to full moon (to Dec 7): +6.8% · Full to new moon (to Dec 21): −15.2% The moon of Dec 21, 2014 · New to full moon (to Jan 5): −13.5% · Full to new moon (to Jan 20): −23.9% The moon of Jan 20, 2015 · New to full moon (to Feb 4): +7.8% · Full to new moon (to Feb 18): +4.6% The moon of Feb 18, 2015 · New to full moon (to Mar 5): +15.0% · Full to new moon (to Mar 20): −4.1% The moon of Mar 20, 2015 · New to full moon (to Apr 4): −3.2% · Full to new moon (to Apr 19): −12.3% The moon of Apr 19, 2015 · New to full moon (to May 3): +7.4% · Full to new moon (to May 18): −2.6% The moon of May 18, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jun 2): −3.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 17): +10.0% The moon of Jun 17, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jul 1): +4.0% · Full to new moon (to Jul 16): +7.9% The moon of Jul 16, 2015 · New to full moon (to Jul 31): +2.3% · Full to new moon (to Aug 15): −8.0% The moon of Aug 15, 2015 · New to full moon (to Aug 29): −11.8% · Full to new moon (to Sep 13): −0.4% The moon of Sep 13, 2015 · New to full moon (to Sep 28): +4.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 13): +4.4% The moon of Oct 13, 2015 · New to full moon (to Oct 27): +18.3% · Full to new moon (to Nov 11): +4.9% The moon of Nov 11, 2015 · New to full moon (to Nov 26): +14.0% · Full to new moon (to Dec 11): +28.3% The moon of Dec 11, 2015 · New to full moon (to Dec 26): −7.9% · Full to new moon (to Jan 9): +7.5% The moon of Jan 9, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jan 24): −10.4% · Full to new moon (to Feb 8): −7.8% 2016 The moon of Feb 8, 2016 · New to full moon (to Feb 23): +13.0% · Full to new moon (to Mar 8): −1.8% The moon of Mar 8, 2016 · New to full moon (to Mar 23): +1.4% · Full to new moon (to Apr 7): +0.6% The moon of Apr 7, 2016 · New to full moon (to Apr 22): +6.6% · Full to new moon (to May 6): +2.4% The moon of May 6, 2016 · New to full moon (to May 21): −3.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 5): +29.5% The moon of Jun 5, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jun 20): +27.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 4): −6.9% The moon of Jul 4, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jul 19): −1.0% · Full to new moon (to Aug 3): −16.3% The moon of Aug 3, 2016 · New to full moon (to Aug 18): +1.4% · Full to new moon (to Sep 2): +0.1% The moon of Sep 2, 2016 · New to full moon (to Sep 16): +5.9% · Full to new moon (to Oct 1): +1.2% The moon of Oct 1, 2016 · New to full moon (to Oct 16): +4.2% · Full to new moon (to Oct 31): +9.1% The moon of Oct 31, 2016 · New to full moon (to Nov 14): +1.0% · Full to new moon (to Nov 29): +3.8% The moon of Nov 29, 2016 · New to full moon (to Dec 14): +6.3% · Full to new moon (to Dec 29): +24.8% The moon of Dec 29, 2016 · New to full moon (to Jan 12): −16.7% · Full to new moon (to Jan 27): +13.7% The moon of Jan 27, 2017 · New to full moon (to Feb 11): +10.3% · Full to new moon (to Feb 26): +16.5% The moon of Feb 26, 2017 · New to full moon (to Mar 13): +5.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 27): −16.3% The moon of Mar 27, 2017 · New to full moon (to Apr 11): +17.2% · Full to new moon (to Apr 26): +5.7% The moon of Apr 26, 2017 · New to full moon (to May 11): +42.0% · Full to new moon (to May 25): +25.4% The moon of May 25, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jun 9): +23.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 24): −9.4% The moon of Jun 24, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jul 9): −2.2% · Full to new moon (to Jul 23): +9.9% The moon of Jul 23, 2017 · New to full moon (to Aug 7): +23.2% · Full to new moon (to Aug 22): +19.3% The moon of Aug 22, 2017 · New to full moon (to Sep 6): +14.4% · Full to new moon (to Sep 20): −15.6% The moon of Sep 20, 2017 · New to full moon (to Oct 5): +10.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 20): +40.0% The moon of Oct 20, 2017 · New to full moon (to Nov 4): +22.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 19): +9.3% The moon of Nov 19, 2017 · New to full moon (to Dec 3): +38.9% · Full to new moon (to Dec 18): +68.9% The moon of Dec 18, 2017 · New to full moon (to Jan 2): −22.2% · Full to new moon (to Jan 17): −25.1% The moon of Jan 17, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jan 31): −6.4% · Full to new moon (to Feb 15): −2.8% 2018 The moon of Feb 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to Mar 2): +10.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 17): −29.1% The moon of Mar 17, 2018 · New to full moon (to Mar 31): −11.5% · Full to new moon (to Apr 15): +20.7% The moon of Apr 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to Apr 30): +10.7% · Full to new moon (to May 15): −8.5% The moon of May 15, 2018 · New to full moon (to May 29): −11.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 13): −15.7% The moon of Jun 13, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jun 28): −7.0% · Full to new moon (to Jul 13): +6.2% The moon of Jul 13, 2018 · New to full moon (to Jul 28): +32.4% · Full to new moon (to Aug 11): −24.2% The moon of Aug 11, 2018 · New to full moon (to Aug 26): +7.5% · Full to new moon (to Sep 10): −5.8% The moon of Sep 10, 2018 · New to full moon (to Sep 25): +2.1% · Full to new moon (to Oct 9): +3.2% The moon of Oct 9, 2018 · New to full moon (to Oct 24): −1.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 8): −1.3% The moon of Nov 8, 2018 · New to full moon (to Nov 23): −31.8% · Full to new moon (to Dec 7): −23.0% The moon of Dec 7, 2018 · New to full moon (to Dec 22): +16.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 6): +1.0% The moon of Jan 6, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jan 21): −11.6% · Full to new moon (to Feb 4): −1.8% The moon of Feb 4, 2019 · New to full moon (to Feb 19): +12.8% · Full to new moon (to Mar 6): −1.2% The moon of Mar 6, 2019 · New to full moon (to Mar 21): +3.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 5): +25.7% The moon of Apr 5, 2019 · New to full moon (to Apr 19): +5.1% · Full to new moon (to May 4): +10.9% The moon of May 4, 2019 · New to full moon (to May 19): +39.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 3): −0.4% The moon of Jun 3, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jun 17): +14.8% · Full to new moon (to Jul 2): +16.4% The moon of Jul 2, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jul 17): −10.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 1): +7.3% The moon of Aug 1, 2019 · New to full moon (to Aug 15): −0.8% · Full to new moon (to Aug 30): −6.9% The moon of Aug 30, 2019 · New to full moon (to Sep 14): +7.8% · Full to new moon (to Sep 29): −22.2% The moon of Sep 29, 2019 · New to full moon (to Oct 13): +2.9% · Full to new moon (to Oct 28): +11.2% The moon of Oct 28, 2019 · New to full moon (to Nov 12): −4.2% · Full to new moon (to Nov 27): −14.9% The moon of Nov 27, 2019 · New to full moon (to Dec 12): −4.1% · Full to new moon (to Dec 26): +0.1% The moon of Dec 26, 2019 · New to full moon (to Jan 10): +13.8% · Full to new moon (to Jan 25): +1.8% The moon of Jan 25, 2020 · New to full moon (to Feb 9): +21.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 23): −2.1% 2020 The moon of Feb 23, 2020 · New to full moon (to Mar 9): −20.2% · Full to new moon (to Mar 24): −14.9% The moon of Mar 24, 2020 · New to full moon (to Apr 8): +9.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 22): −3.2% The moon of Apr 22, 2020 · New to full moon (to May 7): +40.2% · Full to new moon (to May 22): −8.2% The moon of May 22, 2020 · New to full moon (to Jun 6): +5.4% · Full to new moon (to Jun 20): −3.2% The moon of Jun 20, 2020 · New to full moon (to Jul 5): −3.1% · Full to new moon (to Jul 20): +1.0% The moon of Jul 20, 2020 · New to full moon (to Aug 4): +22.2% · Full to new moon (to Aug 19): +5.0% The moon of Aug 19, 2020 · New to full moon (to Sep 2): −3.1% · Full to new moon (to Sep 17): −3.9% The moon of Sep 17, 2020 · New to full moon (to Oct 2): −3.4% · Full to new moon (to Oct 17): +7.5% The moon of Oct 17, 2020 · New to full moon (to Oct 31): +21.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 15): +15.7% The moon of Nov 15, 2020 · New to full moon (to Nov 30): +23.4% · Full to new moon (to Dec 15): −1.4% The moon of Dec 15, 2020 · New to full moon (to Dec 29): +41.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 13): +36.5% The moon of Jan 13, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jan 28): −10.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 12): +41.7% The moon of Feb 12, 2021 · New to full moon (to Feb 27): −2.5% · Full to new moon (to Mar 13): +32.7% The moon of Mar 13, 2021 · New to full moon (to Mar 28): −8.8% · Full to new moon (to Apr 12): +7.3% The moon of Apr 12, 2021 · New to full moon (to Apr 27): −8.1% · Full to new moon (to May 11): +3.0% The moon of May 11, 2021 · New to full moon (to May 26): −30.8% · Full to new moon (to Jun 10): −6.5% The moon of Jun 10, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jun 25): −13.9% · Full to new moon (to Jul 9): +7.1% The moon of Jul 9, 2021 · New to full moon (to Jul 24): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Aug 8): +27.8% The moon of Aug 8, 2021 · New to full moon (to Aug 23): +13.0% · Full to new moon (to Sep 6): +6.4% The moon of Sep 6, 2021 · New to full moon (to Sep 21): −22.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 6): +35.8% The moon of Oct 6, 2021 · New to full moon (to Oct 21): +12.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 5): −2.0% The moon of Nov 5, 2021 · New to full moon (to Nov 19): −4.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 4): −15.3% The moon of Dec 4, 2021 · New to full moon (to Dec 19): −5.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 3): −0.5% The moon of Jan 3, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jan 17): −9.1% · Full to new moon (to Feb 1): −8.3% 2022 The moon of Feb 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to Feb 16): +13.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 3): −3.2% The moon of Mar 3, 2022 · New to full moon (to Mar 17): −3.6% · Full to new moon (to Apr 1): +13.1% The moon of Apr 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to Apr 16): −12.8% · Full to new moon (to May 1): −4.7% The moon of May 1, 2022 · New to full moon (to May 15): −18.6% · Full to new moon (to May 30): +1.3% The moon of May 30, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jun 14): −30.2% · Full to new moon (to Jun 29): −9.1% The moon of Jun 29, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jul 14): +2.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 28): +15.8% The moon of Jul 28, 2022 · New to full moon (to Aug 12): +2.4% · Full to new moon (to Aug 27): −17.9% The moon of Aug 27, 2022 · New to full moon (to Sep 11): +8.9% · Full to new moon (to Sep 25): −13.8% The moon of Sep 25, 2022 · New to full moon (to Oct 10): +1.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 25): +5.0% The moon of Oct 25, 2022 · New to full moon (to Nov 9): −20.7% · Full to new moon (to Nov 23): +4.3% The moon of Nov 23, 2022 · New to full moon (to Dec 8): +3.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 23): −2.6% The moon of Dec 23, 2022 · New to full moon (to Jan 7): +1.0% · Full to new moon (to Jan 21): +34.5% The moon of Jan 21, 2023 · New to full moon (to Feb 5): +0.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 20): +8.3% The moon of Feb 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to Mar 7): −10.6% · Full to new moon (to Mar 22): +22.8% The moon of Mar 22, 2023 · New to full moon (to Apr 5): +3.4% · Full to new moon (to Apr 20): +0.3% The moon of Apr 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to May 5): +4.5% · Full to new moon (to May 20): −8.1% The moon of May 20, 2023 · New to full moon (to Jun 3): −0.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 18): −2.7% The moon of Jun 18, 2023 · New to full moon (to Jul 3): +18.3% · Full to new moon (to Jul 18): −4.2% The moon of Jul 18, 2023 · New to full moon (to Aug 1): −0.5% · Full to new moon (to Aug 16): −3.3% The moon of Aug 16, 2023 · New to full moon (to Aug 31): −9.7% · Full to new moon (to Sep 15): +2.5% The moon of Sep 15, 2023 · New to full moon (to Sep 29): +1.2% · Full to new moon (to Oct 14): −0.2% The moon of Oct 14, 2023 · New to full moon (to Oct 29): +28.6% · Full to new moon (to Nov 13): +5.6% The moon of Nov 13, 2023 · New to full moon (to Nov 28): +3.7% · Full to new moon (to Dec 12): +9.7% The moon of Dec 12, 2023 · New to full moon (to Dec 27): +4.7% · Full to new moon (to Jan 11): +6.7% The moon of Jan 11, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jan 26): −9.7% · Full to new moon (to Feb 9): +12.7% 2024 The moon of Feb 9, 2024 · New to full moon (to Feb 24): +9.4% · Full to new moon (to Mar 10): +33.7% The moon of Mar 10, 2024 · New to full moon (to Mar 25): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Apr 8): +2.5% The moon of Apr 8, 2024 · New to full moon (to Apr 23): −7.3% · Full to new moon (to May 8): −7.9% The moon of May 8, 2024 · New to full moon (to May 23): +11.1% · Full to new moon (to Jun 6): +4.2% The moon of Jun 6, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jun 21): −9.4% · Full to new moon (to Jul 6): −9.2% The moon of Jul 6, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jul 21): +17.1% · Full to new moon (to Aug 5): −20.8% The moon of Aug 5, 2024 · New to full moon (to Aug 19): +10.0% · Full to new moon (to Sep 3): −3.3% The moon of Sep 3, 2024 · New to full moon (to Sep 18): +7.4% · Full to new moon (to Oct 3): −1.6% The moon of Oct 3, 2024 · New to full moon (to Oct 17): +11.0% · Full to new moon (to Nov 1): +3.1% The moon of Nov 1, 2024 · New to full moon (to Nov 16): +30.3% · Full to new moon (to Dec 1): +7.3% The moon of Dec 1, 2024 · New to full moon (to Dec 15): +7.5% · Full to new moon (to Dec 30): −11.2% The moon of Dec 30, 2024 · New to full moon (to Jan 14): +4.1% · Full to new moon (to Jan 29): +7.4% The moon of Jan 29, 2025 · New to full moon (to Feb 13): −6.9% · Full to new moon (to Feb 27): −12.3% The moon of Feb 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to Mar 14): −0.9% · Full to new moon (to Mar 29): −1.6% The moon of Mar 29, 2025 · New to full moon (to Apr 13): +1.3% · Full to new moon (to Apr 27): +11.9% The moon of Apr 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to May 12): +9.6% · Full to new moon (to May 27): +6.0% The moon of May 27, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jun 11): −0.3% · Full to new moon (to Jun 25): −1.2% The moon of Jun 25, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jul 10): +8.1% · Full to new moon (to Jul 25): +1.4% The moon of Jul 25, 2025 · New to full moon (to Aug 9): −1.0% · Full to new moon (to Aug 23): −0.9% The moon of Aug 23, 2025 · New to full moon (to Sep 7): −3.7% · Full to new moon (to Sep 22): +1.4% The moon of Sep 22, 2025 · New to full moon (to Oct 7): +7.7% · Full to new moon (to Oct 22): −11.3% The moon of Oct 22, 2025 · New to full moon (to Nov 5): −3.4% · Full to new moon (to Nov 20): −16.6% The moon of Nov 20, 2025 · New to full moon (to Dec 5): +3.1% · Full to new moon (to Dec 20): −1.1% The moon of Dec 20, 2025 · New to full moon (to Jan 3): +2.6% · Full to new moon (to Jan 18): +3.4% The moon of Jan 18, 2026 · New to full moon (to Feb 2): −15.9% · Full to new moon (to Feb 17): −14.3% 2026 The moon of Feb 17, 2026 · New to full moon (to Mar 3): +1.2% · Full to new moon (to Mar 18): +4.3% The moon of Mar 18, 2026 · New to full moon (to Apr 2): −6.1% · Full to new moon (to Apr 17): +15.2% The moon of Apr 17, 2026 · New to full moon (to May 1): +1.5% · Full to new moon (to May 16): −0.1% The moon of May 16, 2026 · New to full moon (to May 31): −5.7% · Full to new moon (to Jun 15): −10.0% The moon of Jun 15, 2026 · New to full moon (to Jun 30): −11.6% · Full to new moon (to Jul 14): +10.9% The moon of Jul 14, 2026 · New to full moon (to Jul 29): −1.6% · Full to new moon (to Aug 13): −0.8% The moon of Aug 13, 2026 · New to full moon (to Aug 28): +22.6% · Full to new moon (to Sep 11): −0.8% The moon of Sep 11, 2026 · New to full moon (to Sep 26): +9.3% · Full to new moon (to Oct 11): −0.8%
New moon to full moon: +2.9% on average (+1.7% in the middle month), up in 58% of 157 months; full moon to new moon: +1.9% (+0.1% in the middle), up in 50%. A luck test of 0.8 for the difference, not past the bar of 3.0 (the older half of the months +4.1 points a month, the newer −1.9).
The half around the full moon: +2.0% on average (+1.2% in the middle month), up in 54% of 157 months; the half around the new moon: +3.1% (+1.1% in the middle), up in 55%. A luck test of −0.7 for the difference, not past the bar of 3.0 (the older half of the months −1.7 points a month, the newer −0.8).
§ 02 · ON RECORD
Day by day
Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's days by the moon's age
Bitcoin's average day by the moon's age since 2014: day 0 +0.22%; day 1 +0.08%; day 2 +0.55%; day 3 −0.05%; day 4 +0.58%; day 5 −0.22%; day 6 +0.48%; day 7 −0.01%; day 8 +0.10%; day 9 +0.07%; day 10 +0.28%; day 11 −0.08%; day 12 +0.24%; day 13 +0.27%; day 14 +0.43%; day 15 −0.06%; day 16 −0.03%; day 17 −0.16%; day 18 +0.57%; day 19 −0.21%; day 20 +0.50%; day 21 +0.05%; day 22 +0.23%; day 23 +0.19%; day 24 +0.07%; day 25 +0.39%; day 26 +0.29%; day 27 −0.13%; day 28 +0.15%; day 29 +0.06% Bitcoin's average day by the moon's age (days since the new moon) Day 0 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.22% on average that day · up 53% of 159 days Day 1 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.08% on average that day · up 52% of 159 days Day 2 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin +0.55% on average that day · up 57% of 159 days Day 3 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin −0.05% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 4 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin +0.58% on average that day · up 60% of 158 days Day 5 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin −0.22% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 6 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin +0.48% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 7 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin −0.01% on average that day · up 47% of 158 days Day 8 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin +0.10% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 9 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.07% on average that day · up 51% of 158 days Day 10 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.28% on average that day · up 54% of 158 days Day 11 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.08% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 12 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.24% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 13 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin +0.27% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 14 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin +0.43% on average that day · up 56% of 158 days Day 15 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin −0.06% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 16 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin −0.03% on average that day · up 51% of 158 days Day 17 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.16% on average that day · up 53% of 158 days Day 18 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.57% on average that day · up 56% of 158 days Day 19 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.21% on average that day · up 42% of 158 days Day 20 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.50% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 21 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.05% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 22 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.23% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 23 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.19% on average that day · up 58% of 158 days Day 24 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.07% on average that day · up 45% of 158 days Day 25 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.39% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 26 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.29% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 27 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin −0.13% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 28 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.15% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 29 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.06% on average that day · up 48% of 84 days new moon first quarter full moon last quarter Bitcoin's average day by the moon's age since 2014: day 0 +0.22%; day 1 +0.08%; day 2 +0.55%; day 3 −0.05%; day 4 +0.58%; day 5 −0.22%; day 6 +0.48%; day 7 −0.01%; day 8 +0.10%; day 9 +0.07%; day 10 +0.28%; day 11 −0.08%; day 12 +0.24%; day 13 +0.27%; day 14 +0.43%; day 15 −0.06%; day 16 −0.03%; day 17 −0.16%; day 18 +0.57%; day 19 −0.21%; day 20 +0.50%; day 21 +0.05%; day 22 +0.23%; day 23 +0.19%; day 24 +0.07%; day 25 +0.39%; day 26 +0.29%; day 27 −0.13%; day 28 +0.15%; day 29 +0.06% Bitcoin's average day by the moon's age Day 0 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.22% on average that day · up 53% of 159 days Day 1 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.08% on average that day · up 52% of 159 days Day 2 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin +0.55% on average that day · up 57% of 159 days Day 3 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin −0.05% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 4 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin +0.58% on average that day · up 60% of 158 days Day 5 of the moon (waxing crescent) · Bitcoin −0.22% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 6 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin +0.48% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 7 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin −0.01% on average that day · up 47% of 158 days Day 8 of the moon (first quarter) · Bitcoin +0.10% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 9 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.07% on average that day · up 51% of 158 days Day 10 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.28% on average that day · up 54% of 158 days Day 11 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.08% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 12 of the moon (waxing gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.24% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 13 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin +0.27% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 14 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin +0.43% on average that day · up 56% of 158 days Day 15 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin −0.06% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 16 of the moon (full moon) · Bitcoin −0.03% on average that day · up 51% of 158 days Day 17 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.16% on average that day · up 53% of 158 days Day 18 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin +0.57% on average that day · up 56% of 158 days Day 19 of the moon (waning gibbous) · Bitcoin −0.21% on average that day · up 42% of 158 days Day 20 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.50% on average that day · up 55% of 158 days Day 21 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.05% on average that day · up 49% of 158 days Day 22 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.23% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 23 of the moon (last quarter) · Bitcoin +0.19% on average that day · up 58% of 158 days Day 24 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.07% on average that day · up 45% of 158 days Day 25 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.39% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 26 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin +0.29% on average that day · up 52% of 158 days Day 27 of the moon (waning crescent) · Bitcoin −0.13% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 28 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.15% on average that day · up 50% of 158 days Day 29 of the moon (new moon) · Bitcoin +0.06% on average that day · up 48% of 84 days new moon full moon
Each year's two halves
A day counts on the moon's age at the close it starts from: day 0 is the day after a new moon, about day 15 the full moon. Each day of the moon holds roughly one day in 30 of the record, so a single day's bar rests on about 159 days and swings with a few big ones.
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
Oct 15, 2026 · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
The moon's phases come from the mean lunar month, 29.53 days, counted from the new moon of January 6, 2000 (18:14 UTC); the true new and full moons fall within a day of it. Our closes are at midnight UTC, so each half runs from the first close at or after its start to the first at or after its end - about 15 days each. A month's two halves share no day, and neither do two months, so each month is its own piece of evidence: the test is the average of the months' differences (the first half's move less the second's, in log terms) over their spread, with the older and the newer half of the months apart.
Two cuts were set before any number was read: at the new and the full moon (the traders' saying), and at the quarter moons (the half around the full moon against the half around the new moon, the stock market's test). A cut needs a luck test of 3.0 or more with both halves of the months on its side. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions 1 dated
Revisions
Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Oct 15, 2026 Bitcoin from the new moon to the full moon +2.9% on average · from the full moon to the new +1.9%
§ 05 · More
More research
Oct 15, 2026