Study · re-run every night · updated
How many memecoins rug? Every Solana launch we recorded, tracked from birth
6,165 Solana token launches our collector recorded from birth, Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026: 87% were ruined within 24 hours, dead or down 80% or more, and 48% did not live an hour. Bought at the first price on record and held a day, the typical launch ended at −100%; 5% were up and 3% had doubled. Locked liquidity told little: 85% of the launches with none locked were ruined within the day, 84% of those fully locked. RugCheck's count of risks at birth sorted the ruined from the rest no better than a coin toss (AUC 0.46 over 5,401 launches). Past patterns, not financial advice.
Launches
6,165
Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026
Ruined in a day
87%
dead or down 80%+
Alive at 1 hour
52%
of 6,142
Up a day later
5%
bought at birth
§ 01 · Lifespans
How long they live
as of · 6,165 launches, Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026
Our collector watches new tokens on Solana from the moment their pool opens and reads each one again and again for a week: its price, its pool, its buyers. A launch is ruined when it is dead or down 80% or more from its first price on record, and dead when its pool is gone or can no longer be traded.
- alive 1 hour after birth: 52% of 6,142
- alive 6 hours after birth: 41% of 6,069
- alive 24 hours after birth: 39% of 5,813
- alive 72 hours after birth: 15% of 5,136
- alive 144 hours after birth: 7% of 4,107
- ruined within 24 hours: 87% of 6,012
How the dead died: the liquidity pulled 4,718, no cause on record 441, dumped (down 80% within six hours of a peak) 375, bled out slowly 11.
§ 02 · Peaks
How high they go
as of · 5,138 launches at least 72 hours old
The highest price we read after birth, against the first. We read each launch at intervals, not at every trade, so a spike between two readings is missed: these shares are floors.
- reached 2x: 24% (1,234); of them, ruined within the day anyway: 77%
- reached 3x: 16% (799); of them, ruined within the day anyway: 73%
- reached 5x: 9% (472); of them, ruined within the day anyway: 62%
- reached 10x: 2% (100); of them, ruined within the day anyway: 69%
Bought at the first price on record and sold a day later, the dead counted at −100%: the typical launch ended at −100% and the average at −65%; 5% were up and 3% had doubled. The first price on record is the one the fastest bots paid, not one a person could have had.
§ 03 · Red flags
The red flags, tested
as of · ruined within 24 hours, by what the launch looked like at birth
Each feature is read at birth, before anyone knew how the launch would end, and each of its buckets is set against every launch whose feature we read. A bucket holds when it sits 5 points or more from that baseline the same way in both halves of the record, split at Oct 10, 2026; it flips when the halves disagree.
| At birth | Bucket | Launches | Ruined in a day | Baseline | Older half | Newer half | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social links | none | 5,388 | 89% 88%–90% | 87% | +3 | +2 | small |
| one | 383 | 61% 57%–65% | 87% | -25 | -27 | holds | |
| two or more | 68 | 40% 31%–50% | 87% | -41 | -53 | holds | |
| Where it launched | FluxBeam | 179 | 29% 24%–35% | 87% | -43 | -86 | holds |
| Manifest | 19 | 16% 6%–34% | 87% | -77 | -63 | holds | |
| Meteora | 131 | 44% 37%–51% | 87% | -41 | -45 | holds | |
| Meteora DAMM v2 | 1,842 | 95% 94%–96% | 87% | +7 | +9 | holds | |
| Orca | 158 | 31% 25%–37% | 87% | -48 | -63 | holds | |
| pump.fun | 424 | 86% 83%–89% | 87% | +3 | -6 | small | |
| PumpSwap | 2,923 | 93% 92%–94% | 87% | +7 | +6 | holds | |
| Raydium | 69 | 57% 47%–66% | 87% | -36 | -16 | holds | |
| Raydium CLMM | 66 | 27% 19%–37% | 87% | -54 | -66 | holds | |
| Mint authority | kept | 58 | 12% 7%–21% | 86% | -75 | -73 | holds |
| revoked | 5,582 | 87% 86%–87% | 86% | +1 | +1 | small | |
| Freeze authority | kept | 69 | 20% 14%–29% | 86% | -69 | -60 | holds |
| revoked | 5,571 | 87% 86%–87% | 86% | +1 | +1 | small | |
| Liquidity locked | 0% | 2,382 | 85% 84%–87% | 86% | -1 | +0 | small |
| 1-99% | 1,595 | 90% 88%–91% | 86% | +2 | +5 | small | |
| 100% | 1,393 | 84% 82%–85% | 86% | +0 | -8 | small | |
| RugCheck's risks flagged | 0 | 819 | 77% 75%–80% | 86% | -8 | -11 | holds |
| 1 | 617 | 77% 74%–80% | 86% | -6 | -14 | holds | |
| 2-3 | 3,093 | 97% 96%–97% | 86% | +10 | +10 | holds | |
| 4+ | 872 | 64% 62%–67% | 86% | -20 | -25 | holds | |
| Bundled buys | 10-30% | 453 | 73% 70%–77% | 87% | -10 | -17 | holds |
| 30-60% | 248 | 80% 76%–84% | 87% | +1 | -18 | small | |
| 60%+ | 530 | 83% 80%–85% | 87% | -1 | -8 | small | |
| <10% | 4,601 | 89% 88%–90% | 87% | +1 | +3 | small | |
| Most buys in one block | 1 | 2,373 | 79% 78%–80% | 87% | -11 | -5 | holds |
| 2-3 | 2,097 | 95% 95%–96% | 87% | +9 | +8 | holds | |
| 4-8 | 1,184 | 88% 86%–90% | 87% | +5 | -4 | small | |
| 9+ | 178 | 79% 74%–84% | 87% | -8 | -7 | holds | |
| Early buyers | 16-40 | 1,106 | 91% 90%–93% | 87% | +5 | +4 | small |
| 40+ | 2,713 | 94% 93%–95% | 87% | +7 | +7 | holds | |
| 6-15 | 419 | 75% 71%–78% | 87% | -13 | -10 | holds | |
| <=5 | 1,594 | 74% 73%–76% | 87% | -10 | -15 | holds | |
| Buys per buyer | 1.2-2 | 1,781 | 89% 87%–90% | 87% | +2 | +1 | small |
| 2+ | 1,336 | 97% 96%–97% | 87% | +12 | +8 | holds | |
| about 1 | 2,715 | 81% 79%–82% | 87% | -7 | -5 | small | |
| The creator's funder | an established wallet | 126 | 45% 38%–53% | 58% | -10 | -16 | holds |
| a fresh wallet | 56 | 86% 76%–92% | 58% | +24 | +34 | holds | |
| The creator wallet's age | 1-24h | 34 | 24% 14%–37% | 36% | -23 | +2 | small |
| 1-7d | 41 | 20% 11%–31% | 36% | -1 | -24 | small | |
| 7d+ | 144 | 26% 20%–32% | 36% | -12 | -8 | holds | |
| <1h | 360 | 44% 39%–48% | 36% | +7 | +7 | holds | |
| Top 10 holders' share | 25-50% | 259 | 57% 52%–62% | 73% | -19 | -11 | holds |
| 50%+ | 2,276 | 76% 75%–78% | 73% | +4 | +3 | small | |
| <25% | 336 | 60% 56%–64% | 73% | -12 | -13 | holds | |
| Fresh wallets among the buyers | 15-40% | 28 | 36% 23%–51% | 73% | -43 | -31 | holds |
| 40%+ | 42 | 24% 15%–36% | 73% | -42 | -53 | holds | |
| <15% | 2,801 | 74% 72%–75% | 73% | +1 | +1 | small | |
| Our hand reader's verdict | fold | 2,436 | 75% 74%–76% | 73% | +3 | +2 | small |
| playable | 455 | 60% 56%–63% | 73% | -14 | -11 | holds |
The range after each share is its 90% interval; the halves are each bucket's points from its own half's baseline.
RugCheck's count of risks at birth, against ruin within the day: AUC 0.46 over 5,401 launches, where 0.5 sorts nothing and 1 sorts every ruined launch above every survivor.
Read a live token's red flags with the rug check; every launch is in the memecoin graveyard.
§ 04 · CreatorsON RECORD
The creators
as of · 657 launches with a known creator
Our hand reader names a launch's creator once the launch has lived its first hour, so these are first-hour survivors, each set beside the same wallet's earlier launches on our record.
- the creator's first launch on our record: ruined within 24 hours 48% of 288
- after 1 or 2 earlier launches: ruined within 24 hours 24% of 63
- after 3 or more earlier launches: ruined within 24 hours 27% of 280
- half or more of the earlier ones ruined: ruined within 24 hours 52% of 66
- under half of the earlier ones ruined: ruined within 24 hours 21% of 237
§ 05 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
The launches are the ones our collector saw on Solana from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026, on PumpSwap (3,009), Meteora DAMM v2 (1,862), pump.fun (447), FluxBeam (186) and smaller venues: not every token launched in those weeks. A few weeks is a short record, and the shares can move as it grows; this page is re-run every night.
Ruined means dead, or down 80% or more from the first price on record; the 24-hour share counts the launches old enough to say. Peaks are the highest of our readings. Every feature is read at birth, before the outcome, except the hand reader's (the creator, its funder, the holders), read only for launches that lived their first hour and compared only with those.
A bucket can move the odds through what tends to come with it rather than through itself: a launch away from the big launchpads differs in many ways at once. These are counts, not a model, and none of them is a promise about the next launch.
§ 06 · Revisions2 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 21, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 22, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- ruined within 24 hours 87% · red flags that hold: bundled buys 10-30%; buys per buyer 2+; the creator wallet's age 7d+; the creator wallet's age <1h; where it launched FluxBeam; where it launched Manifest; where it launched Meteora; where it launched Meteora DAMM v2; where it launched Orca; where it launched PumpSwap; where it launched Raydium; where it launched Raydium CLMM; freeze authority kept; fresh wallets among the buyers 15-40%; fresh wallets among the buyers 40%+; the creator's funder an established wallet; the creator's funder a fresh wallet; our hand reader's verdict playable; mint authority kept; social links one; social links two or more; rugcheck's risks flagged 0; rugcheck's risks flagged 1; rugcheck's risks flagged 2-3; rugcheck's risks flagged 4+; most buys in one block 1; most buys in one block 2-3; most buys in one block 9+; top 10 holders' share 25-50%; top 10 holders' share <25%; early buyers 40+; early buyers 6-15; early buyers <=5
- ruined within 24 hours 87% · red flags that hold: bundled buys 10-30%; buys per buyer 2+; buys per buyer about 1; the creator wallet's age 7d+; the creator wallet's age <1h; where it launched FluxBeam; where it launched Meteora; where it launched Meteora DAMM v2; where it launched Orca; where it launched PumpSwap; where it launched Raydium; where it launched Raydium CLMM; freeze authority kept; fresh wallets among the buyers 15-40%; fresh wallets among the buyers 40%+; the creator's funder an established wallet; the creator's funder a fresh wallet; our hand reader's verdict playable; mint authority kept; social links one; social links two or more; rugcheck's risks flagged 0; rugcheck's risks flagged 1; rugcheck's risks flagged 2-3; rugcheck's risks flagged 4+; most buys in one block 1; most buys in one block 2-3; most buys in one block 9+; top 10 holders' share 25-50%; top 10 holders' share <25%; early buyers 40+; early buyers 6-15; early buyers <=5
§ 07 · More
More research
as of