Study · re-run every night · updated
Do token unlocks dump the price?
182 token unlocks of 0.5% or more of the circulating supply on our calendar, each dated before its day, since 2023. Over the 30 days before the unlock the coin did −0.2% against the market (worse than it 62% of the time); over the 30 days after, +5.6%. None of the windows is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves agreeing). Past patterns, not financial advice.
Unlocks
182
since 2023
30 days before
−0.2%
against the market
30 days after
+5.6%
against the market
Coming big ones
12
2%+ of the supply
§ 01 · Before it
Before the unlock
as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 14, 2026
An unlock here is a release of 0.5% or more of a coin's circulating supply on our calendar, dated by its schedule before the day came (never one we only saw in the supply afterwards). The claim is that holders and hedgers sell into a release they can see coming. Each window runs from a close before the unlock day to the close before it, against the 300 most traded coins over the same closes (equal weight); each unlock week counts once.
every unlock, against the marketthe big onesunder each bar: its unlocks
| Unlocks | Window | Unlocks | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Worse than it | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| every one | the 30 days before | 160 | −0.2% | −4.5% | +4.0% | 62% | −0.1 |
| every one | the 14 days before | 164 | −1.4% | −2.9% | +0.1% | 62% | −0.6 |
| every one | the 7 days before | 165 | −0.7% | −1.0% | −0.3% | 56% | −0.3 |
| 2%+ of the supply | the 30 days before | 111 | +0.1% | −5.7% | +6.0% | 64% | 0.0 |
| 2%+ of the supply | the 14 days before | 116 | −1.1% | −3.5% | +1.3% | 61% | −0.4 |
| 2%+ of the supply | the 7 days before | 115 | −1.0% | −1.8% | −0.3% | 58% | −0.4 |
Over the 30 days before an unlock: −0.2% against the market, not past the bar of 3.0 with both halves of the weeks agreeing - on our calendar, the sell-off into an unlock is not there.
§ 02 · After it
After it
as of · from the close before the unlock day
| Unlocks | Window | Unlocks | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Worse than it | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| every one | the 7 days after | 163 | +2.5% | +0.5% | +4.5% | 61% | 1.0 |
| every one | the 30 days after | 158 | +5.6% | +9.4% | +1.8% | 58% | 0.9 |
| 2%+ of the supply | the 7 days after | 113 | +2.2% | +0.7% | +3.8% | 59% | 0.9 |
| 2%+ of the supply | the 30 days after | 112 | +3.3% | −0.4% | +6.8% | 58% | 0.7 |
Over the 30 days after: +5.6% against the market, not past the bar. The scoreboard measures each kind of event's after the same way, every night.
§ 03 · Coming
The coming big unlocks
as of · 2% or more of the circulating supply
- LMTS Oct 15, 2026: 2.2% of the circulating supply
- ELSA Oct 19, 2026: 2.9% of the circulating supply
- LMTS Oct 22, 2026: 63.3% of the circulating supply
- ZETA Nov 1, 2026: 18.7% of the circulating supply
- VELVET Nov 9, 2026: 4.5% of the circulating supply
- LMTS Nov 15, 2026: 2.2% of the circulating supply
- ELSA Nov 19, 2026: 7.7% of the circulating supply
- LMTS Nov 22, 2026: 5.3% of the circulating supply
- TMX Nov 25, 2026: 2.7% of the circulating supply
- ZETA Dec 1, 2026: 15.8% of the circulating supply
- WET Dec 9, 2026: 83.7% of the circulating supply
- VELVET Dec 10, 2026: 4.5% of the circulating supply
Every unlock, big or small, is on the calendar with its odds.
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each window's move is counted against the market over the same closes, and the unlocks of one week are averaged first, so a week with many unlocks is one market, not many. With 10 tests (five windows, every unlock and the big ones), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the weeks on its side.
Our record holds today's coins and the unlocks their schedules list: a coin that later vanished may be missing. Moves are before trading costs and funding; a short into an unlock pays funding on most perpetuals.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- the 30 days before −0.2% · the 30 days after +5.6% against the market
§ 06 · More
More research
as of