Study · re-run every night · updated
What if you missed Bitcoin's best days? Every day since 2014, and whether the best come right after the worst
$1,000 in Bitcoin on Jan 1, 2014, held every day to Oct 14: $108,202 (+44% a year). Without its 10 best days of 4,669: $18,377 (+26% a year). Without its 10 worst days instead: $1,061,751; without both the 10 best and the 10 worst: $180,324. 7 of its 20 best days came within 7 days of one of its 20 worst, against 6% with the worst days' dates slid elsewhere: past the bar - the best days crowd around the worst. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Held
$108,202
$1,000 since 2014
10 best missed
$18,377
+26% a year
10 worst missed
$1,061,751
+72% a year
Best near worst
7 of 20
within 7 days
§ 01 · Missed days
What if you missed the best days?
as of · Bitcoin's daily closes, Jan 1, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026
"Time in the market beats timing the market": miss the few best days and most of the gain goes with them. Here is $1,000 in Bitcoin from Jan 1, 2014, held through all 4,669 days to Oct 14, 2026, against the same money out of the market - in cash, earning nothing - on its biggest days.
| $1,000 in Bitcoin | Became | A year |
|---|---|---|
| Held every day | $108,202 | +44.3% |
| Without the 5 best days | $39,521 | +33.3% |
| Without the 5 worst days | $445,554 | +61.1% |
| Without the 5 best and the 5 worst | $162,739 | +48.9% |
| Without the 10 best days | $18,377 | +25.6% |
| Without the 10 worst days | $1,061,751 | +72.5% |
| Without the 10 best and the 10 worst | $180,324 | +50.1% |
| Without the 20 best days | $4,724 | +12.9% |
| Without the 20 worst days | $4,707,529 | +93.8% |
| Without the 20 best and the 20 worst | $205,531 | +51.7% |
| Without the 50 best days | $194.58 | −12.0% |
| Without the 50 worst days | $152,717,385 | +154.4% |
| Without the 50 best and the 50 worst | $274,635 | +55.2% |
A year: the yearly rate that compounds to the same end. Bitcoin closed higher on 52% of its days.
§ 02 · Best and worstON RECORD
The best and worst days
as of · the biggest moves from one close to the next
The 10 best
- +26.9% Jul 20, 2017
- +23.1% Jan 15, 2015
- +22.5% Dec 7, 2017
- +19.7% Mar 3, 2014
- +19.5% Feb 8, 2021
- +17.2% Apr 2, 2019
- +16.8% Oct 25, 2019
- +16.5% Apr 11, 2014
- +16.2% Mar 13, 2020
- +16.1% Jul 17, 2017
The 10 worst
- −39.5% Mar 12, 2020
- −24.5% Jan 14, 2015
- −19.5% Jan 16, 2018
- −19.2% Sep 14, 2017
- −18.3% Mar 27, 2014
- −17.8% Apr 10, 2014
- −16.2% Jan 15, 2016
- −15.4% Jun 13, 2022
- −15.2% Feb 5, 2018
- −15.1% Jan 13, 2015
The catch in the saying: the best days do not come on quiet stretches. Of Bitcoin's 20 best days, 7 came within 7 days, before or after, of one of its 20 worst. Slide the worst days' dates anywhere else in the record and 6% of the best days land that close on average. That is past the bar of 3, with the older and the newer half of the best days agreeing: the best days crowd around the worst, so stepping out to dodge a crash tends to miss the rebound too.
§ 03 · Year by year
Year by year
as of · each calendar year, its best and worst day
| Year | Bitcoin | Best day | Worst day | Without its 5 best days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | −7% | +12.2% Feb 6, 2026 | −14.0% Feb 5, 2026 | −36% |
| 2025 | −6% | +9.5% Mar 2, 2025 | −8.5% Mar 3, 2025 | −34% |
| 2024 | +121% | +11.9% Aug 8, 2024 | −8.4% Mar 19, 2024 | +37% |
| 2023 | +156% | +10.3% Oct 23, 2023 | −7.3% Aug 17, 2023 | +64% |
| 2022 | −64% | +14.5% Feb 28, 2022 | −15.4% Jun 13, 2022 | −79% |
| 2021 | +60% | +19.5% Feb 8, 2021 | −14.4% May 19, 2021 | −12% |
| 2020 | +302% | +16.2% Mar 13, 2020 | −39.5% Mar 12, 2020 | +116% |
| 2019 | +94% | +17.2% Apr 2, 2019 | −13.5% Jun 27, 2019 | +2% |
| 2018 | −73% | +13.9% Apr 12, 2018 | −19.5% Jan 16, 2018 | −85% |
| 2017 | +1319% | +26.9% Jul 20, 2017 | −19.2% Sep 14, 2017 | +485% |
| 2016 | +124% | +10.5% Jan 20, 2016 | −16.2% Jan 15, 2016 | +41% |
| 2015 | +34% | +23.1% Jan 15, 2015 | −24.5% Jan 14, 2015 | −26% |
| 2014 | −57% | +19.7% Mar 3, 2014 | −18.3% Mar 27, 2014 | −79% |
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
A day's move is Bitcoin's close against the close the day before, both on file (Bitstamp's daily closes before our own, from Jan 1, 2014, then ours). Missing a day means holding cash through it and earning nothing, then holding again. The numbers were fixed before any was read: the 5, 10, 20 and 50 best days, the worst, the 20 best against the 20 worst within 7 days.
The luck test slides the 20 worst days' dates together by every whole number of days - 4,640 slides of more than two weeks, wrapping round the record's ends - and counts the best days that land within 7 days of one each time: none of the slides put as many best days near a worst one as the real dates do. Wild weeks bring several best days and several worst ones, and the slides keep each set's bunching, so a wild week counts once, not as separate draws. A result needs a luck test of 3 or more and both halves of the best days, the older and the newer, on its side. One change after the first read of our data, on Oct 14, 2026: the test had taken the best days as separate draws (a binomial test). Prices only, before trading costs.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- Bitcoin a year: held +44% · without its 10 best days +26% · the best days crowd around the worst, past the bar
§ 06 · More
More research
as of