Does the Coinbase premium lead Bitcoin? US demand against the world's, tested
Over the 7 days to Oct 14, Bitcoin closed 0.002% lower on Coinbase, in dollars, than on Binance, in Tether at Coinbase's own Tether price, on average: the Coinbase premium is −0.002%, over its usual (a rank of 64 of 100 against the year before). On the 164 days since 2021 it was the highest of its year, Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +6.0% over the next 30 days on average; after the year's deepest discounts, −1.8%; after every day, +1.7%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the premium moves in long stretches, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.
as of · Coinbase's and Binance's daily closes, May 4, 2021 to Oct 14, 2026
Coinbase is where American buyers - and the US spot Bitcoin ETFs' custodian - trade Bitcoin in dollars; Binance is the world's biggest market, in Tether. When Americans buy harder than the rest of the world, Bitcoin trades a little higher on Coinbase: the "Coinbase premium". Traders watch it as a sign of US demand, and its dips under zero as US selling. Here it is Bitcoin's daily close on Coinbase over Binance's turned into dollars at Coinbase's own Tether price, less 1 - both closes at midnight UTC - taken as a 7-day mean, ranked against its year: 0 the deepest discount of the year before, 100 the highest premium. Every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, held 7, 30 or 90 days.
Oct 14, 2026: −0.002% over the last 7 days (−0.010% that day), over its usual - a rank of 64 of 100. The highest 7-day mean on record: +0.048% on Jun 30, 2022; the deepest: −0.054% on May 16, 2022.
the premium's 7-day mean, every week
§ 02 · After it
What came after it
as of · Bitcoin, from the day's close
Bitcoin's average next 30 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days
The premium
Days
Stretches
Next 7 days
Next 30 days
Next 90 days
The year's deepest discount lower than 90% of its year
240
32
−0.8%
−1.8%
+1.1%
Under its usual ranked 11 to 50 of 100 in its year
688
60
−0.4%
+1.0%
+3.9%
Over its usual ranked 51 to 89 of 100 in its year
702
55
+1.0%
+2.7%
+9.3%
The year's highest premium higher than 90% of its year
167
30
+2.4%
+6.0%
+11.2%
every day
1,797
—
+0.3%
+1.7%
+6.1%
Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):
The premium
Next 7 days
Next 30 days
Next 90 days
The year's deepest discount
−1.3% t −1.3
−4.1% t −1.3
−5.8% t −0.6
Under its usual
−1.2% t −1.9
−1.2% t −0.6
−3.8% t −1.0
Over its usual
+1.0% t 1.6
+1.5% t 0.8
+5.0% t 1.1
The year's highest premium
+2.3% t 2.0
+4.7% t 1.5
+5.6% t 0.8
The year's highest premium (higher than 90% of its year) on 164 days in 29 separate stretches, the last on Sep 29, 2026. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 71% of the time (+6.2% in the middle case, +6.0% on average): +4.7% against the other days, +3.8% in the older half of the days and +6.3% in the newer. A luck test of 1.5, not past the bar of 3.0: 20 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.
The year's deepest discount (lower than 90% of its year) on 240 days in 32 separate stretches, the last on Mar 31, 2026. Bitcoin bought on one of those days rose over the next 30 days 45% of the time (−1.8% in the middle case, −1.8% on average): −4.1% against the other days, −5.4% in the older half of the days and −4.0% in the newer. A luck test of −1.3, not past the bar of 3.0: 19 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Both daily candles close at midnight UTC, so the two closes are the same moment and each day's premium is known by our close that day, the close the hold starts from. A single close is one tick on each venue and wanders by a few hundredths of a percent, so the reading is the mean of the last 7 days, and it is ranked against the year before it (half a year at least) because the premium's size changed as the market did - the spot ETFs since January 2024 among them. Tether on Binance is turned into dollars at Coinbase's own USDT-USD close, from May 2021. The bands were set before any number was read: the lowest tenth of the year, under the middle, over it, the highest tenth. Neighbouring days share most of their holds, so a band counts as the holds that share no day; with 12 tests a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.
Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Bitcoin over the next 30 days against the other days: after the year's highest premiums +5% · after the deepest discounts −4%