PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Updated

Study · re-run every night · updated

The two September bot rules, re-tested on 7 years of prices

Volume spike: 2,496 trades from Oct 26, 2019 to Oct 1, 2026, +1.31% a trade on average, −1.32% for the middle trade, 45% won, luck test 2.9. On paper since Sep 29: 15 trades closed (+1.69% on average), 7 open. Alt-bleed pair: 1,285 trades from Feb 25, 2020 to Oct 4, 2026, +0.57% a trade on average, +2.44% for the middle trade, 60% won, luck test 1.2. On paper since Sep 29: 0 trades closed, 4 open. Before fees. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Volume spike

+1.31%

a trade, 2,496 trades; middle −1.32%

Alt-bleed pair

+0.57%

a trade, 1,285 trades; middle +2.44%

History

7 years

of our daily closes

First written · 1 revision

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§ 01 · Volume spike

Volume spike, top-40 perpetuals, Bitcoin above its 50-day average

as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 7, 2026

Each trade is held 3 days, with at most 8 open at once and 2 sides a trade (each buy and each sell). Each decision reads only its own close and the closes before it; the paper record starts Sep 29, 2026.

volume spike, top-40 perpetuals, Bitcoin above its 50-day average: 2019 1 trades, average +1.92%, middle +1.92%; 2020 255 trades, average +2.41%, middle +0.87%; 2021 418 trades, average +3.97%, middle +0.52%; 2022 176 trades, average −1.32%, middle −2.13%; 2023 512 trades, average +1.22%, middle −1.05%; 2024 437 trades, average +0.83%, middle −1.31%; 2025 328 trades, average −1.37%, middle −3.76%; 2026 369 trades, average +1.86%, middle −4.53%Volume spike · each year's trades, before fees2019 · 1 trade · average +1.92% a trade · middle trade +1.92% · 100% won · held 3 days, before fees201912020 · 255 trades · average +2.41% a trade · middle trade +0.87% · 55% won · held 3 days, before fees20202552021 · 418 trades · average +3.97% a trade · middle trade +0.52% · 53% won · held 3 days, before fees20214182022 · 176 trades · average −1.32% a trade · middle trade −2.13% · 41% won · held 3 days, before fees20221762023 · 512 trades · average +1.22% a trade · middle trade −1.05% · 45% won · held 3 days, before fees20235122024 · 437 trades · average +0.83% a trade · middle trade −1.31% · 44% won · held 3 days, before fees20244372025 · 328 trades · average −1.37% a trade · middle trade −3.76% · 40% won · held 3 days, before fees20253282026 · 369 trades · average +1.86% a trade · middle trade −4.53% · 36% won · held 3 days, before fees2026369volume spike, top-40 perpetuals, Bitcoin above its 50-day average: 2019 1 trades, average +1.92%, middle +1.92%; 2020 255 trades, average +2.41%, middle +0.87%; 2021 418 trades, average +3.97%, middle +0.52%; 2022 176 trades, average −1.32%, middle −2.13%; 2023 512 trades, average +1.22%, middle −1.05%; 2024 437 trades, average +0.83%, middle −1.31%; 2025 328 trades, average −1.37%, middle −3.76%; 2026 369 trades, average +1.86%, middle −4.53%Volume spike · each year's trades2019 · 1 trade · average +1.92% a trade · middle trade +1.92% · 100% won · held 3 days, before fees201912020 · 255 trades · average +2.41% a trade · middle trade +0.87% · 55% won · held 3 days, before fees20202552021 · 418 trades · average +3.97% a trade · middle trade +0.52% · 53% won · held 3 days, before fees20214182022 · 176 trades · average −1.32% a trade · middle trade −2.13% · 41% won · held 3 days, before fees20221762023 · 512 trades · average +1.22% a trade · middle trade −1.05% · 45% won · held 3 days, before fees20235122024 · 437 trades · average +0.83% a trade · middle trade −1.31% · 44% won · held 3 days, before fees20244372025 · 328 trades · average −1.37% a trade · middle trade −3.76% · 40% won · held 3 days, before fees20253282026 · 369 trades · average +1.86% a trade · middle trade −4.53% · 36% won · held 3 days, before fees2026369

the average trade each year, up or downthe middle tradeunder each year: its trades

RecordTradesFrom – toAverageTrimmedMiddleWonLuck testFee a side
Before Sep 29, 20262,496Oct 26, 2019 – Oct 1, 2026 +1.31%−1.05%−1.32% 45%2.90.65%
On paper since Sep 29, 202615
7 open		Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 +1.69%−0.22%−2.72% 33%0.50.84%
Without the Bitcoin gate3,378Oct 25, 2019 – Oct 1, 2026 +0.51%−1.66%−2.04% 43%1.30.25%

§ 02 · Alt-bleed pair

Alt-bleed pair: short the weakest 20% of the top-100 perpetuals in a downtrend, long Bitcoin

as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 7, 2026

Each trade is held 10 days, with at most 8 open at once and 4 sides a trade (each buy and each sell). Each decision reads only its own close and the closes before it; the paper record starts Sep 29, 2026.

alt-bleed pair: short the weakest 20% of the top-100 perpetuals in a downtrend, long Bitcoin: 2020 67 trades, average +6.09%, middle +2.16%; 2021 171 trades, average −3.49%, middle +0.89%; 2022 259 trades, average +0.78%, middle +2.26%; 2023 196 trades, average +2.28%, middle +2.13%; 2024 209 trades, average +0.75%, middle +2.44%; 2025 208 trades, average +0.71%, middle +3.31%; 2026 175 trades, average −0.16%, middle +2.52%Alt-bleed pair · each year's trades, before fees2020 · 67 trades · average +6.09% a trade · middle trade +2.16% · 64% won · held 10 days, before fees2020672021 · 171 trades · average −3.49% a trade · middle trade +0.89% · 52% won · held 10 days, before fees20211712022 · 259 trades · average +0.78% a trade · middle trade +2.26% · 58% won · held 10 days, before fees20222592023 · 196 trades · average +2.28% a trade · middle trade +2.13% · 62% won · held 10 days, before fees20231962024 · 209 trades · average +0.75% a trade · middle trade +2.44% · 64% won · held 10 days, before fees20242092025 · 208 trades · average +0.71% a trade · middle trade +3.31% · 62% won · held 10 days, before fees20252082026 · 175 trades · average −0.16% a trade · middle trade +2.52% · 63% won · held 10 days, before fees2026175alt-bleed pair: short the weakest 20% of the top-100 perpetuals in a downtrend, long Bitcoin: 2020 67 trades, average +6.09%, middle +2.16%; 2021 171 trades, average −3.49%, middle +0.89%; 2022 259 trades, average +0.78%, middle +2.26%; 2023 196 trades, average +2.28%, middle +2.13%; 2024 209 trades, average +0.75%, middle +2.44%; 2025 208 trades, average +0.71%, middle +3.31%; 2026 175 trades, average −0.16%, middle +2.52%Alt-bleed pair · each year's trades2020 · 67 trades · average +6.09% a trade · middle trade +2.16% · 64% won · held 10 days, before fees2020672021 · 171 trades · average −3.49% a trade · middle trade +0.89% · 52% won · held 10 days, before fees20211712022 · 259 trades · average +0.78% a trade · middle trade +2.26% · 58% won · held 10 days, before fees20222592023 · 196 trades · average +2.28% a trade · middle trade +2.13% · 62% won · held 10 days, before fees20231962024 · 209 trades · average +0.75% a trade · middle trade +2.44% · 64% won · held 10 days, before fees20242092025 · 208 trades · average +0.71% a trade · middle trade +3.31% · 62% won · held 10 days, before fees20252082026 · 175 trades · average −0.16% a trade · middle trade +2.52% · 63% won · held 10 days, before fees2026175

the average trade each year, up or downthe middle tradeunder each year: its trades

RecordTradesFrom – toAverageTrimmedMiddleWonLuck testFee a side
Before Sep 29, 20261,285Feb 25, 2020 – Oct 4, 2026 +0.57%+2.12%+2.44% 60%1.20.14%
On paper since Sep 29, 20260
4 open		— ——— ———

The pair paid +0.38% a trade in Binance funding over 213 trades with rates on record: shown beside the record, not taken off it.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

These are the two rules our own trading bots ran in September, recomputed every night from our daily closes, bar for bar as the bots compute them. A coin counts as a perpetual on a day our exchange record lists its perpetual from before that day; perpetuals delisted before our record began are missing from the history.

Every result is before fees: "fee a side" is the fee that would eat the whole average trade. The trimmed average leaves out the best and worst tenth of trades; the middle trade shows what a typical trade did.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing, which flatters the older years.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 6, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 6, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

  1. Alt-bleed pair: 1,285 trades, +0.57% a trade; on paper 0 closed, 4 open; Volume spike: 2,496 trades, +1.31% a trade; on paper 15 closed, 7 open

§ 05 · More

More research

as of