Study · re-run every night · updated
What happens to a coin after its Binance listing?
523 coins whose first close on our record is their first day on Binance, listed since June 2018. Six months after the listing day's close, the typical listing stood −47.7% from it; against the 300 most traded coins over the same days it did −29.6% on average, and 24% of them beat that market. 73% were under their listing close. The day after the listing, the typical listing moved −4.3% and closed higher 35% of the time. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Listings
523
since 2018
After six months
−47.7%
the typical listing
Against the market
−29.6%
six months, on average
Under the listing close
73%
six months later
§ 01 · After the listing
After the listing
as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 13, 2026
From the listing day's close: each listing's own move over the next week, month, three and six months, and the same against the 300 most traded coins over the same days (equal weight). Each listing month counts once, so a month of many listings is one market, not many.
against the market, on averagethe typical listing's own moveunder each hold: its listings
| After | Listings | Typical listing | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Beat the market | Under its listing close | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a week | 514 | −12.3% | −3.3% | −3.4% | −3.1% | 30% | 68% | −1.2 |
| a month | 514 | −23.1% | −5.2% | −2.5% | −7.9% | 27% | 69% | −0.8 |
| three months | 514 | −36.1% | −23.2% | −31.9% | −14.7% | 24% | 71% | −2.5 |
| six months | 509 | −47.7% | −29.6% | −39.5% | −20.0% | 24% | 73% | −3.0 |
The day after the listing: the typical listing moved −4.3% (−0.5% on average) and closed higher on 35% of 523 listings.
§ 02 · Year by year
Year by year, spot or futures first
as of · six months after the listing
Against the market six months after the listing, by the year the coin was listed:
| Listed in | Listings | Against the market |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | −10.1% |
| 2019 | 50 | −19.7% |
| 2020 | 78 | −90.7% |
| 2021 | 88 | −48.7% |
| 2022 | 33 | +0.4% |
| 2023 | 44 | −25.5% |
| 2024 | 79 | −3.6% |
| 2025 | 121 | −15.8% |
| 2026 | 11 | −30.1% |
Listed on Binance spot first: −39.3% against the market over 395 listings; the coins whose Binance perpetual came first: −4.3% over 114 listings.
§ 03 · One day at a time
One day at a time
as of · calendar time
The same question one day at a time: each day, every coin in its first days since its listing, against the market that day. Each day counts once, so a bull year's long run weighs no more than its days.
- −0.061% a day on days 1 to 180 after the listing (2,980 days, about 31 coins a day; luck test −1.9)
- −0.035% a day on days 8 to 180 after the listing (2,971 days, about 30 coins a day; luck test −1.2)
- −0.360% a day on days 1 to 30 after the listing (1,530 days, about 8 coins a day; luck test −2.9)
- −0.064% a day on days 31 to 90 after the listing (2,357 days, about 13 coins a day; luck test −1.3)
- +0.011% a day on days 91 to 180 after the listing (2,683 days, about 17 coins a day; luck test 0.3)
- −0.093% a day on days 1 to 180 after the listing, spot listings only (2,903 days, about 25 coins a day; luck test −2.8)
Counted this way, the clearest stretch is days 1 to 30 after the listing: −0.360% a day against the market (luck test −2.9). No stretch passes the bar of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing: one day at a time, none of these gaps is clear of luck.
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
A listing here is a coin whose oldest close on our record is its first daily close on Binance, from October 2017 on: we walked every Binance-priced coin back to its first day there. Each move starts at the listing day's close, the first price anyone could be sure of, and a coin that stopped trading counts at its last close.
Our record holds today's coins and the ones with events on our calendar, not every coin Binance ever listed: a listing that later vanished may be missing, which would make a fall look smaller, never bigger.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 14, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 14, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- 523 listings · −29.6% against the market over 180 days · 73% under their listing close
§ 06 · More
More research
as of