Study · re-run every night · updated
What happens after a coin's 20% day?
9,314 days when one of the 300 most traded coins closed 20% or more up or down on its day, since 2018; 205 of them with news on its calendar that day or the day before (a listing or delisting, an unlock, a hack, a vote). After a 20% pump with no news, the coin did −1.1% against the market the next day and −1.5% over the week. After a 20% crash with no news, −0.8% the next day and −5.4% over the week. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Big days
9,314
since 2018
Pump, no news
−1.1%
the next day
Crash, no news
−5.4%
the next week
With news
2%
of the big days
§ 01 · After a pump
After a 20% pump
as of · our daily closes, Aug 17, 2017 to Oct 14, 2026
A big day here is a close 20% or more above or below the one before it, on a coin that was among the 300 most traded at the close before. From the big day's close: the coin's move over the next day and the next week, against those 300 coins over the same days (equal weight). Each date counts once, so a day when many coins jumped together is one market, not many.
no news, against the marketwith newsunder each bar: its big days
| After | News on its calendar | Big days | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the next day | none | 6,412 | −1.1% | −1.6% | −0.7% | −3.7 |
| the next day | some | 129 | +0.8% | +1.5% | −0.0% | 0.5 |
| the next week | none | 6,385 | −1.5% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −1.8 |
| the next week | some | 129 | +11.5% | +1.4% | +21.4% | 0.9 |
Past the bar of 3 with both halves of the dates agreeing: a pump with no news behind it gave back 1.1% against the market the next day.
§ 02 · After a crash
After a 20% crash
as of · our daily closes, the same days
| After | News on its calendar | Big days | Against the market | Older half | Newer half | Luck test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the next day | none | 2,666 | −0.8% | −0.8% | −0.8% | −1.3 |
| the next day | some | 76 | −4.5% | −0.6% | −8.4% | −2.3 |
| the next week | none | 2,635 | −5.4% | −5.1% | −5.8% | −4.0 |
| the next week | some | 68 | −10.5% | −10.4% | −10.5% | −2.8 |
Past the bar of 3 with both halves of the dates agreeing: a crash with no news behind it kept falling, −5.4% against the market over the next week. One reading: a fall with no reason on the calendar may have one nobody has announced yet.
§ 03 · The news
The news behind the big days
as of · the calendar, that day or the day before
6,561 pumps (129 with news) and 2,753 crashs (76 with news). News here is a fact dated by its own source on that coin, that day or the day before: a listing or delisting, a perpetual listed or delisted, an unlock, a hack, a network upgrade, a vote, a burn, a halving, an airdrop. Never a reading of the price, the volume or the crowd, which a big day makes by itself.
- 107 perpetuals listed
- 59 spot listings
- 32 spot delistings
- 22 governance votes
- 13 perpetuals delisted
- 7 hacks
- 4 unlocks
- 1 network upgrades
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each move starts at the big day's close, the first price anyone could act on, and is counted against the market over the same days. With 12 tests (pumps and crashes, the next day and the week, with news, without, and the gap between them), a result needs a luck test of 3 or more and both halves of the dates on its side.
Our record holds today's coins and the ones with events on our calendar: a coin that later vanished may be missing, which would make a crash's after look better, never worse.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
- a pump with no news −1.1% the next day · a crash with no news −5.4% the next week · past the bar: a crash's next week, a pump's next day
§ 06 · More
More research
as of