Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Is Bitcoin cheap under its 2-year moving average and dear at five times it? The 2-year MA multiplier, tested

Bitcoin closed at $81,682 on Oct 14, 0.92 times the average of its last 730 closes ($89,097): under its 2-year average. The upper line, five times that average, stands at $445,486. Since 2015 it closed under the average on 1,063 days in 7 stretches, the last on Oct 14, 2026; at five times it or more on 67 days, the last on Jan 15, 2018. Bitcoin bought at a close under the average did +136.1% over the next year on average, against +152.9% after the other days; at five times it or more, −62.3%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the stretches at either end are few, and a year's hold shares most of its days with the next. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

0.92×

under its 2-year average

2-year average

$89,097

Bitcoin closed $81,682

Under it

+136.1%

Bitcoin, the next year

Every day

+149.1%

Bitcoin, the next year

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's daily closes, Dec 31, 2015 to Oct 14, 2026

The 2-year MA multiplier is Philip Swift's "Bitcoin investor tool": the average of Bitcoin's last 730 daily closes, and five times it. Under the average, the saying goes, Bitcoin is cheap - the bargain of the cycle; at five times it, the cycle tops. Here every daily close is set against the average of the 730 closes up to it - under it, 1 to 2 times it, 2 to 3.5, 3.5 to 5, five times it or more - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that close, held 90 days, 180 days or a year, against all the other days.

Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin closed at $81,682, 0.92 times its 2-year average of $89,097: under its 2-year average; the upper line stands at $445,486. Since Dec 31, 2015 it closed under the average on 1,063 days in 7 stretches, the last on Oct 14, 2026, and at five times it or more on 67 days, the last on Jan 15, 2018; its lowest reading, 0.41, came on Nov 21, 2022 and its highest, 9.75, on Dec 16, 2017.

Bitcoin (a log scale)the 2-year average and five times itcloses under the averagecloses at five times it or more

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next yearevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Against the average	Days	Stretches	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
Under it under 1.00×	973	7	+22.2%	+56.8%	+136.1%
Just over it 1.00 to 1.99×	1,892	20	+15.0%	+40.0%	+167.4%
Well over it 2.00 to 3.49×	672	15	+34.0%	+80.4%	+180.2%
Near five times it 3.50 to 4.99×	247	9	+59.3%	+94.7%	+32.5%
Past five times it 5.00 or more×	67	2	−22.0%	−35.7%	−62.3%
every day	3,851	—	+22.3%	+53.4%	+149.1%

Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Against the average	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
under 1.00×	−0.1% t −0.0	+4.5% t 0.1	−16.9% t −0.1
1.00 to 1.99×	−14.5% t −1.0	−27.0% t −0.8	+36.5% t 0.4
2.00 to 3.49×	+14.2% t 0.7	+32.9% t 0.8	+38.3% t 0.3
3.50 to 4.99×	+39.5% t 0.8	+44.2% t 0.4	too few
5.00 or more×	too few	too few	too few

Under the 2-year average (under 1.00 times the average) came on 804 days in 6 separate stretches, the last on Oct 14, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 365 days 96% of the time (+118.8% in the middle case, +136.1% on average): −16.9% against the other days, −57.3% in the older half of the days and +86.8% in the newer. A luck test of −0.1, not past the bar of 3.0: 4 holds that share no day, and a few long stretches decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Each day's average takes the 730 daily closes up to that day, none missing, nothing after, so every close is read against a line it could have known. Neighbouring days share most of their 90, 180 or 365 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 11 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: the average, twice it, 3.5 times it and the tool's own five times. The average needs two years of closes, so with Bitstamp's closes from Jan 1, 2014 the first reading comes Dec 31, 2015; the 2011 and 2013 tops, where the tool's upper line was touched before, are not in it. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next year against the other days: after closes under its 2-year average −17% · five times it or more 0%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026