Does the Puell Multiple call Bitcoin's bottoms and tops? Under 0.5 and 4, tested
Bitcoin closed at $81,682 on Oct 14. At that price a day's new coins (about 456 at this era's pace) are worth $37.22M, 1.04 times their average over the last 365 days ($35.78M): a Puell Multiple of 1.04, 1 to 2 times the year's average. Since 2014 it read under 0.5 in 11 stretches, the last from Nov 21, 2022; at 4 or more in 2 stretches, the last from Jan 5, 2018. Bitcoin bought at a close with the multiple under 0.5 did +85.6% over the next year on average, against +146.9% after the other days; at 4 or more, −77.3%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the stretches at either end are few, and a year's hold shares most of its days with the next. Past patterns, not financial advice.
as of · Bitcoin's daily closes and its issuance schedule, Dec 31, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026
The Puell Multiple is David Puell's 2019 measure of what miners take in: the dollar value of the day's new coins over its average of the last 365 days. Under 0.5 - new coins worth less than half their year's average - the saying puts the cycle's bottom; at 4 or more, its top. Here a day's new coins come from Bitcoin's issuance schedule (each era's coins a block times its average blocks a day) at that day's close, set against their average over the 365 days up to it - under 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 or more - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that close, held 90 days, 180 days or a year, against all the other days.
Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin closed at $81,682; a day's new coins, about 456 at this era's pace, were worth $37.22M against their 365-day average of $35.78M: a Puell Multiple of 1.04, 1 to 2 times the year's average. Since Dec 31, 2014 it read under 0.5 on 96 days in 11 stretches, the last from Nov 21, 2022, and 4 or more on 22 days, the last from Jan 5, 2018; its lowest reading, 0.34, came on Jan 14, 2015 and its highest, 5.67, on Dec 16, 2017.
Each halving cuts the new coins in half, and the multiple with them, until the halved days fill the year's average: 1.70 the day before the 2016 halving and 0.78 on it; 1.00 the day before the 2020 halving and 0.48 on it; 1.66 the day before the 2024 halving and 0.84 on it. 1 stretch under 0.5 opened on a halving day, not on a fall in price.
the Puell Multiple (a log scale)0.5 and 4under 0.54 or more
§ 02 · After it
What came after it
as of · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close
Bitcoin's average next yearevery day's averageunder each bar: its days
Puell Multiple
Days
Stretches
Next 90 days
Next 180 days
Next year
Under 0.5
96
11
+4.3%
+56.3%
+85.6%
0.5 to 1
1,821
21
+19.1%
+58.5%
+203.3%
1 to 2
1,888
16
+20.1%
+39.3%
+125.5%
2 to 4
389
8
+50.6%
+91.6%
+34.5%
4 or more
22
2
−43.0%
−55.9%
−77.3%
every day
4,216
—
+21.8%
+52.2%
+145.4%
Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):
Puell Multiple
Next 90 days
Next 180 days
Next year
Under 0.5
−17.9% t −0.8
+4.2% t 0.1
−61.4% t −0.5
0.5 to 1
−4.8% t −0.4
+10.9% t 0.3
+96.3% t 1.1
1 to 2
−3.0% t −0.2
−23.7% t −0.8
−37.8% t −0.5
2 to 4
+31.8% t 0.8
+43.6% t 0.4
too few
4 or more
too few
too few
too few
A Puell Multiple under 0.5 came on 96 days in 11 separate stretches, the last on Nov 21, 2022. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 365 days 100% of the time (+71.4% in the middle case, +85.6% on average): −61.4% against the other days, −131.9% in the older half of the days and −2.3% in the newer. A luck test of −0.5, not past the bar of 3.0: 3 holds that share no day, and a few long stretches decide the average.
§ 03 · The lines
Under 0.5 and at 4
as of · each stretch, from the close of its first day
Each stretch under 0.5, Bitcoin bought at the close of its first day: how much further it fell at worst in the year after (and when), and where it stood a year on.
Stretch
Worst
Year on
Jan 13, 2015 26 days, low 0.34 at $227.00
−24% Jan 14
+91%
Nov 24, 2018 30 days, low 0.40 at $3,932
−18% Dec 15
+76%
Jan 13, 2019 1 day, low 0.49 at $3,477
−2% Feb 7
+133%
May 11, 2020 2 days, low 0.48 the halving, at $8,562
0% May 11
+562%
May 24, 2020 1 day, low 0.49 at $8,720
0% May 24
+345%
Jun 16, 2022 27 days, low 0.44 at $20,401
−23% Nov 21
+29%
Aug 28, 2022 1 day, low 0.49 at $19,556
−19% Nov 21
+34%
Sep 6, 2022 3 days, low 0.48 at $18,791
−16% Nov 21
+37%
Sep 20, 2022 3 days, low 0.48 at $18,875
−16% Nov 21
+44%
Nov 9, 2022 1 day, low 0.48 at $15,923
−1% Nov 21
+130%
Nov 21, 2022 1 day, low 0.49 at $15,781
0% Nov 21
+126%
Each stretch at 4 or more, Bitcoin bought at the close of its first day: how much higher it went at best in the year after (and when), and where it stood a year on.
Stretch
Best
Year on
Dec 4, 2017 20 days, high 5.67 at $11,579
+65% Dec 16
−66%
Jan 5, 2018 2 days, high 4.09 at $16,960
+1% Jan 6
−78%
§ 04 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each day's average takes the 365 days up to it, none missing, nothing after, so every reading is one the day could have made. Neighbouring days share most of their 90, 180 or 365 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 11 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.
The new coins are the schedule's, not the day's own blocks: each era's coins a block (50, then halved at each halving) times its average blocks a day, the era's 210,000 blocks spread evenly over its days, the current era at the last one's pace. The real count wanders a few percent from day to day around that pace, and the multiple with it; the lines, the halvings and the year's average are the same. Miners' transaction income is left out, as in Puell's own measure. The bands were set before any number here was read: 0.5 and 4, the saying's own lines, and 1 and 2 between them. The first reading needs a year of closes, so it starts Dec 31, 2014. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 05 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Bitcoin over the next year against the other days: after a Puell Multiple under 0.5 −61%