Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Bitcoin's four-year cycle: where are we now? Every halving cycle since 2016, day by day

Day 907 since the Apr 20, 2024 halving: Bitcoin at $81,682, −34.5% from this cycle's peak ($124,659 on Oct 6, 2025, day 534). The finished cycles on our closes: the 2016 cycle topped on day 525 (Dec 16, 2017) and fell −83% to its low on day 889; the 2020 cycle topped on day 546 (Nov 8, 2021) and fell −77% to its low on day 924. 3 cycles are the whole record: a pattern to know, not a law - no luck test can tell two or three cases from chance. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Since the halving

day 907

Apr 20, 2024

From the cycle's high

−34.5%

$124,659, day 534

2016 cycle's top

day 525

Dec 16, 2017

2020 cycle's top

day 546

Nov 8, 2021

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Where we are

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's closes, Jul 9, 2016 to Oct 14, 2026

"The four-year cycle", the saying goes: every four years or so Bitcoin's new supply is cut in half - the halving - and its price has run to a peak about a year and a half later, then fallen most of the way back over the year after. Here each halving on our hand-checked file opens a cycle that runs to the next, and every close is counted in days since its halving.

Oct 14, 2026: day 907 since the Apr 20, 2024 halving. Bitcoin closed at $81,682, −34.5% from this cycle's peak ($124,659 on Oct 6, 2025, day 534). On the same day of the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin stood −80% from that cycle's peak; its low came on day 889. On the same day of the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin stood −69% from that cycle's peak; its low came on day 924.

the 2024 cyclethe 2020 cyclethe 2016 cycleeach cycle's peakthe low after it

§ 02 · The cycles

Every cycle

as of Oct 15, 2026 · each halving to the next, on Bitcoin's daily closes

The cycle	Halving-day close	The peak	Day	From the halving	The low after it	Day	Fall
2016 cycle Jul 9, 2016	$647.78	$19,103 Dec 16, 2017	525	+2849%	$3,212 Dec 15, 2018	889	−83%
2020 cycle May 11, 2020	$8,562	$67,526 Nov 8, 2021	546	+689%	$15,781 Nov 21, 2022	924	−77%
2024 cycle Apr 20, 2024 - today	$64,941	$124,659 Oct 6, 2025	534	+92%	$58,625 Jun 30, 2026, so far	801	−53%

Days count from the halving's day. A cycle's peak - its highest close in the two years after its halving, since the run-up before the next halving can pass it (March 2024's close was over November 2021's) - and the low after it are read on Bitcoin's daily closes (Bitstamp's to Aug 16, 2017, ours after), which start on Jul 9, 2016. The current cycle's peak is the highest so far and its low the lowest since that peak: both can still move.

§ 03 · How to read it

How to read it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

Our other studies set a reading against all the days that did not have it, with a luck test, because each holds hundreds of cases. A halving comes every four years: the finished cycles here are the whole record, and no test can tell two or three cases from chance. So this page counts and does not judge - the days, the highs, the falls as they were, and where today sits among them.

Each line is Bitcoin's close against its own cycle's peak (1 at the peak, a log scale; over 1 where a run-up before the next halving passed it), every 7 days, so cycles of very different prices can be laid over each other. The halving days are the blocks 420,000, 630,000 and 840,000 (the explorers' records, on our hand-checked file); the next is due at block 1,050,000, its day not knowable yet. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026the 2016 cycle: its peak on Dec 16, 2017, the low after it on Dec 15, 2018; the 2020 cycle: its peak on Nov 8, 2021, the low after it on Nov 21, 2022; the 2024 cycle: its peak on Oct 6, 2025, the low after it on Jun 30, 2026

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026