§ 01 · Today
Today's calm
Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's 30-day volatility, Nov 27, 2014 to Oct 14, 2026
"The calm before the storm", traders say: when Bitcoin goes quiet for weeks - its daily moves small, its chart flat, "the squeeze" - a big move is coming, one way or the other. Here quiet is measured, not eyeballed: Bitcoin's volatility (how widely its last 30 daily moves spread, as a year's rate) on each day, ranked against the 365 days before it, and every such day is a buy at that day's close, held 30 or 90 days. "A big move" is the largest move away from that close, either way, at any close of the hold.
Oct 14, 2026: 39% a year, calmer than 61% of the year before: usual band (the year's calmest reading: 22%).
Bitcoin's 30-day volatility from 2014 to 2026, a reading every week: 2014 between 44% and 77% a year; 2015 between 21% and 164% a year; 2016 between 15% and 94% a year; 2017 between 33% and 145% a year; 2018 between 34% and 158% a year; 2019 between 23% and 131% a year; 2020 between 26% and 210% a year; 2021 between 53% and 121% a year; 2022 between 28% and 96% a year; 2023 between 25% and 70% a year; 2024 between 25% and 82% a year; 2025 between 26% and 72% a year; 2026 between 22% and 83% a year; today 39%, calmer than 61% of the year before Bitcoin's 30-day volatility, every week 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Week of Dec 18, 2014 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of Jan 15, 2015 · volatility 151% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Feb 12, 2015 · volatility 148% a year · calmer than 8% of the year before Week of Mar 12, 2015 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 55% of the year before Week of Apr 9, 2015 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of May 7, 2015 · volatility 50% a year · calmer than 76% of the year before Week of Jun 4, 2015 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Jul 2, 2015 · volatility 32% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of Jul 30, 2015 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 68% of the year before Week of Aug 27, 2015 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 30% of the year before Week of Sep 24, 2015 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Oct 22, 2015 · volatility 29% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Nov 19, 2015 · volatility 95% a year · calmer than 9% of the year before Week of Dec 17, 2015 · volatility 59% a year · calmer than 45% of the year before Week of Jan 14, 2016 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of Feb 11, 2016 · volatility 87% a year · calmer than 14% of the year before Week of Mar 10, 2016 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Apr 7, 2016 · volatility 17% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of May 5, 2016 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 81% of the year before Week of Jun 2, 2016 · volatility 41% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of Jun 30, 2016 · volatility 88% a year · calmer than 8% of the year before Week of Jul 28, 2016 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 52% of the year before Week of Aug 25, 2016 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 53% of the year before Week of Sep 22, 2016 · volatility 22% a year · calmer than 91% of the year before Week of Oct 20, 2016 · volatility 17% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Nov 17, 2016 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 48% of the year before Week of Dec 15, 2016 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 74% of the year before Week of Jan 12, 2017 · volatility 92% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Feb 9, 2017 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 16% of the year before Week of Mar 9, 2017 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 30% of the year before Week of Apr 6, 2017 · volatility 98% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of May 4, 2017 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 69% of the year before Week of Jun 1, 2017 · volatility 86% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Jun 29, 2017 · volatility 87% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jul 27, 2017 · volatility 128% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Aug 24, 2017 · volatility 77% a year · calmer than 37% of the year before Week of Sep 21, 2017 · volatility 125% a year · calmer than 7% of the year before Week of Oct 19, 2017 · volatility 74% a year · calmer than 53% of the year before Week of Nov 16, 2017 · volatility 94% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Dec 14, 2017 · volatility 111% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Jan 11, 2018 · volatility 140% a year · calmer than 3% of the year before Week of Feb 8, 2018 · volatility 145% a year · calmer than 5% of the year before Week of Mar 8, 2018 · volatility 109% a year · calmer than 41% of the year before Week of Apr 5, 2018 · volatility 93% a year · calmer than 52% of the year before Week of May 3, 2018 · volatility 86% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of May 31, 2018 · volatility 57% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Jun 28, 2018 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 90% of the year before Week of Jul 26, 2018 · volatility 64% a year · calmer than 91% of the year before Week of Aug 23, 2018 · volatility 57% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Sep 20, 2018 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Oct 18, 2018 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Nov 15, 2018 · volatility 35% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Dec 13, 2018 · volatility 97% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Jan 10, 2019 · volatility 84% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Feb 7, 2019 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 87% of the year before Week of Mar 7, 2019 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of Apr 4, 2019 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of May 2, 2019 · volatility 37% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of May 30, 2019 · volatility 83% a year · calmer than 11% of the year before Week of Jun 27, 2019 · volatility 90% a year · calmer than 7% of the year before Week of Jul 25, 2019 · volatility 126% a year · calmer than 2% of the year before Week of Aug 22, 2019 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 41% of the year before Week of Sep 19, 2019 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Oct 17, 2019 · volatility 60% a year · calmer than 56% of the year before Week of Nov 14, 2019 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Dec 12, 2019 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 84% of the year before Week of Jan 9, 2020 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 61% of the year before Week of Feb 6, 2020 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 77% of the year before Week of Mar 5, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Apr 2, 2020 · volatility 210% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Apr 30, 2020 · volatility 72% a year · calmer than 42% of the year before Week of May 28, 2020 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Jun 25, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of Jul 23, 2020 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Aug 20, 2020 · volatility 56% a year · calmer than 56% of the year before Week of Sep 17, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Oct 15, 2020 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Nov 12, 2020 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Dec 10, 2020 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 26% of the year before Week of Jan 7, 2021 · volatility 69% a year · calmer than 28% of the year before Week of Feb 4, 2021 · volatility 103% a year · calmer than 10% of the year before Week of Mar 4, 2021 · volatility 102% a year · calmer than 15% of the year before Week of Apr 1, 2021 · volatility 63% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Apr 29, 2021 · volatility 61% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of May 27, 2021 · volatility 114% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Jun 24, 2021 · volatility 95% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jul 22, 2021 · volatility 68% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of Aug 19, 2021 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Sep 16, 2021 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Oct 14, 2021 · volatility 76% a year · calmer than 43% of the year before Week of Nov 11, 2021 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Dec 9, 2021 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Jan 6, 2022 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 92% of the year before Week of Feb 3, 2022 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 92% of the year before Week of Mar 3, 2022 · volatility 82% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Mar 31, 2022 · volatility 63% a year · calmer than 65% of the year before Week of Apr 28, 2022 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 94% of the year before Week of May 26, 2022 · volatility 78% a year · calmer than 25% of the year before Week of Jun 23, 2022 · volatility 96% a year · calmer than 3% of the year before Week of Jul 21, 2022 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Aug 18, 2022 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Sep 15, 2022 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 29% of the year before Week of Oct 13, 2022 · volatility 38% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Nov 10, 2022 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 15% of the year before Week of Dec 8, 2022 · volatility 73% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Jan 5, 2023 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Feb 2, 2023 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Mar 2, 2023 · volatility 50% a year · calmer than 68% of the year before Week of Mar 30, 2023 · volatility 70% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Apr 27, 2023 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 77% of the year before Week of May 25, 2023 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Jun 22, 2023 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Jul 20, 2023 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 84% of the year before Week of Aug 17, 2023 · volatility 31% a year · calmer than 85% of the year before Week of Sep 14, 2023 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 42% of the year before Week of Oct 12, 2023 · volatility 25% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Nov 9, 2023 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 44% of the year before Week of Dec 7, 2023 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jan 4, 2024 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 31% of the year before Week of Feb 1, 2024 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 12% of the year before Week of Feb 29, 2024 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Mar 28, 2024 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 2% of the year before Week of Apr 25, 2024 · volatility 52% a year · calmer than 21% of the year before Week of May 23, 2024 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 12% of the year before Week of Jun 20, 2024 · volatility 25% a year · calmer than 95% of the year before Week of Jul 18, 2024 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Aug 15, 2024 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 11% of the year before Week of Sep 12, 2024 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 47% of the year before Week of Oct 10, 2024 · volatility 36% a year · calmer than 90% of the year before Week of Nov 7, 2024 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 60% of the year before Week of Dec 5, 2024 · volatility 60% a year · calmer than 19% of the year before Week of Jan 2, 2025 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 69% of the year before Week of Jan 30, 2025 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 75% of the year before Week of Feb 27, 2025 · volatility 40% a year · calmer than 81% of the year before Week of Mar 27, 2025 · volatility 69% a year · calmer than 10% of the year before Week of Apr 24, 2025 · volatility 56% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of May 22, 2025 · volatility 31% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Jun 19, 2025 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Jul 17, 2025 · volatility 29% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Aug 14, 2025 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 94% of the year before Week of Sep 11, 2025 · volatility 35% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of Oct 9, 2025 · volatility 30% a year · calmer than 83% of the year before Week of Nov 6, 2025 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Dec 4, 2025 · volatility 49% a year · calmer than 20% of the year before Week of Jan 1, 2026 · volatility 28% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Jan 29, 2026 · volatility 37% a year · calmer than 47% of the year before Week of Feb 26, 2026 · volatility 83% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Mar 26, 2026 · volatility 53% a year · calmer than 17% of the year before Week of Apr 23, 2026 · volatility 41% a year · calmer than 44% of the year before Week of May 21, 2026 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Jun 18, 2026 · volatility 43% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Jul 16, 2026 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Aug 13, 2026 · volatility 22% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Sep 10, 2026 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Oct 8, 2026 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 62% of the year before Week of Oct 14, 2026 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 61% of the year before 39% Bitcoin's 30-day volatility from 2014 to 2026, a reading every week: 2014 between 44% and 77% a year; 2015 between 21% and 164% a year; 2016 between 15% and 94% a year; 2017 between 33% and 145% a year; 2018 between 34% and 158% a year; 2019 between 23% and 131% a year; 2020 between 26% and 210% a year; 2021 between 53% and 121% a year; 2022 between 28% and 96% a year; 2023 between 25% and 70% a year; 2024 between 25% and 82% a year; 2025 between 26% and 72% a year; 2026 between 22% and 83% a year; today 39%, calmer than 61% of the year before Bitcoin's 30-day volatility, every week 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Week of Dec 18, 2014 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of Jan 15, 2015 · volatility 151% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Feb 12, 2015 · volatility 148% a year · calmer than 8% of the year before Week of Mar 12, 2015 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 55% of the year before Week of Apr 9, 2015 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of May 7, 2015 · volatility 50% a year · calmer than 76% of the year before Week of Jun 4, 2015 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Jul 2, 2015 · volatility 32% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of Jul 30, 2015 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 68% of the year before Week of Aug 27, 2015 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 30% of the year before Week of Sep 24, 2015 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Oct 22, 2015 · volatility 29% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Nov 19, 2015 · volatility 95% a year · calmer than 9% of the year before Week of Dec 17, 2015 · volatility 59% a year · calmer than 45% of the year before Week of Jan 14, 2016 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of Feb 11, 2016 · volatility 87% a year · calmer than 14% of the year before Week of Mar 10, 2016 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Apr 7, 2016 · volatility 17% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of May 5, 2016 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 81% of the year before Week of Jun 2, 2016 · volatility 41% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of Jun 30, 2016 · volatility 88% a year · calmer than 8% of the year before Week of Jul 28, 2016 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 52% of the year before Week of Aug 25, 2016 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 53% of the year before Week of Sep 22, 2016 · volatility 22% a year · calmer than 91% of the year before Week of Oct 20, 2016 · volatility 17% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Nov 17, 2016 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 48% of the year before Week of Dec 15, 2016 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 74% of the year before Week of Jan 12, 2017 · volatility 92% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Feb 9, 2017 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 16% of the year before Week of Mar 9, 2017 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 30% of the year before Week of Apr 6, 2017 · volatility 98% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of May 4, 2017 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 69% of the year before Week of Jun 1, 2017 · volatility 86% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Jun 29, 2017 · volatility 87% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jul 27, 2017 · volatility 128% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Aug 24, 2017 · volatility 77% a year · calmer than 37% of the year before Week of Sep 21, 2017 · volatility 125% a year · calmer than 7% of the year before Week of Oct 19, 2017 · volatility 74% a year · calmer than 53% of the year before Week of Nov 16, 2017 · volatility 94% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Dec 14, 2017 · volatility 111% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Jan 11, 2018 · volatility 140% a year · calmer than 3% of the year before Week of Feb 8, 2018 · volatility 145% a year · calmer than 5% of the year before Week of Mar 8, 2018 · volatility 109% a year · calmer than 41% of the year before Week of Apr 5, 2018 · volatility 93% a year · calmer than 52% of the year before Week of May 3, 2018 · volatility 86% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of May 31, 2018 · volatility 57% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Jun 28, 2018 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 90% of the year before Week of Jul 26, 2018 · volatility 64% a year · calmer than 91% of the year before Week of Aug 23, 2018 · volatility 57% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Sep 20, 2018 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Oct 18, 2018 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Nov 15, 2018 · volatility 35% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Dec 13, 2018 · volatility 97% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Jan 10, 2019 · volatility 84% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Feb 7, 2019 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 87% of the year before Week of Mar 7, 2019 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 67% of the year before Week of Apr 4, 2019 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of May 2, 2019 · volatility 37% a year · calmer than 86% of the year before Week of May 30, 2019 · volatility 83% a year · calmer than 11% of the year before Week of Jun 27, 2019 · volatility 90% a year · calmer than 7% of the year before Week of Jul 25, 2019 · volatility 126% a year · calmer than 2% of the year before Week of Aug 22, 2019 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 41% of the year before Week of Sep 19, 2019 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Oct 17, 2019 · volatility 60% a year · calmer than 56% of the year before Week of Nov 14, 2019 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Dec 12, 2019 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 84% of the year before Week of Jan 9, 2020 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 61% of the year before Week of Feb 6, 2020 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 77% of the year before Week of Mar 5, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Apr 2, 2020 · volatility 210% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Apr 30, 2020 · volatility 72% a year · calmer than 42% of the year before Week of May 28, 2020 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Jun 25, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of Jul 23, 2020 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Aug 20, 2020 · volatility 56% a year · calmer than 56% of the year before Week of Sep 17, 2020 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Oct 15, 2020 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Nov 12, 2020 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Dec 10, 2020 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 26% of the year before Week of Jan 7, 2021 · volatility 69% a year · calmer than 28% of the year before Week of Feb 4, 2021 · volatility 103% a year · calmer than 10% of the year before Week of Mar 4, 2021 · volatility 102% a year · calmer than 15% of the year before Week of Apr 1, 2021 · volatility 63% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Apr 29, 2021 · volatility 61% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of May 27, 2021 · volatility 114% a year · calmer than 1% of the year before Week of Jun 24, 2021 · volatility 95% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jul 22, 2021 · volatility 68% a year · calmer than 50% of the year before Week of Aug 19, 2021 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Sep 16, 2021 · volatility 66% a year · calmer than 59% of the year before Week of Oct 14, 2021 · volatility 76% a year · calmer than 43% of the year before Week of Nov 11, 2021 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Dec 9, 2021 · volatility 67% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Jan 6, 2022 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 92% of the year before Week of Feb 3, 2022 · volatility 55% a year · calmer than 92% of the year before Week of Mar 3, 2022 · volatility 82% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Mar 31, 2022 · volatility 63% a year · calmer than 65% of the year before Week of Apr 28, 2022 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 94% of the year before Week of May 26, 2022 · volatility 78% a year · calmer than 25% of the year before Week of Jun 23, 2022 · volatility 96% a year · calmer than 3% of the year before Week of Jul 21, 2022 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Aug 18, 2022 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Sep 15, 2022 · volatility 75% a year · calmer than 29% of the year before Week of Oct 13, 2022 · volatility 38% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Nov 10, 2022 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 15% of the year before Week of Dec 8, 2022 · volatility 73% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Jan 5, 2023 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 99% of the year before Week of Feb 2, 2023 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 78% of the year before Week of Mar 2, 2023 · volatility 50% a year · calmer than 68% of the year before Week of Mar 30, 2023 · volatility 70% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of Apr 27, 2023 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 77% of the year before Week of May 25, 2023 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Jun 22, 2023 · volatility 51% a year · calmer than 54% of the year before Week of Jul 20, 2023 · volatility 33% a year · calmer than 84% of the year before Week of Aug 17, 2023 · volatility 31% a year · calmer than 85% of the year before Week of Sep 14, 2023 · volatility 44% a year · calmer than 42% of the year before Week of Oct 12, 2023 · volatility 25% a year · calmer than 97% of the year before Week of Nov 9, 2023 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 44% of the year before Week of Dec 7, 2023 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 22% of the year before Week of Jan 4, 2024 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 31% of the year before Week of Feb 1, 2024 · volatility 54% a year · calmer than 12% of the year before Week of Feb 29, 2024 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Mar 28, 2024 · volatility 81% a year · calmer than 2% of the year before Week of Apr 25, 2024 · volatility 52% a year · calmer than 21% of the year before Week of May 23, 2024 · volatility 58% a year · calmer than 12% of the year before Week of Jun 20, 2024 · volatility 25% a year · calmer than 95% of the year before Week of Jul 18, 2024 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 40% of the year before Week of Aug 15, 2024 · volatility 65% a year · calmer than 11% of the year before Week of Sep 12, 2024 · volatility 48% a year · calmer than 47% of the year before Week of Oct 10, 2024 · volatility 36% a year · calmer than 90% of the year before Week of Nov 7, 2024 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 60% of the year before Week of Dec 5, 2024 · volatility 60% a year · calmer than 19% of the year before Week of Jan 2, 2025 · volatility 45% a year · calmer than 69% of the year before Week of Jan 30, 2025 · volatility 42% a year · calmer than 75% of the year before Week of Feb 27, 2025 · volatility 40% a year · calmer than 81% of the year before Week of Mar 27, 2025 · volatility 69% a year · calmer than 10% of the year before Week of Apr 24, 2025 · volatility 56% a year · calmer than 27% of the year before Week of May 22, 2025 · volatility 31% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Jun 19, 2025 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 93% of the year before Week of Jul 17, 2025 · volatility 29% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Aug 14, 2025 · volatility 27% a year · calmer than 94% of the year before Week of Sep 11, 2025 · volatility 35% a year · calmer than 72% of the year before Week of Oct 9, 2025 · volatility 30% a year · calmer than 83% of the year before Week of Nov 6, 2025 · volatility 46% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Dec 4, 2025 · volatility 49% a year · calmer than 20% of the year before Week of Jan 1, 2026 · volatility 28% a year · calmer than 88% of the year before Week of Jan 29, 2026 · volatility 37% a year · calmer than 47% of the year before Week of Feb 26, 2026 · volatility 83% a year · calmer than 0% of the year before Week of Mar 26, 2026 · volatility 53% a year · calmer than 17% of the year before Week of Apr 23, 2026 · volatility 41% a year · calmer than 44% of the year before Week of May 21, 2026 · volatility 26% a year · calmer than 96% of the year before Week of Jun 18, 2026 · volatility 43% a year · calmer than 32% of the year before Week of Jul 16, 2026 · volatility 34% a year · calmer than 64% of the year before Week of Aug 13, 2026 · volatility 22% a year · calmer than 100% of the year before Week of Sep 10, 2026 · volatility 47% a year · calmer than 18% of the year before Week of Oct 8, 2026 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 62% of the year before Week of Oct 14, 2026 · volatility 39% a year · calmer than 61% of the year before 39%
§ 02 · After it
What came after it
Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the day's close
Bitcoin's largest swing over the next 30 days after each tenth of its volatility's rank against the year before: rank 0 to 9 20.7% over 686 days; rank 10 to 19 21.8% over 428 days; rank 20 to 29 18.9% over 403 days; rank 30 to 39 21.6% over 338 days; rank 40 to 49 20.0% over 389 days; rank 50 to 59 21.7% over 418 days; rank 60 to 69 23.6% over 395 days; rank 70 to 79 25.9% over 381 days; rank 80 to 89 24.0% over 367 days; rank 90 to 100 27.7% over 505 days; every day 22.6% Bitcoin's next 30 days' swing by how calm it was Volatility the calmest 10% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 20.7% on average · 20% or more 44% of the time · 686 days 0-9 686 Volatility calmer than 81% to 90% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.8% on average · 20% or more 45% of the time · 428 days 10-19 428 Volatility calmer than 71% to 80% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 18.9% on average · 20% or more 38% of the time · 403 days 20-29 403 Volatility calmer than 61% to 70% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.6% on average · 20% or more 40% of the time · 338 days 30-39 338 Volatility calmer than 51% to 60% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 20.0% on average · 20% or more 32% of the time · 389 days 40-49 389 Volatility calmer than 41% to 50% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.7% on average · 20% or more 42% of the time · 418 days 50-59 418 Volatility calmer than 31% to 40% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 23.6% on average · 20% or more 44% of the time · 395 days 60-69 395 Volatility calmer than 21% to 30% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 25.9% on average · 20% or more 41% of the time · 381 days 70-79 381 Volatility calmer than 11% to 20% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 24.0% on average · 20% or more 46% of the time · 367 days 80-89 367 Volatility the wildest 10% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 27.7% on average · 20% or more 55% of the time · 505 days 90-100 505 every day 22.6% Bitcoin's largest swing over the next 30 days after each tenth of its volatility's rank against the year before: rank 0 to 9 20.7% over 686 days; rank 10 to 19 21.8% over 428 days; rank 20 to 29 18.9% over 403 days; rank 30 to 39 21.6% over 338 days; rank 40 to 49 20.0% over 389 days; rank 50 to 59 21.7% over 418 days; rank 60 to 69 23.6% over 395 days; rank 70 to 79 25.9% over 381 days; rank 80 to 89 24.0% over 367 days; rank 90 to 100 27.7% over 505 days; every day 22.6% Bitcoin's next 30 days' swing by how calm it was Volatility the calmest 10% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 20.7% on average · 20% or more 44% of the time · 686 days 0-9 686 Volatility calmer than 81% to 90% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.8% on average · 20% or more 45% of the time · 428 days Volatility calmer than 71% to 80% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 18.9% on average · 20% or more 38% of the time · 403 days 20-29 403 Volatility calmer than 61% to 70% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.6% on average · 20% or more 40% of the time · 338 days Volatility calmer than 51% to 60% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 20.0% on average · 20% or more 32% of the time · 389 days 40-49 389 Volatility calmer than 41% to 50% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 21.7% on average · 20% or more 42% of the time · 418 days Volatility calmer than 31% to 40% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 23.6% on average · 20% or more 44% of the time · 395 days 60-69 395 Volatility calmer than 21% to 30% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 25.9% on average · 20% or more 41% of the time · 381 days Volatility calmer than 11% to 20% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 24.0% on average · 20% or more 46% of the time · 367 days 80-89 367 Volatility the wildest 10% of its year · the largest swing over the next 30 days: 27.7% on average · 20% or more 55% of the time · 505 days every day 22.6% under each bar: its days
The swing: the largest move away from the day's close, up or down, at any close of the hold; the move: where Bitcoin stood at the hold's end. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):
The quietest days (the calmest 10% of their year) came on 686 days in 31 separate stretches, the last on Aug 18, 2026. From the close of one of those days, Bitcoin's largest move either way over the next 30 days was 18.0% in the middle case and 20.7% on average: −2.2% against the other days, −5.0% in the older half of the days and +0.5% in the newer. A luck test of −0.8, not past the bar of 3.0: 35 holds that share no day.
The wildest days (the wildest 10% of their year) came on 505 days in 22 separate stretches, the last on Mar 6, 2026. From the close of one of those days, Bitcoin's largest move either way over the next 30 days was 23.4% in the middle case and 27.7% on average: +5.8% against the other days, +8.0% in the older half of the days and +0.8% in the newer. A luck test of 1.6, not past the bar of 3.0: 27 holds that share no day.
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
Oct 15, 2026 · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
Each day's volatility is the spread (the standard deviation) of Bitcoin's last 30 daily moves in log terms, times the square root of 365 to make it a year's rate; its rank is the share of the 365 days before that were calmer - only the past, so a day never ranks on later ones. Neighbouring days share most of their 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day. With 10 tests on the swing (five bands, two holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side; which way it moved is 10 tests of its own.
The bands were set before any number here was read: the calmest 10% of the year, the calmest 10% to 30%, the middle 40%, the wildest 10% to 30%, the wildest 10%. Volatility comes in spells - a calm month tends to be followed by another - which is the other side of the saying: a quiet market can stay quiet. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions 1 dated
Revisions
Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Oct 15, 2026 Bitcoin's largest swing over the next 30 days against the other days: after the quietest days −2% · after the wildest +6%
§ 05 · More
More research
Oct 15, 2026