Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Is Ether cheap against Bitcoin? ETH/BTC against its 200-day average, and what came after

One Ether bought 0.0296 Bitcoin at the close on Oct 14: 1.00 times its average of the last 200 days (0.0295), over its average. On the 406 days since 2018 it was under 0.80 of its average, Ether did +1.5% against Bitcoin over the next 90 days on average (ahead of it 50% of the time); at 1.20 or more, −2.4%; after every day, +0.9%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): ETH/BTC spent long stretches in each, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

0.0296

ETH/BTC

Against its average

1.00

over its average

Under 0.80

+1.5%

Ether against Bitcoin, 90 days

Every day

+0.9%

Ether against Bitcoin, 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's ratio

as of Oct 15, 2026 · our daily closes, Mar 4, 2018 to Oct 14, 2026

ETH/BTC is the price of one Ether in Bitcoin: Ether's close over Bitcoin's. When it falls, Ether trails Bitcoin; "Ether is cheap against Bitcoin" says it fell far enough to catch up. Here each day's ratio is set against its own average of the last 200 days (1.00 on the average, 0.80 a fifth under it), and every day from the 200th is a buy of Ether against Bitcoin at that day's closes, held 30 or 90 days.

Oct 14, 2026: one Ether bought 0.0296 Bitcoin, 1.00 times its 200-day average of 0.0295: over its average.

ETH/BTC (a log scale)its 200-day average

Put ETH/BTC on your site

Two lines anywhere in a page show today's reading and its last year, updated daily, with the link back here (more):

<div data-patternplus="index:ethbtc"></div>
<script src="https://pattern.plus/embed.js" async></script>

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Ether against Bitcoin, from the reading day's closes

Ether against Bitcoin, the next 90 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Against its average	Days	Stretches	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
far under under 0.80	406	11	−1.4%	+1.5%
under 0.80 to 0.99	1,399	30	+1.5%	+1.6%
over 1.00 to 1.19	895	35	+0.5%	+0.9%
well over 1.20 or more	417	11	−1.2%	−2.4%
every day	3,117	—	+0.5%	+0.9%

Ether against Bitcoin is the move of ETH/BTC itself: what an Ether bought with Bitcoin was worth in Bitcoin at the end, on average. Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Against its average	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
under 0.80	−2.2% t −0.4	+0.7% t 0.1
0.80 to 0.99	+1.9% t 0.7	+1.4% t 0.2
1.00 to 1.19	−0.0% t −0.0	+0.1% t 0.0
1.20 or more	−1.9% t −0.4	−3.8% t −0.5

Far under its average (under 0.80 of its average) came on 406 days in 11 separate stretches, the last on May 9, 2025. Ether bought against Bitcoin on one of those days did +1.5% against it over the next 90 days on average, ahead of it 50% of the time: +0.7% against the other days, −6.6% in the older half of the days and +9.4% in the newer. A luck test of 0.1, not past the bar of 3.0: 7 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

Well over its average (1.20 or more of its average) came on 417 days in 11 separate stretches, the last on Oct 27, 2025. Ether bought against Bitcoin on one of those days did −2.4% against it over the next 90 days on average, ahead of it 44% of the time: −3.8% against the other days, −6.2% in the older half of the days and −4.5% in the newer. A luck test of −0.5, not past the bar of 3.0: 8 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Every day from the 200th reading is a buy of Ether against Bitcoin at that day's closes: its average takes that day's ratio and the 199 before it, nothing after. Neighbouring days share most of their 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and the band is set against all the other days over the same hold. The averages on this page use every day. With 8 tests (four bands, two holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: 0.80, 1.00 and 1.20 of the average. ETH/BTC runs in long trends, so its far ends come in a few long stretches: hundreds of days can be a handful of holds that share no day. Moves are before trading costs and funding.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Ether against Bitcoin over the next 90 days against the other days: under 0.80 +1% · 1.20 or more −4%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026