Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Does Bitcoin follow the stock market? Bitcoin against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, tested

Over the last 90 trading days, Bitcoin's daily moves had a correlation of 0.39 with the S&P 500 and 0.40 with the Nasdaq (1 is in lockstep, 0 unrelated); year by year since 2017 its correlation with the S&P 500 ran from -0.11 (2019) to 0.56 (2022). The Nasdaq closed 3.3% under its 52-week high on Oct 14 (near its high). On the 342 days since 2014 it stood 20% or more under its high (a bear market), Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +8.3% over the next 90 days on average, against +22.0% after the other days; within 5% of its high, +22.3%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the Nasdaq's bear markets are a few long stretches, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Correlation, S&P 500

0.39

the last 90 trading days

The Nasdaq

−3.3%

near its high, Oct 14

After a bear market (20%+)

+8.3%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

Every day

+20.9%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today

as of Oct 15, 2026 · FRED's S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closes, our Bitcoin closes, to Oct 14, 2026

"Bitcoin is just a leveraged Nasdaq", some say; others call it digital gold that goes its own way. Here every trading day since 2014 sets Bitcoin's daily move against the S&P 500's and the Nasdaq Composite's (the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq from FRED): how closely they move together (the correlation: 1 in lockstep, 0 unrelated, below 0 opposite ways), and how far Bitcoin moved for each 1% of the index (its beta). Then the saying traders repeat in every sell-off: when stocks are in a bear market, Bitcoin goes down too.

Over the last 90 trading days to Oct 14, 2026, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.39 (a beta of 1.2) and with the Nasdaq 0.40. The Nasdaq closed 3.3% under its 52-week high on Oct 14, 2026: near its high. Its deepest fall on our record: 35.7% under its high, on Oct 14, 2022.

with the S&P 500with the Nasdaqeach point: the 90 trading days to it

§ 02 · Year by year

Year by year

as of Oct 15, 2026 · each calendar year's trading days

Year	S&P 500 correlation	Beta	Nasdaq correlation	Beta	Trading days
2014	—	—	0.00	0.0	251
2015	—	—	0.06	0.2	252
2016	—	—	0.00	0.0	252
2017	0.05	0.6	0.06	0.5	251
2018	0.09	0.4	0.08	0.3	251
2019	−0.11	-0.6	−0.09	-0.4	253
2020	0.45	1.1	0.46	1.0	253
2021	0.25	1.5	0.26	1.2	252
2022	0.56	1.5	0.59	1.2	251
2023	0.16	0.6	0.20	0.5	250
2024	0.36	1.6	0.33	1.0	252
2025	0.42	0.9	0.46	0.8	250
2026	0.46	1.6	0.45	1.1	197

Each trading day against the one before it: the index's close-to-close move and Bitcoin's over the same span, from our close on each day (Bitcoin's weekend falls into Monday's move). Beta is Bitcoin's move for each 1% of the index's, on average. The newest year is so far. FRED keeps the S&P 500's last ten years only, so its column starts later.

§ 03 · After its falls

After the Nasdaq's falls

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next 90 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

The Nasdaq	Days	Stretches	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
Near its high within 5% of its high	2,778	28	+6.5%	+22.3%
A pullback 5% to 10% under it	731	46	+8.3%	+26.8%
A correction 10% to 20% under it	441	20	+2.2%	+11.7%
A bear market 20% or more under it	342	9	+2.3%	+8.3%
every day	4,292	—	+6.0%	+20.9%

Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

The Nasdaq	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
within 5% of its high	+1.2% t 0.4	+4.1% t 0.4
5% to 10% under it	+2.8% t 0.9	+7.1% t 0.7
10% to 20% under it	−4.3% t −1.0	−10.2% t −0.7
20% or more under it	−4.0% t −0.7	−13.7% t −0.7

A bear market (the Nasdaq 20% or more under it) came on 342 days in 9 separate stretches, the last on Apr 21, 2025. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 50% of the time (−0.2% in the middle case, +8.3% on average): −13.7% against the other days, +15.8% in the older half of the days and −11.6% in the newer. A luck test of −0.7, not past the bar of 3.0: 5 holds that share no day, and a few long bear markets decide the average.

Near its high (the Nasdaq within 5% of its high) came on 2,778 days in 28 separate stretches, the last on Oct 14, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 56% of the time (+6.0% in the middle case, +22.3% on average): +4.1% against the other days, −1.0% in the older half of the days and +5.6% in the newer. A luck test of 0.4, not past the bar of 3.0: 37 holds that share no day, and a few long bear markets decide the average.

§ 04 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

The indices close at 16:00 in New York, hours before Bitcoin's daily close at midnight UTC, so a trading day's close is set against Bitcoin bought at that same day's close; over weekends and holidays the last close carries (five days at most). The Nasdaq's high is its highest close of the 365 days up to that day (200 closes at least). The Nasdaq is the one tested because its history on file is the longer: FRED keeps the S&P 500's last ten years only. Neighbouring days share most of their 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 8 tests (four bands, two holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: 5%, 10% and 20% under the high, the lines markets call a pullback, a correction and a bear market. A correlation describes how two prices moved together; it does not say which leads, and the yearly ones swing. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 05 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 90 days against the other days: after a Nasdaq bear market −14% · near its high +4%

§ 06 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026