Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Does new stablecoin money pump Bitcoin? The stablecoins' supply, tested

The stablecoins' supply stood at $306bn on Oct 14: +0.9% over the last 30 days (flat). On the 1,209 days since 2017 it surged (6% or more in 30 days), Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +17.7% over the next 90 days on average, against +10.7% after the other days; on the 573 days it shrank, +15.2%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the supply grows and shrinks in long stretches, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

$306bn

the stablecoins' supply

Last 30 days

+0.9%

flat

After a surge

+17.7%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

Every day

+13.4%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's supply

as of Oct 15, 2026 · DefiLlama's count of every USD stablecoin, Dec 29, 2017 to Oct 14, 2026

Stablecoins are the dollars of crypto: a new one is minted when someone sends real dollars in, and burned when they take them out. "Stablecoin printing is fuel for Bitcoin", the saying goes: new stablecoins are money waiting on the exchanges to come in. Here the supply is every USD stablecoin DefiLlama counts, the dead ones too (UST, BUSD), its change over the last 30 days on each day, and every such day is a buy of Bitcoin at that day's close, held 30 or 90 days.

Oct 14, 2026: $306bn, +0.9% over the last 30 days: flat.

the supply (a log scale; its 30-day change on hover)

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next 90 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Supply, 30 days	Days	Stretches	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
shrinking −1% or less	606	16	+3.0%	+15.2%
flat 0% to 2%	874	35	−0.7%	+3.9%
growing 3% to 5%	463	29	+7.4%	+19.0%
surging 6% or more	1,209	13	+5.8%	+17.7%
every day	3,182	—	+3.6%	+13.4%

Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Supply, 30 days	Next 30 days	Next 90 days
−1% or less	−0.8% t −0.2	+2.2% t 0.2
0% to 2%	−6.0% t −1.7	−13.0% t −1.2
3% to 5%	+4.4% t 1.2	+6.5% t 0.5
6% or more	+3.5% t 0.9	+7.0% t 0.5

A surging supply (6% or more in 30 days) came on 1,209 days in 13 separate stretches, the last on Oct 18, 2025. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 52% of the time (+1.7% in the middle case, +17.7% on average): +7.0% against the other days, +12.6% in the older half of the days and −19.5% in the newer. A luck test of 0.5, not past the bar of 3.0: 17 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

A shrinking supply (−1% or less in 30 days) came on 573 days in 16 separate stretches, the last on Aug 19, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 62% of the time (+8.8% in the middle case, +15.2% on average): +2.2% against the other days, +24.5% in the older half of the days and +3.5% in the newer. A luck test of 0.2, not past the bar of 3.0: 10 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

DefiLlama dates each count at 00:00 UTC, so a day's reading is out before that day's close, where the buy is. Neighbouring days share most of their 30 or 90 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold, which takes out the years Bitcoin simply rose. With 8 tests (four bands, two holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: shrinking, flat (up to 2% in 30 days), growing, surging (6% or more). The supply grows in long waves - most of 2020 and 2021 up, most of 2022 and 2023 down - so its far ends come in a few long stretches: hundreds of days can be a handful of holds that share no day. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 90 days against the other days: after a surge +7% · after a shrinking supply +2%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026