Does the MVRV ratio call Bitcoin's tops and bottoms? Bitcoin against its realised price, tested
Bitcoin closed at $81,682 on Oct 14, 1.53 times its realised price of $53,426 - what its coins last moved at, on average: 1.5 to 2.5 times it. That is an MVRV of 1.53 and a NUPL of 0.35 (optimism or anxiety, in its usual names). Since 2022 it closed under its realised price on 96 days in 1 stretch, the last on Jan 12, 2023; its lowest, 0.76 times it on Nov 9, 2022. Bitcoin bought at a close under it did +116.0% over the next year on average, against — after the other days. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): Bitcoin has spent few stretches at either end, and a year's hold shares most of its days with the next. Past patterns, not financial advice.
as of · Bitcoin's daily closes and realised price, Oct 7, 2022 to Oct 14, 2026
The realised price values every bitcoin at the price it last moved at - the coins' average cost, roughly - where the market price values them all at the last trade. The close over it is the MVRV (market value over realised value): under 1, the average coin is held at a loss, and those stretches have been called Bitcoin's bottoms; past 3.5, its old tops. NUPL, the share of the price that is profit not yet taken, is the same reading another way (1 - 1/MVRV). Here every daily close is set against the realised price it could have known - under it, 1 to 1.5 times it, 1.5 to 2.5, 2.5 to 3.5, 3.5 or more - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that close, held 90 days, 180 days or a year, against all the other days.
Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin closed at $81,682, 1.53 times its realised price of $53,426 (dated Oct 8, 2026): 1.5 to 2.5 times it, a NUPL of 0.35 (optimism or anxiety, in its usual names). Since Oct 7, 2022 it closed under the realised price on 96 days in 1 stretch, the last on Jan 12, 2023; its lowest reading, 0.76, came on Nov 9, 2022 and its highest, 2.80, on Mar 11, 2024.
Bitcoin (a log scale)its realised pricecloses under it
§ 02 · After it
What came after it
as of · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close
Bitcoin's average next yearevery day's averageunder each bar: its days
MVRV
Days
Stretches
Next 90 days
Next 180 days
Next year
Under it under 1.00×
96
1
+35.4%
+59.8%
+116.0%
Just over it 1.00 to 1.49×
425
4
+15.3%
+46.1%
+129.0%
Well over it 1.50 to 2.49×
790
6
+10.4%
+15.4%
+38.0%
Far over it 2.50 to 3.49×
68
4
−5.2%
+1.4%
+6.5%
The old tops' level 3.50 or more×
0
0
—
—
—
every day
1,379
—
+12.9%
+26.1%
+64.7%
Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):
MVRV
Next 90 days
Next 180 days
Next year
under 1.00×
too few
too few
too few
1.00 to 1.49×
+3.4% t 0.3
too few
too few
1.50 to 2.49×
−5.7% t −0.5
−27.3% t −1.0
too few
2.50 to 3.49×
too few
too few
too few
3.50 or more×
too few
too few
too few
§ 03 · How it is tested
How it is tested
as of · methodology
A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.
The realised price is BGeometrics' daily figure (bitcoin-data.com), out a day after its date, so each close reads the one dated the day before it or earlier (ten days older at most: it moves a percent or two a week) - never one it could not have known. Neighbouring days share most of their 90, 180 or 365 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 3 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.
The bands were set before any number here was read: the realised price itself, and 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 times it, where the usual charts draw their zones. The realised price on file starts Oct 7, 2022 - BGeometrics' free history is the last four years, and ours grows by a day each night - so the bear markets and bubbles before it are not in it, and a band needs more separate stretches than that holds before its test can say anything: "too few" is the honest answer until then. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.
§ 04 · Revisions1 dated
Revisions
as of · every change to its headline numbers, dated
This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.
Bitcoin over the next year against the other days: after closes under its realised price 0% · 3.5 times it or more 0%