Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

Is the 200-week moving average Bitcoin's floor? Every close since 2017 against it, tested

Bitcoin closed at $81,682 on Oct 14, 1.23 times the average of its last 200 weekly closes ($66,520): less than 1.5 times it. Since 2017 it closed under that average on 338 days in 10 stretches, the last on Aug 16, 2026; its lowest, 0.66 times it on Nov 21, 2022. Bitcoin bought at a close under it did +116.6% over the next year on average, against — after the other days; at 3 times it or more, −34.8%. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the stretches under the line are few, and a year's hold shares most of its days with the next. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Today

1.23×

less than 1.5 times it

200-week average

$66,520

Bitcoin closed $81,682

Under it

+116.6%

Bitcoin, the next year

Every day

+75.1%

Bitcoin, the next year

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin's weekly and daily closes, Oct 29, 2017 to Oct 14, 2026

The 200-week moving average is the mean of Bitcoin's last 200 weekly closes, almost four years: about one whole halving cycle. Bitcoin has spent little time under it, so the line is often called its floor, and closes under it the bargains of the cycle. Here every daily close is set against the average of the 200 Sunday closes up to it - under it, less than 1.5 times it, 1.5 to 3 times, 3 times or more - and every day is a buy of Bitcoin at that close, held 90 days, 180 days or a year, against all the other days.

Oct 14, 2026: Bitcoin closed at $81,682, 1.23 times its 200-week average of $66,520: less than 1.5 times it. Since Oct 29, 2017 it closed under the average on 338 days in 10 stretches, the last on Aug 16, 2026; its lowest close against it, 0.66 times it, came on Nov 21, 2022.

Bitcoin (a log scale)its 200-week averagecloses under it

§ 02 · After it

What came after it

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next yearevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Against the average	Days	Stretches	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
Under it under 1.00×	333	8	+24.0%	+53.3%	+116.6%
Just over it 1.00 to 1.49×	727	17	+23.8%	+62.9%	+164.4%
Well over it 1.50 to 2.99×	1,615	13	+12.1%	+28.7%	+69.4%
Far over it 3.00 or more×	508	7	−6.2%	−17.4%	−34.8%
every day	3,183	—	+13.1%	+30.9%	+75.1%

Days and stretches count the days with 90 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Against the average	Next 90 days	Next 180 days	Next year
under 1.00×	+12.2% t 0.7	too few	too few
1.00 to 1.49×	+13.8% t 1.0	+40.6% t 1.3	+111.2% t 1.4
1.50 to 2.99×	−2.0% t −0.2	−4.6% t −0.2	−11.8% t −0.2
3.00 or more×	−22.9% t −1.3	−57.7% t −1.8	too few

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Each day's average takes the 200 Sunday closes up to that day (that Sunday's own when it is one, 190 of them at least), nothing after, so every close is read against a line it could have known. Neighbouring days share most of their 90, 180 or 365 days, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold. With 9 tests, a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands were set before any number here was read: the average itself, 1.5 times it and 3 times it. The line needs almost four years of closes, so the first readings come late in 2017; the stretches under it are a few bear markets, and a year's hold rests on a handful of them. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history. It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next year against the other days: after closes under its 200-week average 0% · 3 times it or more 0%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026