Study · re-run every night · updated Oct 15, 2026

When everyone reads about Bitcoin, is the top in? Bitcoin's Wikipedia readers, tested

3,731 people a day read Bitcoin's Wikipedia page in the week to Oct 14: 1.1× the year's usual of 3,410 (usual). On the 151 days its readers ran at 3× the year's usual or more, Bitcoin bought at that day's close did +14.1% over the next 90 days on average, against +22.6% after the other days. No band is clear of luck (a luck test of 3 with both halves of the days agreeing): the crowd comes in a few big waves, and a few of them decide the averages. Past patterns, not financial advice.

Readers a day

3,731

the week to Oct 14

Against the year

1.1×

usual

After a frenzy

+14.1%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

Every day

+22.3%

Bitcoin, the next 90 days

First written Oct 15, 2026 · 1 revision

§ 01 · Today

Today's readers

as of Oct 15, 2026 · People reading Bitcoin's Wikipedia page, Jul 7, 2016 to Oct 14, 2026

"When the shoeshine boy gives you stock tips, it is time to sell": in crypto, the taxi driver asking about Bitcoin. Here the crowd is counted: the people reading Bitcoin's English Wikipedia page each day, Wikimedia's own count with the bots left out, since Jul 1, 2015. On each day the last 7 days' readers are set against the middle day of the year before them - quiet under 0.8×, usual to 1.5×, busy to 3×, a frenzy at 3× or more - and the day is a buy of Bitcoin at its close, held 30, 90 or 180 days.

The week to Oct 14, 2026: 3,731 readers a day, 1.1× the year's usual of 3,410: usual. The busiest week: 250,717 a day, the week to Dec 14, 2017, 9.9× its year's usual.

the week's readers against the year's usual (a log scale; the readers on hover)

§ 02 · After them

What came after them

as of Oct 15, 2026 · Bitcoin, from the reading day's close

Bitcoin's average next 90 daysevery day's averageunder each bar: its days

Readers	Days	Stretches	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days
quiet under 0.8×	1,284	35	+0.3%	+5.5%	+20.0%
usual 0.8× to 1.5×	1,733	44	+7.0%	+23.7%	+64.5%
busy 1.5× to 3×	554	26	+18.3%	+57.9%	+99.1%
frenzy 3× or more	151	8	+5.5%	+14.1%	+29.7%
every day	3,722	—	+6.3%	+22.3%	+53.8%

Days and stretches count the days with 30 days after them; a stretch ends after 7 days out of its band. Today's band is marked. Each band against all the other days over the same hold, with its luck test under it (✓ past the bar, both halves of the days agreeing; the halves on hover):

Readers	Next 30 days	Next 90 days	Next 180 days
under 0.8×	−9.2% t −2.6	−25.5% t −1.9	−50.3% t −1.4
0.8× to 1.5×	+1.3% t 0.4	+2.6% t 0.2	+20.3% t 0.7
1.5× to 3×	+14.0% t 2.1	+42.0% t 1.8	+53.6% t 1.0
3× or more	−0.9% t −0.1	−8.6% t −0.3	−25.2% t −0.4

A frenzy (3× or more the year's usual) came on 151 days in 8 separate stretches, the last on Dec 12, 2024. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 52% of the time (+2.2% in the middle case, +14.1% on average): −8.6% against the other days, −24.9% in the older half of the days and −24.3% in the newer. A luck test of −0.3, not past the bar of 3.0: 5 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

A quiet stretch (under 0.8× the year's usual) came on 1,242 days in 34 separate stretches, the last on Oct 9, 2026. Bitcoin bought at the close of one of those days rose over the next 90 days 38% of the time (−9.6% in the middle case, +5.5% on average): −25.5% against the other days, −34.8% in the older half of the days and −14.1% in the newer. A luck test of −1.9, not past the bar of 3.0: 19 holds that share no day, and a few big swings decide the average.

§ 03 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 15, 2026 · methodology

A luck test (t) says how far a result sits from zero, in units of its own noise: about 2 is rarely luck for one test, but many tests at once need more, which is what the first cut is for.

Wikimedia publishes a day's count within a day of its end, so each close reads the counts up to the day before: the week is the last 7 days out, the usual the middle day of the 365 days before that week (at least 300 of them counted), so the week never sets its own yardstick. Neighbouring days share most of their holds, so the luck test does not count them as fresh evidence: each calendar day weighs in by how many of the band's holds, and of the other days', cover it, so a band counts as the holds that share no day, and each band is set against all the other days over the same hold, which takes out the years Bitcoin simply rose. With 12 tests (four bands, three holds), a result needs a luck test of 3.0 or more and both halves of the days on its side.

The bands and the holds were set before any number here was read. The crowd comes in a few great waves - late 2017, early 2021 - so a frenzy is a handful of holds that share no day, however many days it lasts. The count is the English page's only, and a crash brings readers as surely as a rally. Moves are Bitcoin's own price, before trading costs.

§ 04 · Revisions1 dated

Revisions

as of Oct 15, 2026 · every change to its headline numbers, dated

This study is re-run every night on the whole history: Bitcoin's daily closes from Jan 1, 2014 to Aug 16, 2017 are Bitstamp's, Europe's oldest exchange, and ours from the next day on (on the 3,346 days both have, the two closes differ by 0.06% in the middle case). It was first written on Oct 15, 2026; its numbers last moved on Oct 15, 2026. Each night its headline numbers moved is listed here, newest first.

Oct 15, 2026Bitcoin over the next 90 days after a frenzy (3× the year's readers), against the other days: −9%

§ 05 · More

More research

as of Oct 15, 2026