§ 01 · Every kind of event5 with a clear edge
Every kind of event, clearest edge first
as of · against the same coins' ordinary days
Each cell is the edge in points: the share of past cases that were higher that many days later, minus the share of the same coins' ordinary days that were. Green or red only when the whole 90% range is clear of the ordinary days; grey when it is not; faded and in brackets when there are under 20 cases, too few to say. Hover a cell for its numbers.
| Event | Cases | Next day | 7 days | 30 days | Move size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELIST Delistings | 77 | -39 pts | -32 pts | (-31) | 3.1× |
| LISTING Listings | 30 | +12 pts | -1 pts | -27 pts | 0.9× |
| CPI US CPI releases (Bitcoin's move) | 29 | +20 pts | +26 pts | +6 pts | 1.1× |
| HACK Hacks | 69 | -18 pts | -11 pts | -5 pts | 1.3× |
| UNLOCK Unlocks | 80 | -2 pts | +1 pts | +13 pts | 1.1× |
| PERPS Perp listings | 36 | +8 pts | +6 pts | -13 pts | 1.5× |
| FED Fed rate decisions (Bitcoin's move) | 20 | -2 pts | -9 pts | (-18) | 1.4× |
- After hacks, the price was higher the next day in 28% of 69 cases, against 45% of the same coins' ordinary days: -18 points (90% range -26 to -8).
- After unlocks, the price was higher 30 days later in 45% of 67 cases, against 32% of the same coins' ordinary days: +13 points (90% range +3 to +23).
Source: every measured event on record against its coin's daily closes · fetched
§ 02 · How it is counted
How it is counted
as of · methodology
Each kind's past cases are counted against the same coins' ordinary days in the year before each case, so a kind is never credited with a market that was simply rising.
A case is a past event with a measured move: from the coin's close the day before the event to its close 1, 7 or 30 days after the event day, the same rule as every pattern page. Events that are only known once their day is over, like a day's funding or a day's stablecoin printing, are dated the day after, so no move is counted before the news was out.
A case's ordinary days are every window of the same length in the year before it, on the same coin, that ends before the event: about 330 to 365 of them. The share of those windows that ended higher is averaged over the cases, so a kind of event that happens mostly in rising markets is compared with rising markets.
The edge is the cases' share higher minus the ordinary share, in points; its 90% range is the Wilson interval of the cases' share. A call needs at least 20 cases and a range clear of zero. With 7 kinds and three horizons, a few ranges will clear zero by chance: the pattern pages check every kind on its newest cases, and an edge that holds there is the one to lean on. The move size is the median size of the move 7 days after the cases over the median size of the ordinary 7-day moves, up or down.