PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Updated

Patterns · what usually happens after each kind of event · 357 past events behind 156 patterns

Event patterns and their odds

What the last events like this actually did: every pattern below groups past events by kind, venue, market-cap size, category, unlock size and Bitcoin's trend, and is kept once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move. Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.

Patterns

156

with odds from past cases

Past events

357

measured, each counted in every pattern it fits

Checked on recent cases

94

patterns with 20+ cases

Flipped

23

newer cases disagree with older ones

Coming up

0

scheduled events that match a pattern

The detailsevery pattern with its odds and all of its past cases

Every pattern156 patterns

Every pattern, grouped by event kind

as of · odds counted from past cases

Each row is one pattern: how many past cases it holds, the share that were higher the next day with its 90% range, the 30-day picture and whether it held up on recent cases. Ordered by measured cases — switch to share higher after 30 days.

spot listings 66 patterns

PatternCasesUp next dayOdds · 90% rangeUp 30dMedian 30dWorst 30dRecent cases
Listings 149 41% 41% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-48%)35%–48% 29% −21.7% −90.6% held up
Listings of tokens outside the big categories 148 41% 41% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-48%)35%–48% 29% −21.6% −90.6% held up
OKX listings 81 42% 42% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-51%)33%–51% 28% −22.3% −90.6% held up
OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories 80 42% 42% of past cases were higher (90% range 34-52%)34%–52% 28% −23.0% −90.6% ⚠ flipped
Listings with BTC above its 50-day average 71 42% 42% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-52%)33%–52% 31% −32.1% −80.3% held up
↳ same 71 cases, also listed as: Listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings 68 40% 40% of past cases were higher (90% range 31-50%)31%–50% 31% −19.0% −73.5% held up
↳ same 68 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories
Listings of micro-cap tokens 61 46% 46% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-56%)36%–56% 22% −32.1% −73.5% held up
↳ same 61 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings with BTC below its 50-day average 59 42% 42% of past cases were higher (90% range 32-53%)32%–53% 25% −21.6% −90.6% held up
Listings of small-cap tokens 58 29% 29% of past cases were higher (90% range 21-40%)21%–40% 35% −11.3% −90.6% held up
↳ same 58 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average 58 43% 43% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-54%)33%–54% 25% −21.5% −90.6% held up
OKX listings with BTC above its 50-day average 42 40% 40% of past cases were higher (90% range 29-53%)29%–53% 32% −33.1% −80.3% held up
↳ same 42 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings with BTC below its 50-day average 35 46% 46% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-59%)33%–59% 20% −21.5% −90.6% ⚠ flipped
OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average 34 47% 47% of past cases were higher (90% range 34-61%)34%–61% 21% −20.4% −90.6% ⚠ flipped
OKX listings of small-cap tokens 33 24% 24% of past cases were higher (90% range 14-38%)14%–38% 36% −9.2% −90.6% held up
↳ same 33 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens 33 52% 52% of past cases were higher (90% range 38-65%)38%–65% 18% −34.9% −70.9% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 33 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 32 47% 47% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-61%)33%–61% 21% −42.6% −70.9% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 32 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings with BTC above its 50-day average 29 45% 45% of past cases were higher (90% range 31-60%)31%–60% 29% −29.2% −64.8% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens 28 39% 39% of past cases were higher (90% range 26-55%)26%–55% 26% −30.7% −73.5% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 28 29% 29% of past cases were higher (90% range 17-44%)17%–44% 41% −21.6% −80.3% held up
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of mid-cap tokens 26 50% 50% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-65%)35%–65% 35% −7.1% −48.1% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 26 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance listings of small-cap tokens 25 36% 36% of past cases were higher (90% range 22-52%)22%–52% 33% −13.4% −65.5% held up
↳ same 25 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 24 29% 29% of past cases were higher (90% range 17-46%)17%–46% 25% −16.3% −90.6% held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings with BTC below its 50-day average 24 38% 38% of past cases were higher (90% range 23-54%)23%–54% 32% −24.9% −73.5% held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 22 45% 45% of past cases were higher (90% range 29-62%)29%–62% 17% −42.6% −70.9% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 22 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 21 48% 48% of past cases were higher (90% range 31-65%)31%–65% 23% −27.1% −73.5% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 21 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 16 25% 25% of past cases were higher (90% range 12-45%)12%–45% 44% −16.0% −80.3% under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of mid-cap tokens 14 43% 43% of past cases were higher (90% range 24-64%)24%–64% 38% −0.1% −48.1% under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 14 21% 21% of past cases were higher (90% range 9-43%)9%–43% 21% −14.2% −90.6% under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of mid-cap tokens 12 58% 58% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-78%)36%–78% 31% −7.8% −37.6% under 20
↳ same 12 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 12 33% 33% of past cases were higher (90% range 16-57%)16%–57% 38% −21.6% −64.8% under 20
↳ same 12 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 12 58% 58% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-78%)36%–78% 33% −5.1% −34.3% under 20
↳ same 12 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 11 64% 64% of past cases were higher (90% range 39-82%)39%–82% 18% −23.6% −55.6% under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 10 50% 50% of past cases were higher (90% range 27-73%)27%–73% 30% −37.5% −61.4% under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 10 40% 40% of past cases were higher (90% range 19-65%)19%–65% 30% −19.1% −65.5% under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 10 30% 30% of past cases were higher (90% range 13-56%)13%–56% 27% −30.7% −73.5% under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average thin 9 56% 56% of past cases were higher (90% range 30-78%)30%–78% 22% −24.6% −48.1% under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average thin 8 62% 62% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-84%)35%–84% 25% −9.9% −34.3% under 20
↳ same 8 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average

perpetual listings 44 patterns

PatternCasesUp next dayOdds · 90% rangeUp 30dMedian 30dWorst 30dRecent cases
Perp listings 92 38% 38% of past cases were higher (90% range 30-47%)30%–47% 28% −25.1% −90.6% held up
Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories 91 37% 37% of past cases were higher (90% range 29-46%)29%–46% 29% −24.8% −90.6% held up
OKX perp listings 83 37% 37% of past cases were higher (90% range 29-46%)29%–46% 29% −24.8% −90.6% held up
OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories 82 37% 37% of past cases were higher (90% range 28-46%)28%–46% 29% −24.6% −90.6% held up
Perp listings with BTC above its 50-day average 49 41% 41% of past cases were higher (90% range 30-53%)30%–53% 29% −30.7% −80.3% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 49 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX perp listings with BTC above its 50-day average 44 41% 41% of past cases were higher (90% range 30-53%)30%–53% 30% −30.5% −80.3% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 44 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens 39 33% 33% of past cases were higher (90% range 22-46%)22%–46% 20% −41.3% −72.4% held up
↳ same 39 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings of small-cap tokens 36 28% 28% of past cases were higher (90% range 17-41%)17%–41% 32% −20.3% −90.6% held up
↳ same 36 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens 36 36% 36% of past cases were higher (90% range 24-50%)24%–50% 22% −41.5% −72.4% ⚠ flipped
↳ same 36 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens 35 26% 26% of past cases were higher (90% range 16-39%)16%–39% 32% −19.3% −90.6% held up
↳ same 35 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings with BTC below its 50-day average 35 37% 37% of past cases were higher (90% range 25-51%)25%–51% 21% −29.3% −90.6% held up
Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average 34 35% 35% of past cases were higher (90% range 23-49%)23%–49% 21% −31.6% −90.6% held up
OKX perp listings with BTC below its 50-day average 31 35% 35% of past cases were higher (90% range 23-50%)23%–50% 20% −29.3% −90.6% held up
OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average 30 33% 33% of past cases were higher (90% range 21-48%)21%–48% 21% −31.6% −90.6% held up
Perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 20 30% 30% of past cases were higher (90% range 16-48%)16%–48% 25% −31.0% −80.3% held up
↳ same 20 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 19 26% 26% of past cases were higher (90% range 13-45%)13%–45% 26% −30.5% −80.3% under 20
↳ same 19 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 19 37% 37% of past cases were higher (90% range 21-56%)21%–56% 23% −39.9% −70.9% under 20
↳ same 19 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 18 39% 39% of past cases were higher (90% range 23-58%)23%–58% 24% −41.1% −70.9% under 20
↳ same 18 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 18 28% 28% of past cases were higher (90% range 14-47%)14%–47% 15% −47.0% −72.4% under 20
↳ same 18 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 16 31% 31% of past cases were higher (90% range 16-52%)16%–52% 17% −47.0% −72.4% under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Perp listings of mid-cap tokens 15 67% 67% of past cases were higher (90% range 46-83%)46%–83% 47% −1.3% −54.5% under 20
↳ same 15 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens 11 73% 73% of past cases were higher (90% range 48-89%)48%–89% 45% −2.8% −54.5% under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 11 27% 27% of past cases were higher (90% range 11-52%)11%–52% 23% −19.3% −90.6% under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average · OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average · OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Perp listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 10 70% 70% of past cases were higher (90% range 44-87%)44%–87% 50% −0.4% −37.6% under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance perp listings thin 9 44% 44% of past cases were higher (90% range 22-70%)22%–70% 22% −31.6% −52.5% under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: Binance perp listings of tokens outside the big categories

delistings 32 patterns

PatternCasesUp next dayOdds · 90% rangeUp 30dMedian 30dWorst 30dRecent cases
Delistings 73 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 4-15%)4%–15% 9% −15.8% −40.6% held up
Delistings of tokens outside the big categories 72 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 4-15%)4%–15% 9% −15.8% −40.6% held up
Binance delistings 64 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 4-15%)4%–15% 0% −6.7% −34.7% held up
Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories 63 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 4-15%)4%–15% 0% −6.7% −34.7% held up
Delistings of micro-cap tokens 59 7% 7% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-14%)3%–14% 0% −18.9% −40.6% held up
↳ same 59 cases, also listed as: Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens 54 7% 7% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-16%)3%–16% 0% −20.7% −34.7% held up
↳ same 54 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Delistings with BTC below its 50-day average 37 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-19%)3%–19% 10% −13.7% −40.6% held up
↳ same 37 cases, also listed as: Delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 29 7% 7% of past cases were higher (90% range 2-19%)2%–19% 0% −15.8% −40.6% held up
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance delistings with BTC below its 50-day average 28 7% 7% of past cases were higher (90% range 2-19%)2%–19% 0% −3.4% −6.7% held up
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings with BTC above its 50-day average 26 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-21%)3%–21% — — — held up
↳ same 26 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings with BTC above its 50-day average · Delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average · Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 24 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-22%)3%–22% — — — held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average · Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average · Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average 24 8% 8% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-22%)3%–22% 0% −6.7% −6.7% held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings of small-cap tokens 11 9% 9% of past cases were higher (90% range 2-32%)2%–32% 0% −26.6% −31.0% under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: Delistings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance delistings of small-cap tokens thin 9 11% 11% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-38%)3%–38% 0% −0.1% −0.1% under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX delistings thin 9 11% 11% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-38%)3%–38% 12% −18.9% −40.6% under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: OKX delistings with BTC below its 50-day average · OKX delistings of tokens outside the big categories · OKX delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average

hacks 14 patterns

PatternCasesUp next dayOdds · 90% rangeUp 30dMedian 30dWorst 30dRecent cases
Hacks 43 23% 23% of past cases were higher (90% range 14-35%)14%–35% 40% −5.4% −63.0% held up
↳ same 43 cases, also listed as: Hacks of tokens outside the big categories
Hacks with BTC above its 50-day average 24 21% 21% of past cases were higher (90% range 11-37%)11%–37% 30% −13.2% −60.7% held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Hacks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Hacks of micro-cap tokens 23 22% 22% of past cases were higher (90% range 11-38%)11%–38% 35% −10.7% −60.7% held up
↳ same 23 cases, also listed as: Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Hacks with BTC below its 50-day average 16 25% 25% of past cases were higher (90% range 12-45%)12%–45% 50% +1.3% −63.0% under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: Hacks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Hacks of small-cap tokens 13 15% 15% of past cases were higher (90% range 5-37%)5%–37% 38% −10.5% −63.0% under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Hacks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Hacks of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average 13 31% 31% of past cases were higher (90% range 15-54%)15%–54% 23% −19.5% −60.7% under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Hacks of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average thin 8 12% 12% of past cases were higher (90% range 3-41%)3%–41% 38% −12.6% −34.9% under 20
↳ same 8 cases, also listed as: Hacks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average

Source: counted over every measured event on record · fetched

How the odds are counted

How the odds are counted

as of · methodology

Every figure counts past cases, with a 90% range; it is not financial advice, and past patterns can stop working.

A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time: kind, venue, market-cap size at the event date (micro under $50M, small to $500M, mid to $5B, large above), category group, unlock size and Bitcoin's trend (close above or below its own 50-day average). Patterns go from broad to specific, and every combination with at least 8 measured next-day moves is kept.

Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval), so 60% on 10 cases prints a wide band and the same 60% on 60 cases a narrow one. Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are re-counted on their older 60% of cases versus the newest 40%; a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped everywhere it is shown.

A scheduled event is matched to the most specific pattern whose every condition it meets (ties go to the larger count). Full write-up on the methodology page.