Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a Korean premium spike?
Short answer
87 cases since 2026: in the middle one, a coin moved −6.6% in the 30 days after a Korean premium spike. Lower was the outcome 64% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +26.5% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −31.3% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−6.6%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
64%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+26.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−31.3%
or worse
Cases
87
2026, on 73 days
Higher 36% of the time against 22% on ordinary days (73 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern87 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin's premium on Upbit closed in the top 5% of its past year and at least 2%, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 87 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day.
In our data that gives 87 measured cases on 73 separate days, from Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 26, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 27, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When a coin costs more on Upbit, Korea's biggest exchange, than elsewhere, Korean traders are chasing it. The saying is that such premiums come near local peaks of excitement.
That is the reasoning behind watching Korean premiums; whether it held over our 87 cases since 2026 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 87 cases is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 30 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 73 of the 73 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 87 cases fall on 73 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results22 up · 41 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 26, 2026
Of the 87 cases, 22 ended up, 41 down and 24 sideways (within ±6.9%) 30 days later; the middle case −6.6%, the average day −5.3%.
ended up (22)ended down (41)sideways, within ±6.9% (24)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 108 86 days | −0.70% | −0.57% | 48% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 96 82 days | −3.2% | −2.4% | 33% | 36% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 87 73 days | −6.6% | −10.0% | 36% | 22% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.70% over 108 cases; 7 days, typical −3.2% over 96 cases.
By market cap: mid caps +6.6% over 4 cases; small caps −14.6% over 17 cases; micro caps −6.6% over 66 cases.
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 4 | +6.6% | 50% | 50% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 17 | −14.6% | 23% | 77% |
| under $50M micro caps | 66 | −6.6% | 38% | 62% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANTRA | Korean premium: MANTRA +12.9% on Upbit | open | open | open | |
| EGLD | Korean premium: EGLD +22.4% on Upbit | open | open | open | |
| WAXP | Korean premium: WAXP +2.8% on Upbit | open | open | open | |
| BABY | Korean premium: BABY +73.0% on Upbit | open | open | open | |
| ORDER | Korean premium: ORDER +6.0% on Upbit | −43.9% | open | open | |
| IN | Korean premium: IN +6.8% on Upbit | −12.5% | open | open | |
| BIRB | Korean premium: BIRB +3.7% on Upbit | −14.5% | open | open | |
| ANIME | Korean premium: ANIME +2.4% on Upbit | −24.3% | open | open | |
| MBL | Korean premium: MBL +3.9% on Upbit | +7.0% | open | open | |
| IOST | Korean premium: IOST +4.6% on Upbit | −9.4% | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 26, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from Korean premiums at 30 days, so the 87 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 36% of 73 days ended higher against 22% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (26% to 48%).
A typical −6.6% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +26.5% and one in 10 beyond −31.3%.
Calls made from Korean premiums have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 87 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 87 cases, one case moves the share that ended lower by 1.1 points.
The older half of the days leaned −3 points against ordinary days and the newer half +31 points: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 87 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Korean premiums did from 2026 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a Korean premium spike?
- In 64% of 87 cases from Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 26, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 36% against 22% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −6.6% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +26.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −31.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 87 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −6.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 27, 2026: MANTRA, Korean premium: MANTRA +12.9% on Upbit.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 26, 2026.