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What happens to a micro-cap coin in the 30 days after a new one-year low?

Short answer

3,045 cases since 2019: in the middle one, a micro-cap coin moved −4.7% in the 30 days after a new one-year low. 60% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +33.7%, one in 10 worse than −28.5%. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−4.7%

over the next 30 days, the middle case

How often

60%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+33.7%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−28.5%

or worse

Cases

3,045

2019-2026, on 540 days

Higher 40% of the time against 31% on ordinary days (540 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.

3,045 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern3,045 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is the lowest close of the 365 days before it, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 3,045 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.

In our data that gives 3,045 measured cases on 540 separate days, from Sep 24, 2019 to Sep 26, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 27, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A new one-year low means everyone who held the coin over the past year is at a loss. Some traders see value there; others expect more holders to give up first.

That is the reasoning behind watching one-year lows; whether it held over our 3,045 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 3,045 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 540 of the 540 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 3,045 cases fall on 540 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of one-year lows within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 3,045 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results877 up · 1304 down

Results

as of · every past case, Sep 24, 2019 to Sep 26, 2026

Of the 3,045 cases, 877 ended up, 1,304 down and 864 sideways (within ±7.9%) 30 days later; the middle case −4.7%, the average day +2.5%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 877 cases ended up, 1304 down, 864 sideways; the typical move −4.7%−50.0%0%+50.0%+100.0%OXT · Feb 24, 2022 · OXT −3.3% that day · +25.6% 30 days laterWAVES · May 11, 2022 · WAVES −33.2% that day · −12.3% 30 days laterWIN · Sep 2, 2022 · WIN −3.3% that day · −6.1% 30 days laterFARM · Nov 9, 2022 · FARM −23.0% that day · +36.0% 30 days laterKNC · Dec 19, 2022 · KNC −5.3% that day · +52.3% 30 days laterQI · Jun 10, 2023 · QI −15.3% that day · +16.3% 30 days laterDOT · Aug 31, 2023 · DOT −5.8% that day · −3.9% 30 days laterGMT · Jul 4, 2024 · GMT −13.9% that day · −10.3% 30 days laterSUSHI · Aug 5, 2024 · SUSHI −9.6% that day · +19.2% 30 days laterILV · Jan 27, 2025 · ILV −3.0% that day · −43.5% 30 days laterLAT · Feb 6, 2025 · LAT −10.4% that day · −17.5% 30 days laterCHESS · Mar 8, 2025 · CHESS −2.2% that day · −47.6% 30 days laterACS · Mar 30, 2025 · ACS −2.4% that day · +5.8% 30 days laterWNCG · Apr 8, 2025 · WNCG −3.0% that day · +14.8% 30 days laterDYM · Jun 20, 2025 · DYM −4.3% that day · +48.0% 30 days laterNEON · Aug 1, 2025 · NEON −4.7% that day · +53.7% 30 days later1000SATS · Oct 10, 2025 · 1000SATS −32.2% that day · −8.1% 30 days laterREI · Oct 10, 2025 · REI −30.0% that day · +2.0% 30 days laterARK · Nov 3, 2025 · ARK −12.5% that day · +4.9% 30 days laterUTK · Nov 14, 2025 · UTK −3.2% that day · −14.1% 30 days laterAPI3 · Nov 22, 2025 · API3 −1.2% that day · −19.1% 30 days laterBIFI · Dec 15, 2025 · BIFI −3.0% that day · +107.4% 30 days laterCOTI · Jan 20, 2026 · COTI −11.8% that day · −36.8% 30 days laterBLAST · Jan 29, 2026 · BLAST −12.1% that day · −20.8% 30 days laterLM · Jan 31, 2026 · LM −6.3% that day · −0.93% 30 days laterGLMR · Feb 19, 2026 · GLMR −2.9% that day · −13.6% 30 days laterONG · Mar 8, 2026 · ONG −2.1% that day · +44.2% 30 days laterACH · Mar 27, 2026 · ACH −1.8% that day · +1.1% 30 days laterMLN · Apr 19, 2026 · MLN −11.8% that day · −20.7% 30 days laterMIN · May 23, 2026 · MIN −1.7% that day · −28.1% 30 days laterWMTX · May 29, 2026 · WMTX −3.6% that day · −18.0% 30 days laterGLMR · Jun 4, 2026 · GLMR −8.5% that day · +13.4% 30 days laterLOULOU · Jun 5, 2026 · LOULOU −3.1% that day · +44.9% 30 days laterTHE · Jun 19, 2026 · THE −3.9% that day · −15.0% 30 days laterNUTS · Jul 6, 2026 · NUTS −4.1% that day · +2.5% 30 days laterHAI · Jul 13, 2026 · HAI −2.2% that day · +9.7% 30 days laterEPT · Jul 25, 2026 · EPT −4.3% that day · −9.7% 30 days laterGRIFFAIN · Jul 29, 2026 · GRIFFAIN −3.9% that day · +51.5% 30 days laterEWT · Aug 14, 2026 · EWT −3.2% that day · +14.6% 30 days laterVELVET · Sep 10, 2026 · VELVET −17.3% that day · +47.9% 30 days later−4.7%typicalits day's close+30 days40 of 3,045 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 877 cases ended up, 1304 down, 864 sideways; the typical move −4.7%−50.0%0%+50.0%+100.0%−4.7%its day's close+30 days40 of 3,045 cases, each its own line

ended up (877)ended down (1304)sideways, within ±7.9% (864)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day4,760
669 days		−0.21%−0.34%47%46%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days4,711
658 days		−1.5%−2.5%42%40%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days this post3,045
540 days		−4.7%−10.4%40%31%higher more often than on ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.21% over 4,760 cases; 7 days, typical −1.5% over 4,711 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −10.1% in 2025 to +4.2% in 2024; 4 of 5 years leaned the same way as the whole.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2022 −3.7% over 356 cases; 2023 −0.90% over 177 cases; 2024 +4.2% over 162 cases; 2025 −10.1% over 995 cases; 2026 −4.2% over 1351 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2022 · 356 cases · typical −3.7% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 74 days20223562023 · 177 cases · typical −0.90% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 47 days20231772024 · 162 cases · typical +4.2% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 38 days20241622025 · 995 cases · typical −10.1% · higher 33% · lower 67% · on 174 days20259952026 · 1,351 cases · typical −4.2% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 203 days20261,351Typical move by year: 2022 −3.7% over 356 cases; 2023 −0.90% over 177 cases; 2024 +4.2% over 162 cases; 2025 −10.1% over 995 cases; 2026 −4.2% over 1351 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2022 · 356 cases · typical −3.7% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 74 days20223562023 · 177 cases · typical −0.90% · higher 45% · lower 55% · on 47 days20231772024 · 162 cases · typical +4.2% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 38 days20241622025 · 995 cases · typical −10.1% · higher 33% · lower 67% · on 174 days20259952026 · 1,351 cases · typical −4.2% · higher 39% · lower 61% · on 203 days20261,351
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20192−9.6%0%100%
20202+36.2%100%0%
2022356−3.7%45%55%
2023177−0.90%45%55%
2024162+4.2%62%38%
2025995−10.1%33%67%
20261,351−4.2%39%61%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
VANAVANA −0.7% that dayopenopenopen
FLYFLY −12.4% that dayopenopenopen
ZENTZENT −3.5% that day+0.24%openopen
NODENODE −1.1% that day−0.08%openopen
EPTEPT −7.9% that day+4.0%openopen
CWEBCWEB −3.5% that day−8.4%openopen
CCDCCD −4.2% that day+0.73%openopen
BARBAR that day−1.6%openopen
BANKBANK −2.5% that day+9.3%openopen
APUAPU −2.2% that day+0.43%openopen

10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 25, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from one-year lows at 30 days, so the 3,045 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (40% against 31% over 540 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

The typical move of −4.7% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−28.5% to +33.7%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from one-year lows have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 3,045 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 3,045 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what one-year lows did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a micro-cap coin end lower in the 30 days after a new one-year low?
  • In 60% of 3,045 cases from Sep 24, 2019 to Sep 26, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 40% against 31% on each coin's own ordinary days.
What was the typical move?
  • The middle case moved −4.7% over the next 30 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +33.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −28.5% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 3,045 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −4.7% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When was the latest case?
  • The latest was on Oct 26, 2026: VANA −0.7% that day.
  • Its 30-day window closes on Nov 25, 2026.
Does it depend on the year?
No. The typical move was +4.2% in 2024 (162 cases) and −10.1% in 2025 (995 cases).