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What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a new one-year low?

Short answer

Across 4,407 cases since 2018, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a new one-year low was −4.5%. 59% of the cases ended lower. The best tenth gained +35.5% or better and the worst tenth −29.5% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.

Typical move

−4.5%

over the next 30 days, the middle case

How often

59%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+35.5%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−29.5%

or worse

Cases

4,407

2018-2026, on 589 days

Higher 41% of the time against 33% on ordinary days (589 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.

4,407 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern4,407 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is the lowest close of the 365 days before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 4,407 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.

In our data that gives 4,407 measured cases on 589 separate days, from Sep 8, 2018 to Sep 9, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 9, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A new one-year low means everyone who held the coin over the past year is at a loss. Some traders see value there; others expect more holders to give up first.

That is the reasoning behind watching one-year lows; whether it held over our 4,407 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • Every one of the 4,407 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 589 of the 589 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 4,407 cases fall on 589 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • A run of one-year lows within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 4,407 cases overlap.

§ 04 · Results1347 up · 1842 down

Results

as of · every past case, Sep 8, 2018 to Sep 9, 2026

Of the 4,407 cases, 1,347 ended up, 1,842 down and 1,218 sideways (within ±7.9%) 30 days later; the middle case −4.5%, the average day +3.0%.

Every drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 1347 cases ended up, 1842 down, 1218 sideways; the typical move −4.5%0%+200.0%+400.0%BEL · Jan 21, 2022 · BEL −13.9% that day · −19.1% 30 days laterBAND · Apr 29, 2022 · BAND −7.5% that day · −52.2% 30 days laterSTORJ · May 11, 2022 · STORJ −23.2% that day · +2.1% 30 days laterOCEAN · Jun 13, 2022 · OCEAN −11.2% that day · −15.2% 30 days laterPERP · Oct 11, 2022 · PERP −3.2% that day · −28.0% 30 days laterLRC · Nov 9, 2022 · LRC −17.6% that day · +12.5% 30 days laterBLZ · Dec 19, 2022 · BLZ −4.3% that day · +14.2% 30 days laterATM · Jun 10, 2023 · ATM −10.1% that day · +18.1% 30 days laterDATA · Aug 17, 2023 · DATA −3.7% that day · +5.1% 30 days laterYFI · Oct 12, 2023 · YFI −1.0% that day · +75.8% 30 days laterC98 · Aug 3, 2024 · C98 −6.4% that day · −9.1% 30 days laterWRX · Oct 25, 2024 · WRX −6.9% that day · +42.5% 30 days laterPORTO · Feb 2, 2025 · PORTO −8.4% that day · −8.2% 30 days laterTFUEL · Feb 28, 2025 · TFUEL −1.8% that day · −19.3% 30 days laterNIM · Mar 12, 2025 · NIM −3.1% that day · −13.0% 30 days laterLUNA · Apr 3, 2025 · LUNA −3.2% that day · +1.6% 30 days laterMATH · Jun 14, 2025 · MATH −1.5% that day · +10.2% 30 days laterPOLYX · Jun 22, 2025 · POLYX −5.8% that day · +51.2% 30 days laterTRA · Oct 9, 2025 · TRA −2.0% that day · −23.3% 30 days laterRPL · Oct 10, 2025 · RPL −29.9% that day · −0.88% 30 days laterICX · Nov 3, 2025 · ICX −11.0% that day · −8.9% 30 days laterDENT · Nov 16, 2025 · DENT −6.9% that day · −36.4% 30 days laterWLD · Nov 21, 2025 · WLD −9.3% that day · −13.8% 30 days laterCUMMIES · Dec 15, 2025 · CUMMIES −8.4% that day · +31.7% 30 days laterENA · Jan 19, 2026 · ENA −4.7% that day · −41.0% 30 days laterBIO · Jan 29, 2026 · BIO −10.1% that day · −45.3% 30 days laterGMT · Jan 31, 2026 · GMT −9.5% that day · −14.0% 30 days laterSWFTC · Feb 5, 2026 · SWFTC −19.0% that day · +11.6% 30 days laterMLK · Mar 7, 2026 · MLK −0.2% that day · −3.5% 30 days laterZK · Mar 22, 2026 · ZK −3.6% that day · −7.1% 30 days laterXVG · Apr 17, 2026 · XVG −20.2% that day · −15.0% 30 days laterSYN · May 24, 2026 · SYN −5.8% that day · +522.3% 30 days laterDEEP · Jun 2, 2026 · DEEP −16.5% that day · −20.8% 30 days laterRPL · Jun 4, 2026 · RPL −6.5% that day · +53.5% 30 days laterSTEEM · Jun 5, 2026 · STEEM −7.4% that day · −4.4% 30 days laterAVL · Jun 25, 2026 · AVL −8.4% that day · −15.0% 30 days laterANYONE · Jul 13, 2026 · ANYONE −9.5% that day · −12.0% 30 days laterMYST · Jul 24, 2026 · MYST −5.3% that day · +28.0% 30 days laterRAD · Jul 29, 2026 · RAD −1.9% that day · +13.8% 30 days laterZRX · Aug 16, 2026 · ZRX −1.8% that day · +44.2% 30 days later−4.5%typicalits day's close+30 days40 of 4,407 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path over the next 30 days: 1347 cases ended up, 1842 down, 1218 sideways; the typical move −4.5%0%+200.0%+400.0%−4.5%its day's close+30 days40 of 4,407 cases, each its own line

ended up (1347)ended down (1842)sideways, within ±7.9% (1218)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day6,806
733 days		−0.05%−0.31%48%46%no clear edge over ordinary days
7 days6,768
723 days		−1.1%−2.3%43%41%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days this post4,407
589 days		−4.5%−9.6%41%33%higher more often than on ordinary days

At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.05% over 6,806 cases; 7 days, typical −1.1% over 6,768 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −22.0% in 2018 to +22.5% in 2020; 6 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.

By market cap: large caps +0.26% over 130 cases; mid caps +0.31% over 302 cases; small caps −3.0% over 1,147 cases; micro caps −4.9% over 2,828 cases.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2018 −22.0% over 5 cases; 2019 −0.10% over 17 cases; 2020 +22.5% over 22 cases; 2022 −5.7% over 716 cases; 2023 −1.1% over 295 cases; 2024 +3.6% over 241 cases; 2025 −10.2% over 1385 cases; 2026 −2.9% over 1724 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2018 · 5 cases · typical −22.0% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 5 days201852019 · 17 cases · typical −0.10% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 7 days2019172020 · 22 cases · typical +22.5% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 5 days2020222022 · 716 cases · typical −5.7% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 94 days20227162023 · 295 cases · typical −1.1% · higher 43% · lower 56% · on 63 days20232952024 · 241 cases · typical +3.6% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 48 days20242412025 · 1,385 cases · typical −10.2% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 171 days20251,3852026 · 1,724 cases · typical −2.9% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 194 days20261,724Typical move by year: 2018 −22.0% over 5 cases; 2019 −0.10% over 17 cases; 2020 +22.5% over 22 cases; 2022 −5.7% over 716 cases; 2023 −1.1% over 295 cases; 2024 +3.6% over 241 cases; 2025 −10.2% over 1385 cases; 2026 −2.9% over 1724 casesThe typical move 30 days later, year by year2018 · 5 cases · typical −22.0% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 5 days201852019 · 17 cases · typical −0.10% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 7 days2019172020 · 22 cases · typical +22.5% · higher 60% · lower 40% · on 5 days2020222022 · 716 cases · typical −5.7% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 94 days20227162023 · 295 cases · typical −1.1% · higher 43% · lower 56% · on 63 days20232952024 · 241 cases · typical +3.6% · higher 62% · lower 38% · on 48 days20242412025 · 1,385 cases · typical −10.2% · higher 34% · lower 66% · on 171 days20251,3852026 · 1,724 cases · typical −2.9% · higher 42% · lower 58% · on 194 days20261,724
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20185−22.0%40%60%
201917−0.10%37%63%
202022+22.5%60%40%
20212+49.5%100%0%
2022716−5.7%40%60%
2023295−1.1%43%56%
2024241+3.6%62%38%
20251,385−10.2%34%66%
20261,724−2.9%42%58%

By market cap on the day

Coins worthCasesTypical moveHigherLower
over $5B large caps130+0.26%51%49%
$500M to $5B mid caps302+0.31%50%50%
$50M to $500M small caps1,147−3.0%44%55%
under $50M micro caps2,828−4.9%40%60%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
XEPXEP −3.9% that dayopenopenopen
SAUCESAUCE −3.0% that day−0.34%openopen
L3L3 −4.6% that day+3.0%openopen
KGENKGEN −12.4% that day+3.7%openopen
BENJIBENJI −3.8% that day+0.40%openopen
SEDASEDA −1.9% that day−8.9%openopen
LYNLYN −20.9% that day−5.5%openopen
SUNDOGSUNDOG −22.4% that day+0.82%openopen
CERECERE −8.4% that day+1.5%openopen
OPENOPEN −9.0% that day+3.3%openopen

10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 8, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from one-year lows at 30 days, so the 4,407 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (41% against 33% over 589 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

The typical move of −4.5% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−29.5% to +35.5%): single cases went either way by far more.

Calls made from one-year lows have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 4,407 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 4,407 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what one-year lows did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

Did a coin usually end lower in the 30 days after a new one-year low?
  • In 59% of 4,407 cases from Sep 8, 2018 to Sep 9, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 41% against 33% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move over the next 30 days?
  • The middle case moved −4.5% over the next 30 days.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +35.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −29.5% or less.
Is this an edge?
  • Not on its own: over 4,407 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
  • The −4.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 9, 2026: XEP −3.9% that day.
  • Its 30-day window closes on Nov 8, 2026.
Does it depend on the year?
No. The typical move was +22.5% in 2020 (22 cases) and −22.0% in 2018 (5 cases).