What moves each coin

§ 01 · In play now38 open

In play now

as of Oct 6, 2026 · its latest case is still inside its window

• PROVEN CRVUSD When it closed below its 200-day average, CRVUSD ended higher a week later 82% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 5, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 33 cases · on average +1.2% against -0.0%Share on Xcopy link
• LIKELY DCR When it closed below its 200-day average, DCR ended higher 30 days later 75% of the time, against 52% on any day happened Sep 9, 2026 · its window ends Oct 9, 2026 · 8 cases · on average +22.3% against +3.1%
• LIKELY GNS When its protocol took twice its usual fees in a week, GNS ended higher 30 days later 75% of the time, against 33% on any day happened Sep 26, 2026 · its window ends Oct 25, 2026 · 8 cases · on average +11.2% against -5.2%
• LIKELY ARPA When it rose three times its usual daily move, ARPA ended higher 30 days later 11% of the time, against 40% on any day happened Sep 12, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 9 cases · on average -17.5% against -3.7%
• LIKELY DYM When it traded five times its usual volume, DYM ended higher 30 days later 8% of the time, against 27% on any day happened Sep 13, 2026 · its window ends Oct 13, 2026 · 13 cases · on average -28.1% against -13.6%
• LIKELY IMO When Bitcoin fell 3% or more in a day, IMO ended higher 30 days later 0% of the time, against 40% on any day happened Sep 15, 2026 · its window ends Oct 15, 2026 · 8 cases · on average -18.6% against -4.2%
• LIKELY PIB When a US CPI release came, PIB ended higher 30 days later 0% of the time, against 34% on any day happened Sep 11, 2026 · its window ends Oct 10, 2026 · 8 cases · on average -22.4% against -5.2%
• LIKELY EVER When it rose three times its usual daily move, EVER ended higher a week later 22% of the time, against 36% on any day happened Oct 3, 2026 · its window ends Oct 10, 2026 · 9 cases · on average -12.9% against -1.3%
• LIKELY BOX When it closed back above its 200-day average, BOX ended higher a week later 75% of the time, against 37% on any day happened Oct 3, 2026 · its window ends Oct 10, 2026 · 8 cases · on average +16.0% against +0.0%
• LIKELY RAD When it rose three times its usual daily move, RAD ended higher a week later 11% of the time, against 44% on any day happened Oct 5, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 9 cases · on average -10.2% against -0.8%
• LIKELY EDU When it rose three times its usual daily move, EDU ended higher a week later 12% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 5, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 8 cases · on average -10.4% against -1.0%
• LIKELY XVS When it traded five times its usual volume, XVS ended higher a week later 14% of the time, against 49% on any day happened Sep 30, 2026 · its window ends Oct 7, 2026 · 14 cases · on average -8.3% against -0.3%
• LIKELY RLC When it rose three times its usual daily move, RLC ended higher a week later 20% of the time, against 45% on any day happened Oct 5, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 10 cases · on average -8.2% against -0.4%
• LIKELY DESO When a big stablecoin print came, DESO ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 40% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +4.0% against -1.4%
• LIKELY ACS When it traded five times its usual volume, ACS ended higher a week later 19% of the time, against 39% on any day happened Sep 30, 2026 · its window ends Oct 7, 2026 · 27 cases · on average -7.2% against -1.4%
• LIKELY OGN When it traded five times its usual volume, OGN ended higher a week later 27% of the time, against 47% on any day happened Oct 5, 2026 · its window ends Oct 12, 2026 · 22 cases · on average -6.1% against -0.7%
• LIKELY B3TR When a big stablecoin print came, B3TR ended higher a week later 62% of the time, against 39% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 21 cases · on average +3.0% against -2.1%
• LIKELY SD When a big stablecoin print came, SD ended higher a week later 55% of the time, against 39% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 22 cases · on average +2.9% against -1.8%
• LIKELY NCT When a big stablecoin print came, NCT ended higher a week later 50% of the time, against 41% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +4.4% against +0.4%
• LIKELY MAV When a big stablecoin print came, MAV ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 42% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.4% against -1.6%
• LIKELY RARE When a big stablecoin print came, RARE ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 43% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.8% against -1.3%
• LIKELY NMR When a big stablecoin print came, NMR ended higher a week later 58% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +4.0% against +0.2%
• LIKELY ALPINE When a big stablecoin print came, ALPINE ended higher a week later 62% of the time, against 43% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +3.3% against -0.5%
• LIKELY SYRUP When a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment came, SYRUP ended higher a week later 39% of the time, against 49% on any day happened Oct 3, 2026 · its window ends Oct 9, 2026 · 36 cases · on average -3.2% against +0.8%
• LIKELY VTHO When a big stablecoin print came, VTHO ended higher a week later 44% of the time, against 41% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.9% against -0.6%
• LIKELY IOST When a big stablecoin print came, IOST ended higher a week later 50% of the time, against 41% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.3% against -1.2%
• LIKELY SANTOS When a big stablecoin print came, SANTOS ended higher a week later 60% of the time, against 45% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.5% against -0.7%
• LIKELY WNCG When a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment came, WNCG ended higher a week later 31% of the time, against 39% on any day happened Oct 3, 2026 · its window ends Oct 9, 2026 · 71 cases · on average -4.7% against -1.7%
• LIKELY PSG When a big stablecoin print came, PSG ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 43% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.0% against -0.9%
• LIKELY AUDIO When a big stablecoin print came, AUDIO ended higher a week later 46% of the time, against 40% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +1.7% against -1.2%
• LIKELY PUNDIX When a big stablecoin print came, PUNDIX ended higher a week later 50% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.2% against -0.6%
• LIKELY SUN When a big stablecoin print came, SUN ended higher a week later 54% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +2.9% against +0.4%
• LIKELY ACM When a big stablecoin print came, ACM ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 44% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +1.4% against -1.1%
• LIKELY TRA When a big stablecoin print came, TRA ended higher a week later 50% of the time, against 42% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +1.5% against -0.8%
• LIKELY BFC When a big stablecoin print came, BFC ended higher a week later 48% of the time, against 44% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +1.5% against -0.7%
• LIKELY BORA When a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment came, BORA ended higher a week later 34% of the time, against 43% on any day happened Oct 3, 2026 · its window ends Oct 9, 2026 · 71 cases · on average -3.2% against -0.9%
• LIKELY BAR When a big stablecoin print came, BAR ended higher a week later 54% of the time, against 42% on any day happened Oct 2, 2026 · its window ends Oct 8, 2026 · 50 cases · on average +0.9% against -1.3%
• LIKELY CRVUSD When it closed back above its 200-day average, CRVUSD ended higher a week later 23% of the time, against 46% on any day happened Oct 4, 2026 · its window ends Oct 11, 2026 · 31 cases · on average -0.6% against -0.0%

§ 02 · Coming up40 dated

Coming up

as of Oct 6, 2026 · its next date is on the calendar

• LIKELY AGT When a US CPI release came, AGT ended higher a week later 7% of the time, against 51% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average -13.7% against +1.7%
• LIKELY ANON When a US CPI release came, ANON ended higher a week later 60% of the time, against 34% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +11.2% against -1.5%
• LIKELY PIB When a US CPI release came, PIB ended higher 30 days later 0% of the time, against 34% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 8 cases · on average -22.4% against -5.2%
• LIKELY BUY When a US CPI release came, BUY ended higher a week later 69% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 32 cases · on average +10.6% against +1.5%
• LIKELY DRIFT When a US CPI release came, DRIFT ended higher a week later 67% of the time, against 38% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +7.1% against -3.6%
• LIKELY VRA When a US CPI release came, VRA ended higher a week later 53% of the time, against 33% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +5.3% against -4.5%
• LIKELY PEAQ When a US CPI release came, PEAQ ended higher a week later 60% of the time, against 41% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +8.2% against -0.3%
• LIKELY TRUMP When a US CPI release came, TRUMP ended higher a week later 58% of the time, against 34% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 19 cases · on average +3.4% against -2.7%
• LIKELY TIBBIR When a US CPI release came, TIBBIR ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 49% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +6.8% against +0.6%
• LIKELY TOWNS When a US CPI release came, TOWNS ended higher a week later 62% of the time, against 37% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 13 cases · on average +3.0% against -3.6%
• LIKELY EVAA When a US CPI release came, EVAA ended higher the next day 64% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 11 cases · on average +6.3% against -0.2%
• LIKELY ZRC When a US CPI release came, ZRC ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 43% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 22 cases · on average +4.3% against -0.5%
• LIKELY ARC When a US CPI release came, ARC ended higher the next day 75% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 20 cases · on average +5.3% against +0.5%
• LIKELY NIM When a US CPI release came, NIM ended higher a week later 56% of the time, against 41% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 32 cases · on average +3.7% against -0.5%
• LIKELY PIN When a US CPI release came, PIN ended higher the next day 60% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +4.7% against -0.2%
• LIKELY A47 When a US CPI release came, A47 ended higher the next day 56% of the time, against 42% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 16 cases · on average +4.4% against -0.3%
• LIKELY KTA When a US CPI release came, KTA ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 41% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 12 cases · on average +4.7% against -0.4%
• LIKELY BENJI When a US CPI release came, BENJI ended higher the next day 62% of the time, against 44% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 26 cases · on average +3.6% against -0.2%
• LIKELY THE When a US CPI release came, THE ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 21 cases · on average +3.3% against -0.4%
• LIKELY ACT When a US CPI release came, ACT ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 22 cases · on average +3.2% against -0.2%
• LIKELY DOGS When a US CPI release came, DOGS ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 24 cases · on average +3.0% against -0.3%
• LIKELY SOLV When a US CPI release came, SOLV ended higher the next day 58% of the time, against 43% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 19 cases · on average +3.1% against -0.3%
• LIKELY NPC When a US CPI release came, NPC ended higher the next day 60% of the time, against 42% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +3.7% against +0.1%
• LIKELY AGIX When a US CPI release came, AGIX ended higher the next day 69% of the time, against 49% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 16 cases · on average +3.6% against +0.2%
• LIKELY BOME When a US CPI release came, BOME ended higher the next day 72% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 29 cases · on average +3.0% against -0.1%
• LIKELY LYX When a US CPI release came, LYX ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 41% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +3.3% against -0.3%
• LIKELY MULTI When a US CPI release came, MULTI ended higher the next day 57% of the time, against 43% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 23 cases · on average +2.8% against -0.4%
• LIKELY IO When a US CPI release came, IO ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 27 cases · on average +2.8% against -0.2%
• LIKELY B When a US CPI release came, B ended higher the next day 20% of the time, against 47% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average -4.7% against +0.2%
• LIKELY GROK When a US CPI release came, GROK ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 44% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +3.1% against -0.3%
• LIKELY SOUL When a US CPI release came, SOUL ended higher the next day 66% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 32 cases · on average +2.8% against -0.1%
• LIKELY AIXBT When a US CPI release came, AIXBT ended higher the next day 65% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 20 cases · on average +2.8% against -0.3%
• LIKELY ZEN When a US CPI release came, ZEN ended higher the next day 59% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 32 cases · on average +2.8% against +0.1%
• LIKELY 1MBABYDOGE When a US CPI release came, 1MBABYDOGE ended higher the next day 70% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 23 cases · on average +2.7% against -0.2%
• LIKELY NOT When a US CPI release came, NOT ended higher the next day 67% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 27 cases · on average +2.6% against -0.2%
• LIKELY HOPPY When a US CPI release came, HOPPY ended higher the next day 48% of the time, against 45% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 21 cases · on average +2.5% against -0.4%
• LIKELY CETUS When a US CPI release came, CETUS ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 22 cases · on average +2.7% against -0.2%
• LIKELY AVNT When a US CPI release came, AVNT ended higher the next day 73% of the time, against 46% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 11 cases · on average +3.0% against -0.4%
• LIKELY CAW When a US CPI release came, CAW ended higher the next day 80% of the time, against 43% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 15 cases · on average +3.0% against -0.1%
• LIKELY GAL When a US CPI release came, GAL ended higher the next day 70% of the time, against 50% on any day next Oct 14, 2026 · 27 cases · on average +2.7% against -0.0%

§ 04 · The whole market

What moves the whole market

as of Oct 6, 2026 · the series we collect, tested on Bitcoin, Ether and the altcoins

Each line is one of the outside series we collect every night (rates, the dollar, stablecoins, flows, positioning, attention), its jumps, drops, one-year highs or lows tested the same way as a coin's drivers, against the market's moves on any day. Proven ones pass the cut for every test at once; likely ones lean the same way on weaker evidence. Proven first, then the biggest effect.

• LIKELY After US 3-month Treasury bill yield jumped, the altcoins ended higher 30 days later 17% of the time, against 44% on any day 24 cases · on average -12.1% against +2.0% · last Aug 30, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After OFR stress: Funding jumped, the altcoins ended higher 30 days later 12% of the time, against 44% on any day 17 cases · on average -16.0% against +2.0% · last Jul 18, 2026 · OFR Financial Stress Index
• LIKELY After Treasury General Account at the Fed hit a one-year high, the altcoins ended higher 30 days later 83% of the time, against 44% on any day 12 cases · on average +25.1% against +2.0% · last Aug 14, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After US yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year hit a one-year high, the altcoins ended higher 30 days later 31% of the time, against 44% on any day 16 cases · on average -12.9% against +2.0% · last Jan 22, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After OFR stress: Funding hit a one-year low, the altcoins ended higher 30 days later 55% of the time, against 44% on any day 11 cases · on average +23.6% against +2.0% · last Feb 7, 2024 · OFR Financial Stress Index
• LIKELY After Base TVL dropped, Ether ended higher 30 days later 8% of the time, against 49% on any day 12 cases · on average -11.1% against +2.5% · last May 20, 2026 · DefiLlama (chains and markets)
• LIKELY After US yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year hit a one-year high, the altcoins ended higher a week later 23% of the time, against 48% on any day 26 cases · on average -5.6% against +0.1% · last Jan 22, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After Henry Hub natural gas dropped, the altcoins ended higher a week later 28% of the time, against 48% on any day 18 cases · on average -6.7% against +0.1% · last Jan 29, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After Tether supply jumped, the altcoins ended higher a week later 61% of the time, against 48% on any day 31 cases · on average +3.9% against +0.1% · last Aug 13, 2026 · DefiLlama (chains and markets)
• LIKELY After US dollar index (broad, trade-weighted) hit a one-year high, the altcoins ended higher a week later 23% of the time, against 48% on any day 13 cases · on average -9.0% against +0.1% · last Oct 18, 2024 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After US dollars per British pound dropped, the altcoins ended higher a week later 32% of the time, against 48% on any day 22 cases · on average -5.2% against +0.1% · last Jun 20, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After Korean won per US dollar hit a one-year high, Bitcoin ended higher 30 days later 11% of the time, against 57% on any day 9 cases · on average -7.3% against +2.9% · last May 14, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)
• LIKELY After Wikipedia readers: FTX hit a one-year low, Bitcoin ended higher 30 days later 36% of the time, against 57% on any day 11 cases · on average -5.3% against +2.9% · last Aug 31, 2026 · Wikipedia (crypto topics)
• LIKELY After OFR stress: Funding hit a one-year low, the altcoins ended higher a week later 69% of the time, against 48% on any day 16 cases · on average +5.4% against +0.1% · last Sep 10, 2026 · OFR Financial Stress Index
• LIKELY After OFR stress: Equity valuation hit a one-year high, the altcoins ended higher a week later 33% of the time, against 48% on any day 12 cases · on average -6.9% against +0.1% · last Apr 9, 2025 · OFR Financial Stress Index
• LIKELY After US federal documents a day mentioning crypto jumped, the altcoins ended higher a week later 73% of the time, against 48% on any day 11 cases · on average +7.6% against +0.1% · last Aug 2, 2025 · Federal Register
• LIKELY After Tether supply jumped, Ether ended higher a week later 76% of the time, against 51% on any day 17 cases · on average +4.9% against +0.4% · last Aug 13, 2026 · DefiLlama (chains and markets)
• LIKELY After Stablecoins on Base hit a one-year high, Ether ended higher a week later 60% of the time, against 51% on any day 15 cases · on average +4.9% against +0.4% · last Sep 10, 2026 · DefiLlama (chains and markets)
• LIKELY After Stablecoins on Base dropped, the altcoins ended higher a week later 25% of the time, against 48% on any day 8 cases · on average -7.9% against +0.1% · last Aug 2, 2026 · DefiLlama (chains and markets)
• LIKELY After US investment-grade bond spread hit a one-year low, Ether ended higher a week later 11% of the time, against 51% on any day 9 cases · on average -6.4% against +0.4% · last Jun 17, 2026 · FRED (St. Louis Fed)

§ 05 · How it is tested

How it is tested

as of Oct 6, 2026 · methodology

A driver is judged against the coin's own moves on any day, never against other coins, so a coin that simply rose all year is not credited to whatever happened along the way.