What moves ADA · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When Ether fell 4% or more in a day, ADA ended higher the next day more often than on any day
Found in 345 cases in ADA's history, the latest Sep 15, 2026. Calls like it, made only from what was known before each one, were right 54% of 6,532 calls since 2019, against 49% for that side on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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Out of sample
54%
right, of 6,532 calls like it since 2019
That side on any day
49%
how often ADA ended higher anyway
Cases
345
in its history, the latest Sep 15, 2026
How it is proven
ADA is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ADA's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ADA ending higher more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Proven on the whole history is not the same as right the next time. So the discovery is also re-run as it stood at the start of each calendar quarter, on what came before it only, and the quarter after it is called with what it found; a kind of finding earns a call on the site only when counting every day once, its side was right more often than that same side won on any day of the coin's quarter, in both halves of the quarters walked, at a Newey-West t of 1.645 or more, on 100 or more scored calls over 60 or more separate days.
Source: ADA's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full