What moves ADP · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When it rose three times its usual daily move, ADP ended lower a week later 94% of the time
Against 55% on any day, from 16 cases (it ended higher in 6% of them); the latest was Sep 18, 2026. On average ADP moved −11.6% a week later, against −0.6% on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
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After it
94%
ended lower a week later
On any day
55%
the same coin, from any day
Cases
16
the latest Sep 18, 2026
Average move
−11.6%
against −0.6% on any day
How it is proven
ADP is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ADP's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ADP ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Source: ADP's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full