What moves ADP · PROVEN · measured Oct 6, 2026
When it rose three times its usual daily move, ADP ended lower the next day 88% of the time
Against 56% on any day, from 16 cases (it ended higher in 12% of them); the latest was Sep 18, 2026. On average ADP moved −6.4% the next day, against −0.2% on any day. Past patterns, not financial advice.
Share on Xcopy link
After it
88%
ended lower the next day
On any day
56%
the same coin, from any day
Cases
16
the latest Sep 18, 2026
Average move
−6.4%
against −0.2% on any day
How it is proven
ADP is tested on its own history every night: each cause against ADP's own moves from any day, its biggest days capped, so one giant pump cannot make a driver. Proven means past the cut for testing thousands of causes at once, both halves of its history leaning the same way, ADP ending lower more often than on any day by a clear margin, and 12 cases or more.
Source: ADP's own daily closes, its events and the market-wide releases on record · measured · the method in full