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What happens to a micro-cap coin the day after a close back above the 200-day average?

Short answer

Across 4,340 cases since 2019, the typical move for a micro-cap coin the day after a close back above the 200-day average was −1.3%. It ended lower 61% of the time. The best tenth gained +6.9% or better and the worst tenth −10.2% or worse. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.

Typical move

−1.3%

the next day, the middle case

How often

61%

it ended lower

Best 1 in 10

+6.9%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−10.2%

or worse

Cases

4,340

2019-2026, on 1,332 days

Higher 39% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (1,332 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.

4,340 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern4,340 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close back above the 200-day average after a close below it, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 4,340 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.

In our data that gives 4,340 measured cases on 1,332 separate days, from Apr 2, 2019 to Oct 24, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 26, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

The 200-day average is the line many traders use to judge the long-term trend. A close back above it after time below is read as a possible turn.

That is the reasoning behind watching 200-day reclaims; whether it held over our 4,340 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • Every one of the 4,340 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,332 of the 1,332 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 4,340 cases fall on 1,332 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.

§ 04 · Results1149 up · 1920 down

Results

as of · every past case, Apr 2, 2019 to Oct 24, 2026

A day later, the middle case stood at −1.3% and the average day at −1.4%; 1,149 cases ended up, 1,920 down and 1,271 sideways (within ±1.9%).

Every drawn case's path the next day: 1149 cases ended up, 1920 down, 1271 sideways; the typical move −1.3%−20.0%0%+20.0%+40.0%COS · Sep 10, 2020 · COS +4.1% that day · +4.7% a day laterWRX · Jan 19, 2021 · WRX +6.4% that day · −1.5% a day laterMBL · Aug 15, 2021 · MBL +4.4% that day · −3.9% a day laterALICE · Oct 28, 2021 · ALICE +5.2% that day · +17.7% a day laterRVN · Jan 12, 2022 · RVN +9.2% that day · −7.7% a day laterMDX · Oct 14, 2022 · MDX +63.0% that day · −20.2% a day laterERN · Jan 26, 2023 · ERN +5.7% that day · +1.3% a day laterCITY · Feb 17, 2023 · CITY +7.6% that day · −4.9% a day laterAUCTION · Mar 28, 2023 · AUCTION +1.8% that day · +2.2% a day laterFLM · May 5, 2023 · FLM +3.3% that day · −3.6% a day laterREI · Sep 7, 2023 · REI +10.8% that day · +37.6% a day laterERN · Nov 5, 2023 · ERN +1.2% that day · +2.9% a day laterALPINE · Dec 5, 2023 · ALPINE +1.3% that day · −3.1% a day laterWAXP · Feb 9, 2024 · WAXP +3.5% that day · +0.12% a day laterPERP · May 9, 2024 · PERP +6.2% that day · −8.2% a day laterTRU · Jul 6, 2024 · TRU +16.6% that day · −6.1% a day laterSANTOS · Oct 28, 2024 · SANTOS +57.1% that day · +0.23% a day laterMTL · Nov 16, 2024 · MTL +11.0% that day · −7.8% a day laterALT · Nov 30, 2024 · ALT +7.6% that day · +8.1% a day laterUSTC · Dec 24, 2024 · USTC +1.4% that day · −2.2% a day laterFLUX · Jan 17, 2025 · FLUX +6.7% that day · −6.4% a day laterBEL · Mar 15, 2025 · BEL +11.7% that day · −2.5% a day laterARK · Jul 12, 2025 · ARK +19.8% that day · −7.3% a day laterUSTC · Aug 4, 2025 · USTC +2.4% that day · −5.2% a day laterLAT · Aug 24, 2025 · LAT +43.4% that day · −26.0% a day laterFORTH · Sep 16, 2025 · FORTH +1.7% that day · +2.7% a day laterATM · Oct 24, 2025 · ATM +2.2% that day · −0.89% a day laterBIFI · Jan 9, 2026 · BIFI +99.1% that day · −7.3% a day laterGPS · Mar 7, 2026 · GPS +3.4% that day · −0.80% a day laterKISHU · Apr 15, 2026 · KISHU +27.0% that day · +1.7% a day laterDKA · May 9, 2026 · DKA +8.3% that day · −1.5% a day laterWNCG · Jun 2, 2026 · WNCG +6.3% that day · −9.2% a day laterMPC · Jul 4, 2026 · MPC +0.5% that day · +0.37% a day laterCAT · Aug 8, 2026 · CAT +36.0% that day · −7.5% a day laterPTB · Aug 21, 2026 · PTB +6.1% that day · −16.6% a day laterSQD · Sep 5, 2026 · SQD +3.8% that day · −1.7% a day laterTRADE · Sep 17, 2026 · TRADE +10.3% that day · +8.6% a day laterMNDE · Sep 22, 2026 · MNDE +0.7% that day · +5.9% a day laterDORA · Oct 4, 2026 · DORA +365.4% that day · −30.0% a day laterGOATED · Oct 19, 2026 · GOATED +3.5% that day · −2.4% a day later−1.3%typicalits day's close+1 day40 of 4,340 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path the next day: 1149 cases ended up, 1920 down, 1271 sideways; the typical move −1.3%−20.0%0%+20.0%+40.0%−1.3%its day's close+1 day40 of 4,340 cases, each its own line

ended up (1149)ended down (1920)sideways, within ±1.9% (1271)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day this post4,340
1,332 days		−1.3%−0.13%39%48%higher less often than on ordinary days
7 days4,278
1,326 days		−3.5%−1.0%38%46%higher less often than on ordinary days
30 days2,860
1,090 days		−9.8%−6.0%35%41%higher less often than on ordinary days

At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −3.5% over 4,278 cases; 30 days, typical −9.8% over 2,860 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −3.4% in 2022 to −0.80% in 2025; 8 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2019 −2.2% over 4 cases; 2020 −1.5% over 134 cases; 2021 −0.90% over 341 cases; 2022 −3.4% over 180 cases; 2023 −1.5% over 724 cases; 2024 −0.83% over 744 cases; 2025 −0.80% over 835 cases; 2026 −1.7% over 1378 casesThe typical move a day later, year by year2019 · 4 cases · typical −2.2% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 4 days201942020 · 134 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 37% · lower 62% · on 87 days20201342021 · 341 cases · typical −0.90% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 148 days20213412022 · 180 cases · typical −3.4% · higher 32% · lower 67% · on 123 days20221802023 · 724 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 35% · lower 65% · on 227 days20237242024 · 744 cases · typical −0.83% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 204 days20247442025 · 835 cases · typical −0.80% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 266 days20258352026 · 1,378 cases · typical −1.7% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 273 days20261,378Typical move by year: 2019 −2.2% over 4 cases; 2020 −1.5% over 134 cases; 2021 −0.90% over 341 cases; 2022 −3.4% over 180 cases; 2023 −1.5% over 724 cases; 2024 −0.83% over 744 cases; 2025 −0.80% over 835 cases; 2026 −1.7% over 1378 casesThe typical move a day later, year by year2019 · 4 cases · typical −2.2% · higher 25% · lower 75% · on 4 days201942020 · 134 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 37% · lower 62% · on 87 days20201342021 · 341 cases · typical −0.90% · higher 40% · lower 60% · on 148 days20213412022 · 180 cases · typical −3.4% · higher 32% · lower 67% · on 123 days20221802023 · 724 cases · typical −1.5% · higher 35% · lower 65% · on 227 days20237242024 · 744 cases · typical −0.83% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 204 days20247442025 · 835 cases · typical −0.80% · higher 43% · lower 57% · on 266 days20258352026 · 1,378 cases · typical −1.7% · higher 37% · lower 63% · on 273 days20261,378
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20194−2.2%25%75%
2020134−1.5%37%62%
2021341−0.90%40%60%
2022180−3.4%32%67%
2023724−1.5%35%65%
2024744−0.83%43%57%
2025835−0.80%43%57%
20261,378−1.7%37%63%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
QANXQANX +8.8% that dayopenopenopen
UPUP +26.2% that dayopenopenopen
STRAXSTRAX +4.3% that day−3.2%openopen
STBLSTBL +4.1% that day−1.5%openopen
PACKPACK +1.3% that day0.00%openopen
ORDERORDER +112.5% that day−34.8%openopen
AXLAXL +7.2% that day−2.8%openopen
BIRBBIRB +14.3% that day−14.1%openopen
AUKIAUKI +6.9% that day−5.6%openopen
ANIMEANIME +28.9% that day−21.0%openopen

1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 26, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Out of sample, calls made from 200-day reclaims showed no clear edge: right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day (Nov 12, 2023 – Sep 18, 2026).

The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 4,340 cases here.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (39% against 48% over 1,332 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

A typical −1.3% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +6.9% and one in 10 beyond −10.2%.

Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day).

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 4,340 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what 200-day reclaims did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a micro-cap coin end lower the day after a close back above the 200-day average?
  • In 61% of 4,340 cases from Apr 2, 2019 to Oct 24, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 39% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move the next day?
  • The middle case moved −1.3% the next day.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +6.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −10.2% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 4,340 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day).
  • The −1.3% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 25, 2026: QANX +8.8% that day.
  • Its 1-day window closes on Oct 26, 2026.
Does it depend on the year?
No. The typical move was −0.80% in 2025 (835 cases) and −3.4% in 2022 (180 cases).