Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a close back above the 200-day average?
Short answer
The middle case of 7,285 since 2018 saw a coin move −0.95% the day after a close back above the 200-day average. It ended lower 59% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +6.5%, one in 10 worse than −8.4%. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−0.95%
the next day, the middle case
How often
59%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+6.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−8.4%
or worse
Cases
7,285
2018-2026, on 1,662 days
Higher 41% of the time against 49% on ordinary days (1,662 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern7,285 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close back above the 200-day average after a close below it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 7,285 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 7,285 measured cases on 1,662 separate days, from Mar 11, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 8, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The 200-day average is the line many traders use to judge the long-term trend. A close back above it after time below is read as a possible turn.
That is the reasoning behind watching 200-day reclaims; whether it held over our 7,285 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 7,285 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,662 of the 1,662 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 7,285 cases fall on 1,662 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results2132 up · 3112 down
Results
as of · every past case, Mar 11, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at −0.95% and the average day at −0.83%; 2,132 cases ended up, 3,112 down and 2,041 sideways (within ±1.7%).
ended up (2132)ended down (3112)sideways, within ±1.7% (2041)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 7,285 1,662 days | −0.95% | −0.10% | 41% | 49% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 7,226 1,655 days | −2.5% | −0.76% | 41% | 47% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 4,751 1,400 days | −6.5% | −5.0% | 38% | 43% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.5% over 7,226 cases; 30 days, typical −6.5% over 4,751 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.4% in 2022 to +1.6% in 2018; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.17% over 466 cases; mid caps −0.33% over 706 cases; small caps −0.85% over 2,052 cases; micro caps −1.3% over 4,061 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6 | +1.6% | 67% | 33% |
| 2019 | 55 | −0.69% | 41% | 59% |
| 2020 | 353 | −0.43% | 44% | 55% |
| 2021 | 719 | −0.63% | 43% | 57% |
| 2022 | 342 | −2.4% | 32% | 67% |
| 2023 | 1,265 | −0.96% | 39% | 61% |
| 2024 | 1,211 | −0.55% | 43% | 56% |
| 2025 | 1,481 | −0.73% | 44% | 55% |
| 2026 | 1,853 | −1.4% | 40% | 60% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 466 | −0.17% | 49% | 51% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 706 | −0.33% | 47% | 52% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 2,052 | −0.85% | 43% | 57% |
| under $50M micro caps | 4,061 | −1.3% | 39% | 61% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NS | NS +0.7% that day | open | open | open | |
| MLK | MLK +0.6% that day | open | open | open | |
| AUDIO | AUDIO +0.2% that day | open | open | open | |
| QRL | QRL +35.0% that day | +3.0% | open | open | |
| LOCUS | LOCUS +0.0% that day | −3.6% | open | open | |
| DINGO | DINGO +26.9% that day | −0.82% | open | open | |
| ZEUS | ZEUS +76.3% that day | +77.1% | open | open | |
| UOS | UOS +36.2% that day | −23.9% | open | open | |
| FHE | FHE +1.0% that day | −5.5% | open | open | |
| ELIZAOS | ELIZAOS +38.6% that day | +32.8% | open | open |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 200-day reclaims showed no clear edge: right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day (Nov 12, 2023 – Sep 18, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 7,285 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (41% against 49% over 1,662 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −0.95% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−8.4% to +6.5%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 7,285 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 200-day reclaims did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did a coin usually end lower the day after a close back above the 200-day average?
- In 59% of 7,285 cases from Mar 11, 2018 to Oct 7, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 41% against 49% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −0.95% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −8.4% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 7,285 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 12 calls since 2023, against 47% for that side on any day).
- The −0.95% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 8, 2026: NS +0.7% that day.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +1.6% in 2018 (6 cases) and −2.4% in 2022 (342 cases).