Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin the day after a Korean discount?
Short answer
Across 57 cases since 2026, the typical move for a coin the day after a Korean discount was −3.4%. Lower was the outcome 77% of the time. The best tenth gained +2.6% or better and the worst tenth −19.3% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−3.4%
the next day, the middle case
How often
77%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+2.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−19.3%
or worse
Cases
57
2026, on 50 days
Higher 19% of the time against 44% on ordinary days (50 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern57 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin's discount on Upbit closed in the bottom 5% of its past year and at least 2%, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 57 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 57 measured cases on 50 separate days, from Jan 1, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 26, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A discount on Upbit means Korean holders are heading for the exit faster than demand elsewhere absorbs. Traders watch whether the discount closes, and what the price does meanwhile.
That is the reasoning behind watching Korean discounts; whether it held over our 57 cases since 2026 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 57 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 50 of the 50 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 57 cases fall on 50 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results7 up · 36 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 1, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at −3.4% and the average day at −3.6%; 7 cases ended up, 36 down and 14 sideways (within ±1.9%).
ended up (7)ended down (36)sideways, within ±1.9% (14)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 57 50 days | −3.4% | −0.51% | 19% | 44% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 54 47 days | −6.4% | −2.4% | 36% | 36% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 49 42 days | −8.4% | −9.5% | 36% | 22% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −6.4% over 54 cases; 30 days, typical −8.4% over 49 cases.
By market cap: mid caps −0.18% over 2 cases; small caps −2.3% over 14 cases; micro caps −3.7% over 41 cases.
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 2 | −0.18% | 50% | 50% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 14 | −2.3% | 35% | 58% |
| under $50M micro caps | 41 | −3.7% | 14% | 84% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBL | Korean discount: MBL -2.1% on Upbit | open | open | open | |
| SOMI | Korean discount: SOMI -2.2% on Upbit | 0.00% | open | open | |
| IOST | Korean discount: IOST -10.3% on Upbit | −32.3% | open | open | |
| MVL | Korean discount: MVL -2.6% on Upbit | −3.3% | open | open | |
| POKT | Korean discount: POKT -3.1% on Upbit | −7.1% | −6.3% | open | |
| MBL | Korean discount: MBL -16.9% on Upbit | −17.2% | −31.2% | open | |
| MED | Korean discount: MED -2.7% on Upbit | +1.1% | −3.9% | open | |
| XCN | Korean discount: XCN -3.2% on Upbit | 0.00% | 0.00% | open | |
| POKT | Korean discount: POKT -2.4% on Upbit | +2.6% | −7.6% | open | |
| XPL | Korean discount: XPL -3.4% on Upbit | +0.63% | −15.8% | −33.4% |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 26, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from Korean discounts at 1 day, so the 57 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (19% against 44% over 50 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −3.4% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−19.3% to +2.6%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from Korean discounts have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 57 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
With 57 cases, one case moves the share that ended lower by 1.8 points.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 57 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Korean discounts did from 2026 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a Korean discount?
- In 77% of 57 cases from Jan 1, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 19% against 44% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −3.4% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +2.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −19.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 57 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −3.4% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 25, 2026: MBL, Korean discount: MBL -2.1% on Upbit.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 26, 2026.