Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin the day after a hack?
Short answer
The middle case of 122 since 2019 saw a coin move −4.6% the day after a hack. 71% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +4.0%, one in 10 worse than −23.9%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−4.6%
the next day, the middle case
How often
71%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+4.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−23.9%
or worse
Cases
122
2019-2026, on 118 days
Higher 30% of the time against 46% on ordinary days (105 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern122 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day a hack of the coin's project was reported, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 122 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day.
In our data that gives 122 measured cases on 118 separate days, from Jan 6, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 15, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A hack can drain funds and damage trust in a project. Traders watch how much of the loss the price takes on the day, and whether the damage keeps building as the details come out.
That is the reasoning behind watching hacks; whether it held over our 122 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 122 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 1 day after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 105 of the 118 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 122 cases fall on 118 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results15 up · 68 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 6, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026
Of the 122 cases, 15 ended up, 68 down and 39 sideways (within ±3.1%) a day later; the middle case −4.6%, the average day −6.9%.
ended up (15)ended down (68)sideways, within ±3.1% (39)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 122 118 days | −4.6% | −0.48% | 30% | 46% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 122 118 days | −6.2% | −2.0% | 33% | 43% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 119 115 days | −10.7% | −7.8% | 36% | 38% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −6.2% over 122 cases; 30 days, typical −10.7% over 119 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −7.6% in 2021 to +1.6% in 2023; 6 of 7 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −11.1% over 3 cases; mid caps −2.7% over 17 cases; small caps −5.6% over 33 cases; micro caps −5.1% over 69 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | −5.2% | 0% | 100% |
| 2020 | 4 | −2.8% | 25% | 75% |
| 2021 | 11 | −7.6% | 27% | 73% |
| 2022 | 9 | −3.8% | 33% | 67% |
| 2023 | 15 | +1.6% | 53% | 40% |
| 2024 | 14 | −6.2% | 31% | 69% |
| 2025 | 21 | −7.5% | 14% | 86% |
| 2026 | 46 | −5.4% | 26% | 74% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 3 | −11.1% | 0% | 100% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 17 | −2.7% | 41% | 59% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 33 | −5.6% | 24% | 76% |
| under $50M micro caps | 69 | −5.1% | 28% | 71% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNCX | UNCX Network V2 exploited for $86k | open | open | open | |
| LOCUS | Locus Finance exploited for $18k | −4.4% | −12.0% | open | |
| NEAR | NEAR Intents exploited for $3.80M | −12.2% | −16.4% | open | |
| NIM | Nimiq exploited for $50.40k | −2.9% | −22.3% | open | |
| ETHFI | ether.fi Liquid exploited for $43.26k | +7.0% | +9.2% | +11.6% | |
| ENSO | EnsoFinance exploited for $13,822 | −0.55% | +0.88% | +5.0% | |
| XRD | Radix exploited for $1.25M | −28.7% | −47.7% | −54.3% | |
| ANKR | Ankr exploited for $410k | +0.76% | +8.9% | +27.0% | |
| BAL | Balancer V1 exploited for $234k | open | open | open | |
| AVICI | Avici exploited for $500.86k | −12.4% | −32.7% | −32.3% |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 15, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from hacks at 1 day, so the 122 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (30% against 46% over 105 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −4.6% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +4.0% and one in 10 beyond −23.9%.
Calls made from hacks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 122 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 122 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what hacks did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a hack?
- In 71% of 122 cases from Jan 6, 2019 to Oct 7, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 30% against 46% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −4.6% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +4.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −23.9% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 122 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −4.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 14, 2026: UNCX Network V2 exploited for $86k.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 15, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.6% in 2023 (15 cases) and −7.6% in 2021 (11 cases).