Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin the day after negative funding on a third day up?
Short answer
The middle case of 1,083 since 2019 saw a coin move −0.50% the day after negative funding on a third day up. Lower was the outcome 57% of the time. The best tenth gained +7.8% or better and the worst tenth −7.3% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.50%
the next day, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+7.8%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−7.3%
or worse
Cases
1,083
2019-2026, on 287 days
Higher 42% of the time against 47% on ordinary days (287 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,083 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day whose perpetual funding (Binance's, else Hyperliquid's) averaged below zero while the coin closed higher 3 days running, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,083 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 1,083 measured cases on 287 separate days, from Oct 2, 2019 to Oct 18, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 20, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Negative funding means traders holding short positions pay the longs to keep them open. When that happens on the third straight day up, the shorts are paying to bet against a rise that keeps going. Traders watch for them to close, which can push the price further; others read it as a rise without conviction.
That is the reasoning behind watching negative funding on rises; whether it held over our 1,083 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,083 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 287 of the 287 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,083 cases fall on 287 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results290 up · 508 down
Results
as of · every past case, Oct 2, 2019 to Oct 18, 2026
Of the 1,083 cases, 290 ended up, 508 down and 285 sideways (within ±1.6%) a day later; the middle case −0.50%, the average day +0.51%.
ended up (290)ended down (508)sideways, within ±1.6% (285)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 1,083 287 days | −0.50% | −0.31% | 42% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,074 283 days | −2.2% | −2.2% | 39% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 744 236 days | −6.7% | −9.6% | 35% | 35% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.2% over 1,074 cases; 30 days, typical −6.7% over 744 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −4.5% in 2021 to +1.4% in 2022; 5 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.21% over 100 cases; mid caps −0.90% over 213 cases; small caps −0.86% over 402 cases; micro caps −1.2% over 368 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | −1.6% | 0% | 100% |
| 2020 | 5 | +0.30% | 60% | 40% |
| 2021 | 3 | −4.5% | 33% | 67% |
| 2022 | 4 | +1.4% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 | 4 | +0.60% | 67% | 33% |
| 2024 | 4 | −1.5% | 25% | 75% |
| 2025 | 266 | −0.79% | 39% | 60% |
| 2026 | 794 | −0.36% | 43% | 56% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 100 | +0.21% | 53% | 47% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 213 | −0.90% | 40% | 59% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 402 | −0.86% | 38% | 60% |
| under $50M micro caps | 368 | −1.2% | 42% | 57% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTC | GTC +29.9% that day | open | open | open | |
| JST | JST +0.1% that day | +3.6% | open | open | |
| AXL | AXL +1.6% that day | −4.6% | open | open | |
| BR | BR +2.5% that day | +53.8% | open | open | |
| ICNT | ICNT +19.7% that day | −5.0% | open | open | |
| LPT | LPT +0.1% that day | −0.73% | open | open | |
| DUSK | DUSK +7.8% that day | +12.2% | open | open | |
| AVA | AVA +13.1% that day | +6.2% | open | open | |
| RSR | RSR +32.2% that day | −5.3% | −15.5% | open | |
| RED | RED +1.4% that day | +1.5% | −10.0% | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 20, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from negative funding on rises at 1 day, so the 1,083 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 42% of 287 days ended higher against 47% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (36% to 48%).
The typical move of −0.50% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−7.3% to +7.8%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from negative funding on rises have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,083 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,083 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what negative funding on rises did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after negative funding on a third day up?
- In 57% of 1,083 cases from Oct 2, 2019 to Oct 18, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 42% against 47% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −0.50% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.8% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −7.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 1,083 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.50% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 19, 2026: GTC +29.9% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 20, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +1.4% in 2022 (4 cases) and −4.5% in 2021 (3 cases).