Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after seven up days in a row?
Short answer
Across 2,337 cases since 2017, the typical move for a coin the day after seven up days in a row was −0.51%. Lower was the outcome 56% of the time. The best tenth gained +9.3% or better and the worst tenth −8.7% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.51%
the next day, the middle case
How often
56%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+9.3%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−8.7%
or worse
Cases
2,337
2017-2026, on 652 days
Higher 44% of the time against 49% on ordinary days (591 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern2,337 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the 7th higher close in a row, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 2,337 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 2,337 measured cases on 652 separate days, from Dec 6, 2017 to Oct 13, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 18, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Seven higher closes in a row is a strong run. Momentum traders follow such runs; others expect the coin to need a rest once the buyers who chased it are in.
That is the reasoning behind watching 7-day win streaks; whether it held over our 2,337 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 2,337 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 591 of the 652 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 2,337 cases fall on 652 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results743 up · 908 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 6, 2017 to Oct 13, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at −0.51% and the average day at +0.19%; 743 cases ended up, 908 down and 686 sideways (within ±1.6%).
ended up (743)ended down (908)sideways, within ±1.6% (686)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 2,337 652 days | −0.51% | −0.08% | 44% | 49% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 2,335 651 days | −0.79% | −1.0% | 46% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 2,110 607 days | −4.2% | −5.5% | 43% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −0.79% over 2,335 cases; 30 days, typical −4.2% over 2,110 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −3.1% in 2022 to +1.2% in 2018; 6 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.03% over 129 cases; mid caps −0.78% over 213 cases; small caps −0.75% over 571 cases; micro caps −0.55% over 1,424 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1 | +22.5% | 100% | 0% |
| 2018 | 4 | +1.2% | 50% | 50% |
| 2019 | 14 | −1.1% | 44% | 56% |
| 2020 | 68 | +0.68% | 57% | 43% |
| 2021 | 202 | −1.1% | 32% | 68% |
| 2022 | 111 | −3.1% | 20% | 80% |
| 2023 | 384 | −0.43% | 46% | 54% |
| 2024 | 554 | −0.20% | 48% | 52% |
| 2025 | 513 | 0.00% | 45% | 54% |
| 2026 | 486 | −0.30% | 46% | 54% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 129 | −0.03% | 48% | 52% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 213 | −0.78% | 45% | 55% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 571 | −0.75% | 43% | 57% |
| under $50M micro caps | 1,424 | −0.55% | 44% | 55% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOIL | SOIL +0.3% that day | open | open | open | |
| SHARE | SHARE +2.5% that day | −1.7% | open | open | |
| BTW | BTW +19.5% that day | +14.1% | open | open | |
| PDDON | PDDON +3.3% that day | +0.12% | +0.12% | open | |
| ORCA | ORCA +32.3% that day | −10.6% | −35.8% | open | |
| IMX | IMX +1.7% that day | −8.0% | −7.8% | open | |
| GRVT | GRVT +1.3% that day | −1.6% | −8.7% | open | |
| TQQQON | TQQQON +2.2% that day | +0.78% | −5.6% | open | |
| DJI6930 | DJI6930 +11.3% that day | −2.5% | −21.5% | open | |
| OTK | OTK +1.5% that day | +7.4% | +331.1% | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 18, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from 7-day win streaks at 1 day, so the 2,337 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (44% against 49% over 591 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −0.51% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +9.3% and one in 10 beyond −8.7%.
Calls made from 7-day win streaks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 2,337 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 2,337 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 7-day win streaks did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after seven up days in a row?
- In 56% of 2,337 cases from Dec 6, 2017 to Oct 13, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 44% against 49% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −0.51% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +9.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −8.7% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 2,337 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.51% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 17, 2026: SOIL +0.3% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 18, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.2% in 2018 (4 cases) and −3.1% in 2022 (111 cases).