Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises?
Short answer
Across 1,709 cases since 2021, the typical move for a coin in the 30 days after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises was −4.0%. Lower was the outcome 58% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +36.5% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −29.8% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−4.0%
over the next 30 days, the middle case
How often
58%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+36.5%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−29.8%
or worse
Cases
1,709
2021-2026, on 770 days
Higher 42% of the time against 38% on ordinary days (770 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,709 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a share of Bybit accounts long on the coin in the bottom 5% of its own past year of readings while our close rose 2% or more over the 3 days to the reading; counted from the close of the day after it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,709 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later.
In our data that gives 1,709 measured cases on 770 separate days, from Sep 7, 2021 to Sep 16, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 17, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When fewer Bybit accounts are long a coin than on almost any day of its past year while its price has been rising, the crowd is betting against a move that is already under way. Traders watch for a squeeze, short positions closing in a hurry and pushing the price further; others read the doubt as a sign the rise is weak.
That is the reasoning behind watching few Bybit longs in a rise; whether it held over our 1,709 cases since 2021 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 1,709 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 30 days later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (30-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 770 of the 770 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,709 cases fall on 770 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- A run of few Bybit longs in a rise within 30 days counts once, so no two of the 1,709 cases overlap.
§ 04 · Results492 up · 771 down
Results
as of · every past case, Sep 7, 2021 to Sep 16, 2026
30 days later, the middle case stood at −4.0% and the average day at +1.8%; 492 cases ended up, 771 down and 446 sideways (within ±8.2%).
ended up (492)ended down (771)sideways, within ±8.2% (446)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 2,583 924 days | −0.47% | −0.13% | 45% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 2,567 917 days | −1.7% | −1.3% | 42% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days this post | 1,709 770 days | −4.0% | −7.6% | 42% | 38% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical −0.47% over 2,583 cases; 7 days, typical −1.7% over 2,567 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −26.3% in 2021 to +0.24% in 2024; 5 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.86% over 208 cases; mid caps −4.0% over 317 cases; small caps −6.5% over 842 cases; micro caps −4.6% over 342 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | −26.3% | 25% | 75% |
| 2022 | 96 | −9.4% | 44% | 56% |
| 2023 | 210 | −0.30% | 50% | 50% |
| 2024 | 247 | +0.24% | 48% | 52% |
| 2025 | 541 | −10.0% | 32% | 68% |
| 2026 | 611 | −3.6% | 42% | 58% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 208 | +0.86% | 51% | 49% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 317 | −4.0% | 44% | 56% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 842 | −6.5% | 37% | 63% |
| under $50M micro caps | 342 | −4.6% | 41% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZEREBRO | ZEREBRO −37.0% that day | open | open | open | |
| WAL | WAL −12.2% that day | open | open | open | |
| TRUTH | TRUTH −26.0% that day | +13.0% | open | open | |
| Q | Q +2.0% that day | +12.0% | open | open | |
| RSR | RSR −5.0% that day | −0.71% | open | open | |
| IO | IO +2.3% that day | +2.5% | open | open | |
| TIA | TIA −8.7% that day | +8.2% | open | open | |
| ROSE | ROSE −8.8% that day | +0.12% | open | open | |
| CKB | CKB −23.0% that day | +5.2% | open | open | |
| CFX | CFX −14.8% that day | +0.28% | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 30-day window of the newest closes on Nov 15, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from few Bybit longs in a rise at 30 days, so the 1,709 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (42% against 38% over 770 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −4.0% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +36.5% and one in 10 beyond −29.8%.
Calls made from few Bybit longs in a rise have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,709 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,709 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what few Bybit longs in a rise did from 2021 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower in the 30 days after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises?
- In 58% of 1,709 cases from Sep 7, 2021 to Sep 16, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 42% against 38% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 30 days?
- The middle case moved −4.0% over the next 30 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +36.5% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −29.8% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 1,709 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −4.0% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 16, 2026: ZEREBRO −37.0% that day.
- Its 30-day window closes on Nov 15, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +0.24% in 2024 (247 cases) and −26.3% in 2021 (4 cases).