Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a mid-cap coin the day after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises?
Short answer
489 cases since 2022: in the middle one, a mid-cap coin moved −0.87% the day after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises. It ended lower 60% of the time. The best tenth gained +5.6% or better and the worst tenth −5.0% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.87%
the next day, the middle case
How often
60%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+5.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−5.0%
or worse
Cases
489
2022-2026, on 322 days
Higher 40% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (322 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern489 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a share of Bybit accounts long on the coin in the bottom 5% of its own past year of readings while our close rose 2% or more over the 3 days to the reading; counted from the close of the day after it, on a coin worth $500M to $5B that day (mid caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 489 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 489 measured cases on 322 separate days, from May 25, 2022 to Nov 3, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 6, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When fewer Bybit accounts are long a coin than on almost any day of its past year while its price has been rising, the crowd is betting against a move that is already under way. Traders watch for a squeeze, short positions closing in a hurry and pushing the price further; others read the doubt as a sign the rise is weak.
That is the reasoning behind watching few Bybit longs in a rise; whether it held over our 489 cases since 2022 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 489 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 322 of the 322 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 489 cases fall on 322 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results147 up · 229 down
Results
as of · every past case, May 25, 2022 to Nov 3, 2026
Of the 489 cases, 147 ended up, 229 down and 113 sideways (within ±1.3%) a day later; the middle case −0.87%, the average day −0.28%.
ended up (147)ended down (229)sideways, within ±1.3% (113)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 489 322 days | −0.87% | −0.26% | 40% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 486 319 days | −2.1% | −1.6% | 44% | 44% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 322 243 days | −4.0% | −7.4% | 43% | 37% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.1% over 486 cases; 30 days, typical −4.0% over 322 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.6% in 2025 to +0.50% in 2024; 4 of 5 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 31 | −1.1% | 29% | 71% |
| 2023 | 52 | −1.2% | 36% | 64% |
| 2024 | 54 | +0.50% | 53% | 47% |
| 2025 | 157 | −1.6% | 37% | 63% |
| 2026 | 195 | −0.72% | 41% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | STX +0.3% that day | +10.0% | open | open | |
| MORPHO | MORPHO −3.3% that day | −1.4% | open | open | |
| PEPE | PEPE +8.3% that day | +1.2% | open | open | |
| OKB | OKB −0.4% that day | −0.91% | +0.68% | open | |
| CRV | CRV −2.0% that day | −1.2% | −18.8% | open | |
| APT | APT −8.2% that day | −2.2% | −18.1% | open | |
| INJ | INJ +1.5% that day | −1.5% | −9.7% | open | |
| HBAR | HBAR +2.3% that day | −2.0% | −11.4% | −31.0% | |
| QNT | QNT +88.9% that day | −19.4% | −11.8% | −30.3% | |
| ENA | ENA +1.1% that day | −5.8% | −11.4% | −23.4% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from few Bybit longs in a rise at 1 day, so the 489 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a mid-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (40% against 48% over 322 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −0.87% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−5.0% to +5.6%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from few Bybit longs in a rise have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 489 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 489 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what few Bybit longs in a rise did from 2022 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a mid-cap coin end lower the day after a yearly low in Bybit longs while the price rises?
- In 60% of 489 cases from May 25, 2022 to Nov 3, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 40% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −0.87% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +5.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.0% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 489 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.87% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Nov 3, 2026: STX +0.3% that day.
- A day later the move was +10.0%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +0.50% in 2024 (54 cases) and −1.6% in 2025 (157 cases).