Daily research · Coin events · written
What happens to a coin the day after above-normal funding on a third day down?
Short answer
Across 273 cases since 2020, the typical move for a coin the day after above-normal funding on a third day down was +0.50%. It ended higher 54% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +7.9% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −5.9% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
+0.50%
the next day, the middle case
How often
54%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−5.9%
or worse
Cases
273
2020-2026, on 157 days
Higher 54% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (157 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern273 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day whose perpetual funding (Binance's, else Hyperliquid's) averaged above the exchanges' usual 0.01% per 8 hours while the coin closed lower 3 days running, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 273 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 273 measured cases on 157 separate days, from Jan 24, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 1, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Funding above its usual level means traders holding long positions pay extra to stay in. When that happens on the third straight day down, the longs are paying more to hold a falling coin. One reason traders watch this is the risk of those longs being forced out; another view is that holders this keen are early to a turn.
That is the reasoning behind watching longs paying up in falls; whether it held over our 273 cases since 2020 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 273 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 157 of the 157 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 273 cases fall on 157 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results101 up · 95 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 24, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +0.50% and the average day at +2.0%; 101 cases ended up, 95 down and 77 sideways (within ±1.5%).
ended up (101)ended down (95)sideways, within ±1.5% (77)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 273 157 days | +0.50% | −0.33% | 54% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 274 158 days | +0.13% | −1.1% | 50% | 47% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 162 114 days | −0.52% | −4.0% | 47% | 46% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +0.13% over 274 cases; 30 days, typical −0.52% over 162 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.77% in 2021 to +1.3% in 2024; 4 of 6 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.25% over 33 cases; mid caps +3.1% over 13 cases; small caps +0.62% over 40 cases; micro caps +0.32% over 187 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | +1.1% | 56% | 44% |
| 2021 | 15 | −0.77% | 42% | 58% |
| 2023 | 3 | −0.43% | 33% | 67% |
| 2024 | 5 | +1.3% | 100% | 0% |
| 2025 | 9 | +1.1% | 69% | 31% |
| 2026 | 231 | +0.52% | 53% | 47% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 33 | +0.25% | 53% | 47% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 13 | +3.1% | 73% | 27% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 40 | +0.62% | 52% | 48% |
| under $50M micro caps | 187 | +0.32% | 51% | 49% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGT | AGT −11.8% that day | open | open | open | |
| TRUTH | TRUTH −0.4% that day | +10.8% | +8.6% | open | |
| SIREN | SIREN −2.7% that day | +11.2% | +4.9% | open | |
| APR | APR −5.5% that day | +11.7% | +114.5% | open | |
| BLESS | BLESS −3.8% that day | +11.6% | +17.3% | open | |
| 4 | 4 −5.3% that day | +3.5% | −4.7% | open | |
| PURR | PURR −5.7% that day | −9.1% | −3.0% | open | |
| KGEN | KGEN −4.3% that day | −5.5% | +12.1% | open | |
| LAB | LAB −3.2% that day | +4.7% | −6.0% | open | |
| SWARMS | SWARMS −1.1% that day | −2.4% | −6.0% | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Nov 1, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from longs paying up in falls at 1 day, so the 273 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 54% of 157 days ended higher against 48% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (46% to 62%).
A typical +0.50% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +7.9% and one in 10 beyond −5.9%.
Calls made from longs paying up in falls have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 273 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 273 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what longs paying up in falls did from 2020 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end higher the day after above-normal funding on a third day down?
- In 54% of 273 cases from Jan 24, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 54% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +0.50% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.9% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 273 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The +0.50% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 31, 2026: AGT −11.8% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Nov 1, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.3% in 2024 (5 cases) and −0.77% in 2021 (15 cases).