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What happens to a micro-cap coin the day after a 90-day breakdown?

Short answer

The middle case of 10,508 since 2018 saw a micro-cap coin move +0.00% the day after a 90-day breakdown. 48% of the cases ended higher. The best 1 in 10 reached +5.2% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −5.5% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.

Typical move

+0.00%

the next day, the middle case

How often

48%

it ended higher

Best 1 in 10

+5.2%

or better

Worst 1 in 10

−5.5%

or worse

Cases

10,508

2018-2026, on 1,140 days

Higher 49% of the time against 45% on ordinary days (1,139 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.

10,508 cases from to · Past patterns, not financial advice

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§ 01 · The pattern10,508 cases

The pattern, exactly

as of · the rule, the data, the dates

A case is a close below every close of the 90 days before it, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.

Each of the 10,508 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.

In our data that gives 10,508 measured cases on 1,140 separate days, from Nov 14, 2018 to Oct 29, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 31, 2026.

§ 02 · Why it might work

Why it might work

as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise

A close below the whole 90-day range breaks the floor many holders were watching. Traders expect stop orders under the range to trigger, but breakdowns can also reverse.

That is the reasoning behind watching 90-day breakdowns; whether it held over our 10,508 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.

§ 03 · How we tested it

How we tested it

as of · our own closes, against ordinary days

  • We measured each of the 10,508 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
  • Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,139 of the 1,140 days had that many to compare.
  • Cases on the same day count as one day: the 10,508 cases fall on 1,140 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
  • Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.

§ 04 · Results3765 up · 3789 down

Results

as of · every past case, Nov 14, 2018 to Oct 29, 2026

Of the 10,508 cases, 3,765 ended up, 3,789 down and 2,954 sideways (within ±1.4%) a day later; the middle case +0.00%, the average day +0.02%.

Every drawn case's path the next day: 3765 cases ended up, 3789 down, 2954 sideways; the typical move +0.00%−10.0%0%+10.0%ARPA · Oct 20, 2020 · ARPA −7.8% that day · +0.83% a day laterKNC · Dec 10, 2021 · KNC −4.0% that day · +4.8% a day laterALCX · Mar 3, 2022 · ALCX −7.2% that day · −7.9% a day laterARPA · Jun 13, 2022 · ARPA −2.9% that day · −0.24% a day laterXNO · Oct 14, 2022 · XNO −2.8% that day · +0.14% a day laterLRC · Dec 28, 2022 · LRC −5.4% that day · −0.36% a day laterOGN · Jun 5, 2023 · OGN −10.8% that day · +3.1% a day laterMAGIC · Sep 10, 2023 · MAGIC −7.9% that day · −5.7% a day laterKCT · Apr 26, 2024 · KCT −13.3% that day · −3.3% a day laterBFC · Jun 11, 2024 · BFC −7.1% that day · +2.7% a day laterHEART · Jul 5, 2024 · HEART −17.3% that day · +4.8% a day laterASK · Aug 16, 2024 · ASK −5.6% that day · +1.9% a day laterGRND · Dec 9, 2024 · GRND −9.1% that day · −13.8% a day laterCERE · Feb 5, 2025 · CERE −4.6% that day · +2.9% a day laterPSG · Mar 5, 2025 · PSG −3.6% that day · −5.2% a day laterTRU · Apr 2, 2025 · TRU −6.5% that day · −0.95% a day laterFLUX · Jun 20, 2025 · FLUX −4.4% that day · −2.2% a day laterBONE · Sep 1, 2025 · BONE −4.4% that day · +2.2% a day laterOLAS · Sep 25, 2025 · OLAS −4.8% that day · +2.3% a day laterLUNA · Oct 10, 2025 · LUNA −33.5% that day · −0.11% a day laterTRU · Oct 22, 2025 · TRU −5.3% that day · +1.7% a day laterQUICK · Nov 3, 2025 · QUICK −12.5% that day · −2.5% a day laterHIPPO · Nov 15, 2025 · HIPPO −28.3% that day · +3.5% a day laterACE · Dec 1, 2025 · ACE −7.8% that day · +4.2% a day laterPOWR · Dec 12, 2025 · POWR −1.7% that day · +0.12% a day laterGME · Dec 25, 2025 · GME −3.8% that day · +1.7% a day laterFAI · Jan 21, 2026 · FAI −9.0% that day · −4.3% a day laterJUV · Jan 31, 2026 · JUV −5.6% that day · −1.8% a day laterMAV · Feb 19, 2026 · MAV −2.7% that day · −0.19% a day laterALCH · Mar 7, 2026 · ALCH −3.6% that day · +0.83% a day laterDAG · Mar 26, 2026 · DAG −2.2% that day · −1.4% a day laterCUMMIES · Apr 18, 2026 · CUMMIES −6.4% that day · +8.8% a day laterWET · May 22, 2026 · WET −5.5% that day · +2.7% a day laterSPA · Jun 4, 2026 · SPA −5.2% that day · −2.6% a day laterPIN · Jun 21, 2026 · PIN −11.6% that day · −0.09% a day laterACM · Jul 7, 2026 · ACM −2.4% that day · −0.70% a day laterC · Jul 23, 2026 · C −5.4% that day · −1.8% a day laterBUY · Aug 10, 2026 · BUY that day · −13.2% a day laterANON · Sep 9, 2026 · ANON −6.1% that day · −3.3% a day laterRECALL · Oct 18, 2026 · RECALL −5.3% that day · +0.67% a day later+0.00%typicalits day's close+1 day40 of 10,508 cases, each its own lineEvery drawn case's path the next day: 3765 cases ended up, 3789 down, 2954 sideways; the typical move +0.00%−10.0%0%+10.0%+0.00%its day's close+1 day40 of 10,508 cases, each its own line

ended up (3765)ended down (3789)sideways, within ±1.4% (2954)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection

1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days

AfterCasesTypical moveTypical, ordinary daysHigherHigher, ordinary daysAgainst ordinary days
1 day this post10,508
1,140 days		+0.00%−0.41%49%45%higher more often than on ordinary days
7 days10,394
1,130 days		−1.4%−2.5%43%41%no clear edge over ordinary days
30 days6,773
992 days		−6.3%−9.3%37%36%no clear edge over ordinary days

At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −1.4% over 10,394 cases; 30 days, typical −6.3% over 6,773 cases.

By year, the typical move ranged from −0.27% in 2026 to +1.5% in 2021; 5 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.

Year by year

Typical move by year: 2019 −0.19% over 59 cases; 2020 +0.20% over 115 cases; 2021 +1.5% over 238 cases; 2022 +0.10% over 1066 cases; 2023 +0.78% over 640 cases; 2024 0.00% over 1195 cases; 2025 −0.17% over 3468 cases; 2026 −0.27% over 3725 casesThe typical move a day later, year by year2019 · 59 cases · typical −0.19% · higher 48% · lower 52% · on 36 days2019592020 · 115 cases · typical +0.20% · higher 47% · lower 53% · on 42 days20201152021 · 238 cases · typical +1.5% · higher 57% · lower 43% · on 50 days20212382022 · 1,066 cases · typical +0.10% · higher 48% · lower 51% · on 128 days20221,0662023 · 640 cases · typical +0.78% · higher 61% · lower 38% · on 103 days20236402024 · 1,195 cases · typical 0.00% · higher 45% · lower 53% · on 197 days20241,1952025 · 3,468 cases · typical −0.17% · higher 48% · lower 51% · on 283 days20253,4682026 · 3,725 cases · typical −0.27% · higher 46% · lower 52% · on 299 days20263,725Typical move by year: 2019 −0.19% over 59 cases; 2020 +0.20% over 115 cases; 2021 +1.5% over 238 cases; 2022 +0.10% over 1066 cases; 2023 +0.78% over 640 cases; 2024 0.00% over 1195 cases; 2025 −0.17% over 3468 cases; 2026 −0.27% over 3725 casesThe typical move a day later, year by year2019 · 59 cases · typical −0.19% · higher 48% · lower 52% · on 36 days2019592020 · 115 cases · typical +0.20% · higher 47% · lower 53% · on 42 days20201152021 · 238 cases · typical +1.5% · higher 57% · lower 43% · on 50 days20212382022 · 1,066 cases · typical +0.10% · higher 48% · lower 51% · on 128 days20221,0662023 · 640 cases · typical +0.78% · higher 61% · lower 38% · on 103 days20236402024 · 1,195 cases · typical 0.00% · higher 45% · lower 53% · on 197 days20241,1952025 · 3,468 cases · typical −0.17% · higher 48% · lower 51% · on 283 days20253,4682026 · 3,725 cases · typical −0.27% · higher 46% · lower 52% · on 299 days20263,725
YearCasesTypical moveHigherLower
20182−2.9%0%100%
201959−0.19%48%52%
2020115+0.20%47%53%
2021238+1.5%57%43%
20221,066+0.10%48%51%
2023640+0.78%61%38%
20241,1950.00%45%53%
20253,468−0.17%48%51%
20263,725−0.27%46%52%

The latest 10 cases

DayCoinWhat happened1 day7 days30 days
WELLWELL −10.4% that dayopenopenopen
VVSVVS −10.6% that dayopenopenopen
TQQQONTQQQON −6.8% that dayopenopenopen
SEDASEDA −2.7% that dayopenopenopen
RBNTRBNT −2.2% that dayopenopenopen
NEONNEON −21.2% that dayopenopenopen
MOCHIMOCHI −11.9% that dayopenopenopen
MNSRYMNSRY −0.8% that dayopenopenopen
HOODXHOODX −2.1% that dayopenopenopen
GPSGPS −4.3% that dayopenopenopen

10 cases still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 31, 2026.

Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .

§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample

Out of sample

as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw

Out of sample, calls made from 90-day breakdowns showed no clear edge: right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day (Apr 2, 2025 – Jun 5, 2025).

The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 10,508 cases here.

§ 06 · Verdict

Verdict

as of · plain, with the caveats

In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (49% against 45% over 1,139 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.

The typical move of +0.00% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−5.5% to +5.2%): single cases went either way by far more.

Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day).

Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 10,508 cases, which flatters the older years.

Markets change, so what 90-day breakdowns did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.

§ 07 · Questions

Questions

as of · answered from the numbers above

How often did a micro-cap coin end higher the day after a 90-day breakdown?
  • In 48% of 10,508 cases from Nov 14, 2018 to Oct 29, 2026.
  • Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 49% against 45% on each coin's own ordinary days.
How big was the move the next day?
  • The middle case moved +0.00% the next day.
  • The best 1 in 10 reached +5.2% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.5% or less.
Can you trade on this?
  • Not on its own: over 10,508 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day).
  • The +0.00% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
When did it last happen?
  • The latest was on Oct 30, 2026: WELL −10.4% that day.
  • Its 1-day window closes on Oct 31, 2026.
Did it work the same every year?
No. The typical move was +1.5% in 2021 (238 cases) and −0.27% in 2026 (3,725 cases).