Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a 90-day breakdown?
Short answer
14,736 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a coin moved +0.16% the day after a 90-day breakdown. It ended higher 50% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +5.0% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −5.4% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+0.16%
the next day, the middle case
How often
50%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+5.0%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−5.4%
or worse
Cases
14,736
2018-2026, on 1,239 days
Higher 50% of the time against 46% on ordinary days (1,238 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern14,736 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close below every close of the 90 days before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 14,736 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 14,736 measured cases on 1,239 separate days, from Mar 14, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 10, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A close below the whole 90-day range breaks the floor many holders were watching. Traders expect stop orders under the range to trigger, but breakdowns can also reverse.
That is the reasoning behind watching 90-day breakdowns; whether it held over our 14,736 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 14,736 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,238 of the 1,239 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 14,736 cases fall on 1,239 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results5413 up · 5226 down
Results
as of · every past case, Mar 14, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026
Of the 14,736 cases, 5,413 ended up, 5,226 down and 4,097 sideways (within ±1.4%) a day later; the middle case +0.16%, the average day +0.15%.
ended up (5413)ended down (5226)sideways, within ±1.4% (4097)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 14,736 1,239 days | +0.16% | −0.36% | 50% | 46% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 14,691 1,232 days | −0.87% | −2.2% | 45% | 42% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 9,668 1,070 days | −5.2% | −8.4% | 39% | 37% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −0.87% over 14,691 cases; 30 days, typical −5.2% over 9,668 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.20% in 2024 to +1.1% in 2021; 6 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.31% over 523 cases; mid caps +0.20% over 1,081 cases; small caps +0.16% over 3,595 cases; micro caps +0.04% over 9,537 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 59 | +0.68% | 55% | 44% |
| 2019 | 203 | +0.39% | 52% | 48% |
| 2020 | 243 | +0.30% | 54% | 46% |
| 2021 | 487 | +1.1% | 54% | 46% |
| 2022 | 1,977 | +0.27% | 51% | 47% |
| 2023 | 1,084 | +0.57% | 57% | 42% |
| 2024 | 1,707 | −0.20% | 46% | 53% |
| 2025 | 4,641 | −0.05% | 49% | 50% |
| 2026 | 4,335 | −0.09% | 46% | 52% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 523 | +0.31% | 53% | 47% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 1,081 | +0.20% | 51% | 48% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 3,595 | +0.16% | 51% | 48% |
| under $50M micro caps | 9,537 | +0.04% | 49% | 50% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTIMA | ULTIMA −0.2% that day | open | open | open | |
| RBNT | RBNT −2.7% that day | open | open | open | |
| HOLD | HOLD −0.6% that day | open | open | open | |
| NIM | NIM −6.1% that day | +1.7% | open | open | |
| MYST | MYST −11.4% that day | −0.53% | open | open | |
| ZEREBRO | ZEREBRO −3.7% that day | +1.3% | open | open | |
| TRIA | TRIA −7.6% that day | +0.18% | open | open | |
| TAC | TAC −2.0% that day | −0.07% | open | open | |
| SQD | SQD −5.9% that day | +3.4% | open | open | |
| SLX | SLX −2.6% that day | +1.6% | open | open |
3 cases still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 11, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 90-day breakdowns showed no clear edge: right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day (Apr 2, 2025 – Jun 5, 2025).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 14,736 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (50% against 46% over 1,238 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +0.16% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−5.4% to +5.0%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 14,736 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 90-day breakdowns did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did a coin usually end higher the day after a 90-day breakdown?
- In 50% of 14,736 cases from Mar 14, 2018 to Oct 9, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 50% against 46% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved +0.16% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +5.0% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −5.4% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 14,736 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 0% of 3 calls since 2025, against 57% for that side on any day).
- The +0.16% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 10, 2026: ULTIMA −0.2% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 11, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +1.1% in 2021 (487 cases) and −0.20% in 2024 (1,707 cases).