Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after seven down days in a row?
Short answer
The middle case of 3,453 since 2017 saw a coin move −0.07% the day after seven down days in a row. Lower was the outcome 52% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +5.9% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −6.0% or less. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.07%
the next day, the middle case
How often
52%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+5.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.0%
or worse
Cases
3,453
2017-2026, on 837 days
Higher 47% of the time against 45% on ordinary days (750 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern3,453 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the 7th lower close in a row, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 3,453 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 3,453 measured cases on 837 separate days, from Oct 21, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 19, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
Seven lower closes in a row means steady pressure. Some traders bet on exhaustion and a bounce; others see a trend that is not done yet.
That is the reasoning behind watching 7-day losing streaks; whether it held over our 3,453 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 3,453 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 750 of the 837 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 3,453 cases fall on 837 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results1220 up · 1212 down
Results
as of · every past case, Oct 21, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026
Of the 3,453 cases, 1,220 ended up, 1,212 down and 1,021 sideways (within ±1.6%) a day later; the middle case −0.07%, the average day +0.32%.
ended up (1220)ended down (1212)sideways, within ±1.6% (1021)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 3,453 837 days | −0.07% | −0.42% | 47% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days | 3,393 826 days | −1.2% | −2.3% | 44% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 3,002 760 days | −7.1% | −7.9% | 37% | 39% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −1.2% over 3,393 cases; 30 days, typical −7.1% over 3,002 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.1% in 2018 to +2.3% in 2021; 4 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.93% over 93 cases; mid caps +0.41% over 210 cases; small caps +0.14% over 705 cases; micro caps −0.21% over 2,445 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | −0.11% | 50% | 50% |
| 2018 | 15 | −1.1% | 33% | 67% |
| 2019 | 32 | +0.41% | 58% | 42% |
| 2020 | 62 | +1.4% | 59% | 41% |
| 2021 | 104 | +2.3% | 54% | 46% |
| 2022 | 451 | +0.00% | 52% | 48% |
| 2023 | 103 | +0.40% | 54% | 45% |
| 2024 | 563 | −0.34% | 46% | 54% |
| 2025 | 1,001 | −0.19% | 46% | 54% |
| 2026 | 1,120 | −0.16% | 43% | 56% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 93 | +0.93% | 66% | 34% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 210 | +0.41% | 56% | 43% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 705 | +0.14% | 50% | 49% |
| under $50M micro caps | 2,445 | −0.21% | 45% | 55% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZIL | ZIL −2.5% that day | open | open | open | |
| ZIG | ZIG −1.7% that day | open | open | open | |
| FLUX | FLUX −4.3% that day | open | open | open | |
| XTER | XTER −0.1% that day | open | open | open | |
| W | W −6.1% that day | open | open | open | |
| TUT | TUT −3.3% that day | open | open | open | |
| TREE | TREE −4.2% that day | open | open | open | |
| TNSR | TNSR −2.5% that day | open | open | open | |
| SYRUP | SYRUP −3.3% that day | open | open | open | |
| ROBO | ROBO −6.3% that day | open | open | open |
10 cases still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 19, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from 7-day losing streaks at 1 day, so the 3,453 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 47% of 750 days ended higher against 45% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (44% to 51%).
A typical −0.07% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +5.9% and one in 10 beyond −6.0%.
Calls made from 7-day losing streaks have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 3,453 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
The older half of the days leaned +5 points against ordinary days and the newer half −1 point: the pattern has not been stable over time.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 3,453 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 7-day losing streaks did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after seven down days in a row?
- In 52% of 3,453 cases from Oct 21, 2017 to Oct 17, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 47% against 45% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −0.07% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +5.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.0% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 3,453 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.07% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 18, 2026: ZIL −2.5% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 19, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +2.3% in 2021 (104 cases) and −1.1% in 2018 (15 cases).