Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a 5% rise on a day Bitcoin fell 2%?
Short answer
Across 2,792 cases since 2019, the typical move for a coin the day after a 5% rise on a day Bitcoin fell 2% was −1.6%. Lower was the outcome 62% of the time. The best tenth gained +6.8% or better and the worst tenth −10.5% or worse. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−1.6%
the next day, the middle case
How often
62%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+6.8%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−10.5%
or worse
Cases
2,792
2019-2026, on 371 days
Higher 37% of the time against 49% on ordinary days (371 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern2,792 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close 5% or more above the coin's close before while Bitcoin's fell 2% or more over the same two closes, with 365 closes of the coin before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 2,792 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 2,792 measured cases on 371 separate days, from May 16, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 14, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A coin that closes 5% higher on a day Bitcoin fell 2% held up while the rest of the market was being sold. Some traders read that as demand of its own, holders who are not letting go; others see a one-day squeeze that fades once the market settles.
That is the reasoning behind watching rises on Bitcoin down days; whether it held over our 2,792 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 2,792 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 371 of the 371 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 2,792 cases fall on 371 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results752 up · 1261 down
Results
as of · every past case, May 16, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026
Of the 2,792 cases, 752 ended up, 1,261 down and 779 sideways (within ±2.7%) a day later; the middle case −1.6%, the average day −1.2%.
ended up (752)ended down (1261)sideways, within ±2.7% (779)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 2,792 371 days | −1.6% | −0.02% | 37% | 49% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 2,739 369 days | −2.9% | −0.42% | 39% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 2,212 356 days | −6.9% | −4.1% | 34% | 45% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.9% over 2,739 cases; 30 days, typical −6.9% over 2,212 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −3.3% in 2022 to +0.96% in 2019; 7 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps +0.55% over 100 cases; mid caps −0.14% over 227 cases; small caps −1.3% over 667 cases; micro caps −1.8% over 1,798 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 9 | +0.96% | 57% | 43% |
| 2020 | 49 | −2.4% | 34% | 66% |
| 2021 | 495 | −0.44% | 43% | 57% |
| 2022 | 272 | −3.3% | 31% | 68% |
| 2023 | 229 | −2.3% | 35% | 64% |
| 2024 | 370 | −1.0% | 43% | 57% |
| 2025 | 509 | −1.0% | 35% | 65% |
| 2026 | 859 | −2.5% | 33% | 67% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 100 | +0.55% | 50% | 50% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 227 | −0.14% | 48% | 51% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 667 | −1.3% | 40% | 60% |
| under $50M micro caps | 1,798 | −1.8% | 35% | 65% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAI | WAI +7.3% that day | −0.69% | open | open | |
| TRUTH | TRUTH +5.0% that day | +33.6% | open | open | |
| TLOS | TLOS +10.4% that day | −1.1% | open | open | |
| TET | TET +28.6% that day | −4.3% | open | open | |
| SPS | SPS +6.9% that day | −1.9% | open | open | |
| SOUL | SOUL +12.9% that day | −9.9% | open | open | |
| SKL | SKL +8.6% that day | −2.4% | open | open | |
| SAFE | SAFE +11.2% that day | +3.0% | open | open | |
| RSR | RSR +32.2% that day | −5.3% | open | open | |
| OSMO | OSMO +38.7% that day | −19.2% | open | open |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from rises on Bitcoin down days showed no clear edge: right 71% of 14 calls since 2023, against 52% for that side on any day (Jul 14, 2023 – Aug 28, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 2,792 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (37% against 49% over 371 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −1.6% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−10.5% to +6.8%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 71% of 14 calls since 2023, against 52% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 2,792 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what rises on Bitcoin down days did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a 5% rise on a day Bitcoin fell 2%?
- In 62% of 2,792 cases from May 16, 2019 to Oct 12, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 37% against 49% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −1.6% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.8% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −10.5% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 2,792 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 71% of 14 calls since 2023, against 52% for that side on any day).
- The −1.6% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: WAI +7.3% that day.
- A day later the move was −0.69%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +0.96% in 2019 (9 cases) and −3.3% in 2022 (272 cases).