Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a 50% bounce from 80% below its high?
Short answer
1,591 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a coin moved −4.9% the day after a 50% bounce from 80% below its high. It ended lower 66% of the time. The best tenth gained +15.7% or better and the worst tenth −19.0% or worse. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−4.9%
the next day, the middle case
How often
66%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+15.7%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−19.0%
or worse
Cases
1,591
2018-2026, on 805 days
Higher 34% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (805 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,591 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close 50% or more above the lowest close of the 7 days before it, that low 80% or more below the highest close on file before the day, with 365 closes of the coin before it, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,591 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 1,591 measured cases on 805 separate days, from Dec 23, 2018 to Oct 14, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 16, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
After a fall of 80% or more from its high, a coin that jumps 50% within a week draws attention fast. Some traders see the start of a recovery once the sellers are exhausted; many others expect a relief rally that fades, as holders sitting on large losses use the jump to get out.
That is the reasoning behind watching deep drawdown bounces; whether it held over our 1,591 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,591 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 805 of the 805 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,591 cases fall on 805 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results373 up · 832 down
Results
as of · every past case, Dec 23, 2018 to Oct 14, 2026
Of the 1,591 cases, 373 ended up, 832 down and 386 sideways (within ±4.4%) a day later; the middle case −4.9%, the average day −1.4%.
ended up (373)ended down (832)sideways, within ±4.4% (386)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 1,591 805 days | −4.9% | −0.16% | 34% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,569 798 days | −7.8% | −1.6% | 33% | 44% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 1,277 718 days | −15.8% | −8.8% | 34% | 37% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −7.8% over 1,569 cases; 30 days, typical −15.8% over 1,277 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −6.8% in 2019 to −2.0% in 2021; 8 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −3.9% over 36 cases; mid caps −2.9% over 117 cases; small caps −3.1% over 390 cases; micro caps −6.2% over 1,048 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | +7.0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2019 | 7 | −6.8% | 0% | 100% |
| 2020 | 19 | −3.7% | 33% | 67% |
| 2021 | 30 | −2.0% | 43% | 57% |
| 2022 | 155 | −5.4% | 33% | 67% |
| 2023 | 196 | −4.1% | 32% | 68% |
| 2024 | 261 | −3.6% | 35% | 65% |
| 2025 | 312 | −6.0% | 33% | 67% |
| 2026 | 610 | −5.1% | 35% | 65% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 36 | −3.9% | 26% | 74% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 117 | −2.9% | 40% | 60% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 390 | −3.1% | 37% | 63% |
| under $50M micro caps | 1,048 | −6.2% | 32% | 68% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICNT | ICNT +37.6% that day | open | open | open | |
| ALEO | ALEO +23.3% that day | open | open | open | |
| ZEREBRO | ZEREBRO +71.2% that day | +9.0% | open | open | |
| WAL | WAL +51.7% that day | −13.1% | open | open | |
| METFI | METFI +60.8% that day | −25.5% | open | open | |
| GNS | GNS +93.5% that day | −25.4% | open | open | |
| OSMO | OSMO +38.7% that day | −19.2% | open | open | |
| MAT | MAT +40.0% that day | +49.9% | open | open | |
| W | W +25.0% that day | −14.1% | open | open | |
| S | S +28.8% that day | −7.2% | open | open |
2 cases still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 16, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from deep drawdown bounces at 1 day, so the 1,591 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (34% against 48% over 805 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of −4.9% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−19.0% to +15.7%): single cases went either way by far more.
Calls made from deep drawdown bounces have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 1,591 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,591 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what deep drawdown bounces did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a 50% bounce from 80% below its high?
- In 66% of 1,591 cases from Dec 23, 2018 to Oct 14, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 34% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved −4.9% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +15.7% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −19.0% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 1,591 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −4.9% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 15, 2026: ICNT +37.6% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 16, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was −2.0% in 2021 (30 cases) and −6.8% in 2019 (7 cases).