Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a small-cap coin the day after a crash day?
Short answer
Across 1,276 cases since 2018, the typical move for a small-cap coin the day after a crash day was +0.46%. 54% of the cases ended higher. The best 1 in 10 reached +8.6% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −8.6% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+0.46%
the next day, the middle case
How often
54%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+8.6%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−8.6%
or worse
Cases
1,276
2018-2026, on 271 days
Higher 54% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (261 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern1,276 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin fell at least 3 times its usual daily move over the 60 days before, and at least 5%, on a coin worth $50M to $500M that day (small caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 1,276 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 1,276 measured cases on 271 separate days, from Aug 8, 2018 to Oct 18, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 21, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A crash day, a fall of three times the coin's usual daily move, can come with forced exits. One reason traders watch the next days is the idea that panic overshoots and partly snaps back.
That is the reasoning behind watching crash days; whether it held over our 1,276 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 1,276 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 261 of the 271 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 1,276 cases fall on 271 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results521 up · 390 down
Results
as of · every past case, Aug 8, 2018 to Oct 18, 2026
Of the 1,276 cases, 521 ended up, 390 down and 365 sideways (within ±2.3%) a day later; the middle case +0.46%, the average day +0.90%.
ended up (521)ended down (390)sideways, within ±2.3% (365)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 1,276 271 days | +0.46% | −0.18% | 54% | 48% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 1,268 264 days | −0.95% | −1.1% | 47% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 1,154 236 days | −4.1% | −5.3% | 45% | 40% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −0.95% over 1,268 cases; 30 days, typical −4.1% over 1,154 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −0.78% in 2026 to +4.7% in 2020; 8 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 10 | +0.00% | 62% | 38% |
| 2019 | 19 | +2.7% | 84% | 16% |
| 2020 | 73 | +4.7% | 79% | 21% |
| 2021 | 110 | +1.7% | 59% | 41% |
| 2022 | 190 | +1.6% | 53% | 46% |
| 2023 | 171 | +0.13% | 49% | 50% |
| 2024 | 177 | +1.2% | 59% | 40% |
| 2025 | 255 | +0.47% | 53% | 47% |
| 2026 | 271 | −0.78% | 49% | 51% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MX | MX −10.0% that day | open | open | open | |
| A | A −19.3% that day | −1.9% | open | open | |
| XPR | XPR −10.9% that day | −1.2% | open | open | |
| ZIL | ZIL −24.3% that day | −8.2% | open | open | |
| MMT | MMT −14.7% that day | +1.1% | open | open | |
| SAFE | SAFE −14.4% that day | +4.7% | open | open | |
| CKB | CKB −23.0% that day | +5.2% | −1.5% | open | |
| CFX | CFX −14.8% that day | +0.28% | −8.5% | open | |
| BOME | BOME −28.8% that day | +1.3% | −22.9% | open | |
| BLUR | BLUR −27.9% that day | −14.0% | −32.2% | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 21, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from crash days showed no clear edge: right 50% of 12 calls since 2024, against 46% for that side on any day (Mar 5, 2024 – Jun 5, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 1,276 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a small-cap coin ended higher more often than on ordinary days (54% against 48% over 261 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +0.46% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−8.6% to +8.6%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 50% of 12 calls since 2024, against 46% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 1,276 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what crash days did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a small-cap coin end higher the day after a crash day?
- In 54% of 1,276 cases from Aug 8, 2018 to Oct 18, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 54% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- What was the typical move?
- The middle case moved +0.46% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +8.6% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −8.6% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 1,276 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 50% of 12 calls since 2024, against 46% for that side on any day).
- The +0.46% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 20, 2026: MX −10.0% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 21, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +4.7% in 2020 (73 cases) and −0.78% in 2026 (271 cases).